Invest 99L Thread #6

[Opal storm]

NHC pretty much putting a fork in it. Don't blame them, so am I.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION HAS DIMINISHED. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD BRINGING
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Possible shear?

[astrosbaseball22]

ehhh if they say its dead its dead lol

[Ivanhater]

Finally its done!..Bout time it picked the way it wanted to go

[weatherguru18]

Well you lost the convection. Overall you still have a system there with an anemic cyclonic flow. But you still have it. The energy did not go away. It's just sick. Satellite continues to display decent outflow and convergence is anything but defunt. As this continues on a west then wnw track, I think you will see this thing slowly develop. I'll go out on a flimsy limb and say you won't see development for 36 to 48 more hours...but you will see it. EVEN IF it's only a depression.

[alan1961]

its sure living up to its name is the " caribbean graveyard "

[tolakram]

I think it's possible that convection will begin to fire around that new swirl (not calling it a LLC) that can be seen on the latest loops. This reminds me of the reorganization it went through ... was it two nights ago, where the next day it looked to be developing nicely and then the convection separated from the center and died out quickly.

Honestly I don't have a scientifically valid clue, but that's what I'll be watching.

[windstorm99]

Things should be a different story in 2-3 weeks or so.

[Brent]

NEXT!

[HURAKAN]

530 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2007

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY AND THAT THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
ALSO INCREASED. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHEN THE SYSTEM
REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A DAY OT TWO. IF NECESSARY...
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. EVEN
IF DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR...THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SQUALLY
WEATHER TO JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AMERICA IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

_____________________________________________________

1030 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION HAS DIMINISHED. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD BRINGING
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

______________________

Drastic thinking change in 5 hours. They are not even going to wait for the diurnal maximum before unplugging 99L.

[Ivanhater]

well we can move on with our lives now!...I think next week , we can really start tracking some REAL storms

[Thunder44]

I agree with the latest TWO. I'm not saying the system is "dead", but I think it more likely to run into Central America without developing. It's just moving too fast now and convection is not persisting long enough to close off a LLC.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Bye bye 99L[*]

[HURAKAN]

Does this mean that the NHC thinks the system will not slow down in the next two days?

[vaffie]

When all seems lost, it may yet revive. I think the next three hours will be interesting. It did not live up to expectations today, but for the first time, it now has beautiful spiral bands stretching as much as 500 miles in all directions that may well be feeding the center with moisture, a center that may be about to explode with activity. We will have to see what happens tonight.

[HouTXmetro]

RIP

[astrosbaseball22]

[Ed Mahmoud]

The wave behind it doesn't look as good either. The one coming off Africa looks great, but the last couple looked good over Africa. Maybe the busy cycle that started in 1995 is ending, ad we are back to the standard 7 to 10 storms per year.



Even the down part of the cycle featured the occasional Camille, Gilbert, Hugo and Andrew...

[astrosbaseball22]

channel 26 here in houston says NHC is going to fly it tomrrow.

[HURAKAN]

The wave behind it doesn't look as good either. The one coming off Africa looks great, but the last couple looked good over Africa. Maybe the busy cycle that started in 1995 is ending, ad we are back to the standard 7 to 10 storms per year.



Even the down part of the cycle featured the occasional Camille, Gilbert, Hugo and Andrew...

I'm just tired of saying the same thing over, and over again.

Good night everyone and see you tomorrow, have the RECON ready just in case!