Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

[Opal storm]

I've been getting a steady rain for over an hour now, this is nice.

But it looks like the low is about to go inland.

[Noles2006]

Yep, a tiny circulation is in the Apalachee Bay... not moving much and not a threat to develop any further...

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030903
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

[wxman57]

Certainly nothing to fly recon into today. A piece of energy is moving NE across southeast GA now. May form a low out in the Atlantic as it heads out to sea. But back in the Gulf, not much there now. I don't think we'll see any development out of what's left.

[Meso]

I think this is what the CMC is showing doing a very weeeird track : loop : http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ronjon]

THE FOLLOWING ARE PRELIMINARY AND UNOFFICIAL RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
PRIMARY PERIOD OF DISTURBED WEATHER BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT ON JULY
31ST THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING AT SELECTED LOCATIONS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA:

TOTAL
OBSERVING SITE COUNTY RAINFALL
(INCHES)

...AIRPORTS...
ST PETE/CLEARWATER INTL PINELLAS 7.33
TAMPA INTL HILLSBOROUGH 7.16
ST PETE/ALBERT WHITTED PINELLAS 6.53
MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE HILLSBOROUGH 5.70
PETER O KNIGHT ARPT/TAMPA HILLSBOROUGH 5.07
BROOKSVILLE/HERNANDO CO HERNANDO 4.79
LAKELAND LINDER POLK 2.95
SARASOTA/BRADENTON MANATEE 1.97
FORT MYERS/SOUTHWEST INTL LEE 1.55
WINTER HAVEN/GILBERT FIELD POLK 1.13
PUNTA GORDA/CHARLOTTE CO CHARLOTTE 1.04
FORT MYERS/PAGE FIELD LEE 0.58


...OTHERS...

DUNEDIN 1 NE PINELLAS 12.51
DUNEDIN PINELLAS 11.00
CLEARWATER (ALLIGATOR CREEK) PINELLAS 9.08
CLEARWATER 3 NE PINELLAS 8.84
OLDSMAR/OUTFALL CANAL PINELLAS 6.34
PINELLAS PARK PINELLAS 5.85
OLDSMAR PINELLAS 5.82
LARGO (MCKAY CREEK) PINELLAS 5.77
WIMAUMA HILLSBOROUGH 5.56
SUN CITY CENTER HILLSBOROUGH 5.16
SUN CITY CENTER HILLSBOROUGH 4.95
TOWN N COUNTRY 2 NW HILLSBOROUGH 4.94
2 NW OLDSMAR PINELLAS 4.66
RUSKIN/NWS HILLSBOROUGH 4.60
LARGO 3 SE PINELLAS 4.18
PALM RIVER-CLAIR MEL HILLSBOROUGH 4.17
SAN ANTONIO 1 SE PASCO 4.12
PINELLAS PARK (PINEBROOK CANAL) PINELLAS 4.06
TARPON SPRINGS 5 E (BROOKER CREEK) PINELLAS 3.94
ST LEO PASCO 3.63
TAMPA/UNIVERSITY VILLAGE HILLSBOROUGH 3.59
TAMPA DELANEY CREEK HILLSBOROUGH 3.49
BRADENTON 3 SE MANATEE 3.48
BROOKSVILLE CHIN HILL HERNANDO 3.15
TARPON SPRINGS 3 SE PINELLAS 3.13
CHIEFLAND 5 SE LEVY 3.10
MASARYKTOWN 4 SW PASCO 3.07
FORT GREEN HARDEE 2.98
VALRICO HILLSBOROUGH 2.89
TEMPLE TERRACE 2 NE HILLSBOROUGH 2.09

[jdray]

That nasty stuff moved just to my west last night.

At one point, the cloud to ground lightning was loud enough to rattle the car keys I had on my desk.....

[punkyg]

Florida storm maybe and possible 5 other storms which i doubt will
happen.

[Meso]

funnily enough the Nogaps showed a similar scenario to the CMC,just not moving that far east,it still developed something coming off the coast and then moved it west,south,and then looped it north again.. Models have been showing it develop when it comes off the east coast for a while as far as I can remember.. oh well.. shall see

[Cyclone1]

That is a bizzare track, Meso. O_O

[Chacor]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT FRI 03 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-072

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: INVESTS IN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO
FOR 03/1600Z AND 03/1800Z RESPECTIVELY BOTH
CANCELED BY NHC AT 03/1130Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[stormy70]

We had some pretty bad weather over here last night but it is beautiful today. The local mets are not talking about this one as much as they were yesterday. Could bring afternoon showers which are common for down here.

[inda_iwall]

Nothing like watching disturbance just fade away **POOF** its gone! Excellent, no storms on the horizon, Mother Nature is playing nice so far.

[jasons2k]

From my Aunt in Dunedin:

8/1 5P - 8/2 4:30P = 4.8 inches.

48 hour total = 10.5 inches.

[RL3AO]

Looks like the CMC is taking care of Dean through Humberto next week.

[skysummit]

Looks like the CMC is taking care of Dean through Humberto next week.

LOL...I saw that. It's spitting them out in rapid fire mode. Good ole' CMC. You know it'll get one right!

[Stormcenter]

Do I see a spin forming south of central LA.?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[lrak]

I see it!

Just don't know if it LLC MLC ULLC

[skysummit]

Stormcenter, there does seem to be some type of slight rotation down there looking at visible and radar imagery out of Lake Charles. The circled surface obs also verifty this. Not sure if it's much though.

[wxman57]

Nothing there, folks. No rotation. Pressures continue to rise in the northern Gulf, averaging 1015-1018mb. Not good for development now. The window of opportunity is closing (probably already closed).