Philip Klotzbach/Gray's remainder of season numbers=13/8/4

[flwxwatcher]

The updated info is at the bottom of the page

http://www.pcwp.com/newsletter082007.htm

[dwg71]

so he is saying 16/8/4 for season totals, still rather bullish.

I still say lower around 13/6/2.

[miamicanes177]

15/8/4 because he does not believe any STS should qualify.

[dwg71]

I didnt read it too closely or know that, so I guess he is making a stand against the NHC.. good for him

[Agua]

Remainder of season 13/8/4

[SCHurricane]

So I see that forecast is from PC Weather Products. Dr Gray's website has no update today and says its scheduled to be released tomorrow?? What gives????

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Bob King's Blog at the PalmBeachPost.com has a post on the leak. Bob contacted the university, but is still awaiting comment regarding the purported leak.

And remember, previous 'leaks' have had incorrect data in them!

[SCHurricane]

Exactly my point...unless it comes from the source, disregard...

[Jam151]

PCWP isn't some whack job site....it's legit.

[SCHurricane]

I know they are a legit site and the forecast they apparently got from a leak may be right as well. But, too often, that stuff hits air and ends up being wrong. Frankly...whether there are 5 or 15 storms doesnt matter, it only matters if you get hit. Who cares if they lower the number of storms by 2 or 3...we don't know where any of them are going until they form...and that's suspect at times!

[DESTRUCTION5]

13/8/4 still to go...Thats a season in its self..and a busy one at that!!

[cycloneye]

- ABSTRACT -
Information obtained through July 2007 continues to indicate that the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We have reduced our forecast slightly from our early April and late May predictions. We now estimate that 2007 will have about 8 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 15 named storms (average is 9.6), and 4 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 130 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2007 to be about 160 percent of the long-term average.

This early August forecast is based on a newly devised extended range statistical forecast procedure which was developed on 40 years of past global reanalysis data and is then tested on an additional 15 years of global reanalysis data. In addition, this new statistical forecast procedure has shown comparable skill during the first half of the 20th century. Overall, the scheme explains over 50 percent of the variance in Net Tropical Cyclone activity from 1900-2005.

We have lowered our forecast from our early April and late May predictions due to slightly less favorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic. Sea surface temperature anomalies have cooled across the tropical Atlantic in recent weeks, and there have been several significant dust outbreaks from Africa, signifying a generally stable air mass over the tropical Atlantic. ENSO conditions have trended slightly cooler over the past few weeks. We expect either cool neutral or weak La Niña conditions to be present during the upcoming hurricane season. Our final forecast is a combination of our statistical forecast, an analog forecast technique and qualitative adjustments based upon other atmospheric and oceanic patterns that are not implicitly considered in our quantitative approaches.

The above from the Abstract of the Colorado team August forecast.

Even if they lowered the numbers,still 13/8/4 is above average.But it's not about the numbers,but about where will the systems that form will go.And it takes only one to do the damage and change the lives of the people where a system strikes.

[DESTRUCTION5]

- ABSTRACT -
Information obtained through July 2007 continues to indicate that the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We have reduced our forecast slightly from our early April and late May predictions. We now estimate that 2007 will have about 8 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 15 named storms (average is 9.6), and 4 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 130 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2007 to be about 160 percent of the long-term average.

This early August forecast is based on a newly devised extended range statistical forecast procedure which was developed on 40 years of past global reanalysis data and is then tested on an additional 15 years of global reanalysis data. In addition, this new statistical forecast procedure has shown comparable skill during the first half of the 20th century. Overall, the scheme explains over 50 percent of the variance in Net Tropical Cyclone activity from 1900-2005.

We have lowered our forecast from our early April and late May predictions due to slightly less favorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic. Sea surface temperature anomalies have cooled across the tropical Atlantic in recent weeks, and there have been several significant dust outbreaks from Africa, signifying a generally stable air mass over the tropical Atlantic. ENSO conditions have trended slightly cooler over the past few weeks. We expect either cool neutral or weak La Niña conditions to be present during the upcoming hurricane season. Our final forecast is a combination of our statistical forecast, an analog forecast technique and qualitative adjustments based upon other atmospheric and oceanic patterns that are not implicitly considered in our quantitative approaches.

The above from the Abstract of the Colorado team August forecast.

Even if they lowered the numbers,still 13/8/4 is above average.But it's not about the numbers,but about where will the systems that form will go.And it takes only one to do the damage and change the lives of the people where a system strikes.

Luis i think he is forecastin 13/8/4 more! for a total of 16/8/4!

[flwxwatcher]

- ABSTRACT -
Information obtained through July 2007 continues to indicate that the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We have reduced our forecast slightly from our early April and late May predictions. We now estimate that 2007 will have about 8 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 15 named storms (average is 9.6), and 4 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 130 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2007 to be about 160 percent of the long-term average.

This early August forecast is based on a newly devised extended range statistical forecast procedure which was developed on 40 years of past global reanalysis data and is then tested on an additional 15 years of global reanalysis data. In addition, this new statistical forecast procedure has shown comparable skill during the first half of the 20th century. Overall, the scheme explains over 50 percent of the variance in Net Tropical Cyclone activity from 1900-2005.

We have lowered our forecast from our early April and late May predictions due to slightly less favorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic. Sea surface temperature anomalies have cooled across the tropical Atlantic in recent weeks, and there have been several significant dust outbreaks from Africa, signifying a generally stable air mass over the tropical Atlantic. ENSO conditions have trended slightly cooler over the past few weeks. We expect either cool neutral or weak La Niña conditions to be present during the upcoming hurricane season. Our final forecast is a combination of our statistical forecast, an analog forecast technique and qualitative adjustments based upon other atmospheric and oceanic patterns that are not implicitly considered in our quantitative approaches.

The above from the Abstract of the Colorado team August forecast.

Even if they lowered the numbers,still 13/8/4 is above average.But it's not about the numbers,but about where will the systems that form will go.And it takes only one to do the damage and change the lives of the people where a system strikes.

Luis i think he is forecastin 13/8/4 more! for a total of 16/8/4!

Thats correct.. the 13/8/4 numbers are for activity from August 1st on.. I think Luis titled the topic as such.

[windstorm99]

Very important to keep in mind folks NUMBERS ARE NOT IMPORTANT...

How many landfalls is were the focus should be placed at.Adrian

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think Grey's forecast comes out today. Some think it's tomorrow which is Saturday. never came out on a weekend. I'm sure his site will be open before noon.

[Chacor]

It is now officially out.

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Fore ... 7/aug2007/

15/8/4 are total numbers.

[Stormcenter]

It is now officially out.

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Fore ... 7/aug2007/

15/8/4 are total numbers.

No surprise here. We all knew the numbers should and would be lowered.
Hey it really doesn't matter because all it takes is "one" big storm.

[CourierPR]

He also gives a breakdown predicting 3 storms in August, 5 in September, and 5 in October/November. If his forecast verifies, we are in for an active time from now until season's end.

[MGC]

I predicted 13 named systems. I'm sticking with those numbers. We are already at 3 NS so I don't think it is out of the question to see 10 more.....MGC