Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like the GOM disturbance is done for. Keep an eye on Invest 99.

[Stormcenter]

Nothing there, folks. No rotation. Pressures continue to rise in the northern Gulf, averaging 1015-1018mb. Not good for development now. The window of opportunity is closing (probably already closed).

Yeah it looks that way but the NHC seems to want to leave the window open in their 10:30am TWO.

[jasons2k]

[MGC]

It may look unorganized at all, but I'm keeping an eye on it. Any time there is a trough in the mid GOM in August the potential is there. I hope it washes out though....MGC

[ronjon]

I was ready to write this off earlier this morning but the cluster of convection south of Mobile looks interesting this afternoon. It's at the tail end of the trough.

[jasons2k]

Look at the visibles. There are outflows going every-which-way. Even the trough axis is becoming diffuse.

[skysummit]

Latest Disco:


...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
AND NE GULF...ROUGHLY N OF 26N E OF 90W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING BROAD ELONGATED LOW PRES TROUGH.
AS OF 15 UTC...THE BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM A 1014 MB OVER SRN
GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS ALONG 31N83W 29N89W
29N94W. VISIBLE IMAGES...RADAR DATA AND SFC OBS SHOW BROAD
STRETCHED CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS WITH SOME
CONCENTRATION AND LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE MAIN LOW CENTER OVER
S GEORGIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...BETWEEN UPPER HIGHS OVER THE
SW U.S. AND ANOTHER OVER THE WRN ATLC...IS AIDING TO THE
INSTABILITY. NELY UPPER FLOW ABOVE THE WRN PART OF THE LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH IS HELPING TO STRETCH CIRRUS ACROSS THE WRN GULF. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT. VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS PUSHING OVER S FLORIDA
AND THE EXTREME SE GULF...SUPPRESSING ORGANIZED CONVECTION THERE.

[Stormcenter]

Latest Disco:


...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
AND NE GULF...ROUGHLY N OF 26N E OF 90W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING BROAD ELONGATED LOW PRES TROUGH.
AS OF 15 UTC...THE BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM A 1014 MB OVER SRN
GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS ALONG 31N83W 29N89W
29N94W. VISIBLE IMAGES...RADAR DATA AND SFC OBS SHOW BROAD
STRETCHED CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS WITH SOME
CONCENTRATION AND LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE MAIN LOW CENTER OVER
S GEORGIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...BETWEEN UPPER HIGHS OVER THE
SW U.S. AND ANOTHER OVER THE WRN ATLC...IS AIDING TO THE
INSTABILITY. NELY UPPER FLOW ABOVE THE WRN PART OF THE LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH IS HELPING TO STRETCH CIRRUS ACROSS THE WRN GULF. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT. VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS PUSHING OVER S FLORIDA
AND THE EXTREME SE GULF...SUPPRESSING ORGANIZED CONVECTION THERE.

That is a very interesting statement. Obviously the NHC still sees some "potential" in the area otherwise they would have not made such a remark. Anyway I would watch the areas south of Central LA. and AL. closely. IMO.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[HeeBGBz]

Anything to this spot sitting on the Yucatan?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

[RL3AO]

Anything to this spot sitting on the Yucatan?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

Is that the stealth wave that appeared again yesterday?

[JonathanBelles]

Anything to this spot sitting on the Yucatan?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

Is that the stealth wave that appeared again yesterday?

Couldn't it just be normal storms pushing off the coast?

[RL3AO]

Couldn't it just be normal storms pushing off the coast?

Probably.

But there was a small burst of convection yesterday from a wave that disappeared a few days ago so I was just thinking maybe.

[wxman57]

OK, I'll say it. "It's dead, Jim!"

[srainhoutx]

OK, I'll say it. "It's dead, Jim!"

just great