Invest 99L Thread #6

[weatherguru18]

Even if it remaims in it's diffuse state, Texas, already saturated, could be a real mess by late next week.

[MiamiensisWx]

99L has been discontinued on the NRL site.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Nimbus]

System is starting to slow down and converge again near 15N-16N.

Water vapor loop is showing the high over the Bahamas starting to push the front back northwest. The ULL is still rolling west in a manner that will ventilate.

The pro mets must be wondering if there will be any trough left in place over Texas as this energy gets into the gulf.

Should be lots of "Thar she blows!" posts later this evening.

[srainhoutx]

A clue near the Yucatan. Note the convection firing in the western Caribbean now. That's the "stealth wave" that was preceding 99L across the Caribbean. It had NO convection the entire track across the Caribbean but now it's slowing down near the Yucatan and convection is firing up. 99L has a lot more energy than that wave, so watch out when it slows down in the western Caribbean.

About on schedule as wxman57 posted last evening.

[mgpetre]

Was looking at old sat. images and saw quite a resemblence between this and Cindy in 2005... Do the meteorologists here think this thing has much chance of doing a GOM development?

Watching the loop of 2005 and checking out Yucatan storms of other years, this looks like a typical path for a Yucatan developing storm.

Poll: Who thinks we'll see some spin-up tonight?

[Stratosphere747]

Whatever is left of this system has that stereotypical mind of its own. Probably the best blow up of convection over the last few hours it has seen, including a few nights back.

Still no evidence of any LLC, but impressive flare-up of convection regardless.

[skysummit]

I'm not sure if this means much right now or not, but may help support my theory I posted earlier in this thread. Over the past 6 hours, surface convergence has been increasing a little in and around the Yucatan Channel. This may aid in convective development later this evening and tonight.

I would still like a pro met to give opinions on the map and theory I posted earlier today.

[storms in NC]

well It did what I said it would do ride up a long the west coast of the Islands. I Guess I wasn't wrong after all.

[punkyg]

I can't wait for tonight. who thinks this will fire up some more convection.

[HouTXmetro]

DEAD.. give up the ghost. just kidding, it doesn't look any better imo.

[wxman57]

I'm not sure if this means much right now or not, but may help support my theory I posted earlier in this thread. Over the past 6 hours, surface convergence has been increasing a little in and around the Yucatan Channel. This may aid in convective development later this evening and tonight.

I would still like a pro met to give opinions on the map and theory I posted earlier today.

I didn't see your earlier post with any map, but convergence is definitely increasing (as is convection) as of 4pm CDT. Quite a blow-up north of the area of lower pressure. It's behaving very much as I expected as it begins to slow down in the western Caribbean. Might need that invest back by tomorrow morning. Belize appears to have a bullseye on it, then across the southern or central BoC to Mexico. Ridge building over northern Gulf should prevent any turn to the north. Interaction with the Yucatan and limited time over water should prevent this from becoming anything more than a TS (if that).

[x-y-no]

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