99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

[wxmann_91]

continue discussion here

Thread 1: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96179

Thread 2: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96512

Thread 3: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96550

Thread 4: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96602

Thread 5: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96628&start=0

And thread 6: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96646&start=0

[SouthFloridawx]

As I said before this should move right into C. America/S. Yuck Pen.

[wxman57]

I'm not sure if this means much right now or not, but may help support my theory I posted earlier in this thread. Over the past 6 hours, surface convergence has been increasing a little in and around the Yucatan Channel. This may aid in convective development later this evening and tonight.

I would still like a pro met to give opinions on the map and theory I posted earlier today.

I didn't see your earlier post with any map, but convergence is definitely increasing (as is convection) as of 4pm CDT. Quite a blow-up north of the area of lower pressure. It's behaving very much as I expected as it begins to slow down in the western Caribbean. Might need that invest back by tomorrow morning. Belize appears to have a bullseye on it, then across the southern or central BoC to Mexico. Ridge building over northern Gulf should prevent any turn to the north. Interaction with the Yucatan and limited time over water should prevent this from becoming anything more than a TS (if that).

[vaffie]

I can't wait for tonight. who thinks this will fire up some more convection.

there's no doubt that it will keep refiring convection. The question is how much organized development will occur. I lean towards further development, but it won't necessarily happen. There has to be a lot of convergence for one, and there has to be a focus--it can't just happen over a very broad area like it is right now. If it does occur over a broad area however, it has to last for a long time. It is definitely a windy, stormy system with potential--will it become a threatening system remains an open question. The NW Caribbean will hold a lot of potential for it. Just the act of slowing down will result in mild convergence, an upper level high is forecast to form there in the next two days, and the waters are incredibly warm and untouched--so it will have all the ingredients it needs--convergence at the surface, divergence at the upper levels, and moist air throughout. We'll just have to see what comes out.

[whereverwx]

Here's a nice afternoon visible of the disturbance.

[NONAME]

Wow it does have some hope for development now.

[weatherguru18]

Check this out gang...Frank pointed out that the tropical heat potential in the western caribbean sea is warm and undisturbed. As this system approaches and slows, coupled with weak shear, this thing will have optimal conditions to pop. I'm not counting this dead yet. Right now it's sitting over "cool" water. You have the convergant asymptote and an anti-cyclonic spin, it just needs a minute to catch it's breath as it slows down.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 7214ca.jpg

[cheezyWXguy]

Here's a nice afternoon visible of the disturbance.

That picture is a bit old, if yall are seeing the same pic i am...maybe my computer isnt refreshing properly...

[SouthFloridawx]

[Lowpressure]

This thing just flew across the Carib.

[SouthFloridawx]

Doesn't have much time... maybe another 24 hours or so.

[RL3AO]

An early blowup. It didn't start until around midnight ET yesterday.

[whereverwx]

Here's a nice afternoon visible of the disturbance.

http://img383.imageshack.us/img383/5810/99lyc1.jpg

That picture is a bit old, if yall are seeing the same pic i am...maybe my computer isnt refreshing properly...

Oh... that is actually two hours old. I didn't notice that.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here's a nice afternoon visible of the disturbance.
http://img383.imageshack.us/img383/5810/99lyc1.jpg

That picture is a bit old, if yall are seeing the same pic i am...maybe my computer isnt refreshing properly...

Oh... that is actually two hours old. I didn't notice that.

Geez Calamity come on... Whats up with that?

[superfly]

It'll be under 20-30 kts shear until about 85W when it'll have a small window of opportunity to organize, but I'm not sure it will be near enough time with the type of speed it's moving at.

[HURAKAN]

I know it's not the same situation but Diana, 1990, seems to be a good example to what could happen to 99L. Diana, 1990, reached cat. 2 and we don't know if 99L could reach that intensity.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING RAPIDLY
WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO
JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE HINDERED BY PROXIMITY TO LAND.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...EXTEND FROM NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[astrosbaseball22]

i will watch it.

[srainhoutx]

[Sanibel]

That spiral we were tracking today bloomed a round convection burst - meaning this disturbance had kept a central vortex after being blown down by conditions.

It's near 15N-80W

This one is obvious and should crash into Belize. I think the only thing we are watching for is unexpected convection that then forms into a system after Yucatan. We'll see if the GOM trough yanks it unexpectedly.

See if it really fires tonight.