99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

[weatherguru18]

looks like it is moving southwest

I was going to say the same thing!

[Aric Dunn]

This is still an open wave at the surface, with some indications of ML turning, nothing new, other than convection firing up tonight.

agreed.. the only difference is the more northerly component to the winds as compared to say earlier when it pasted by Jamaica

[Ed Mahmoud]

looks like it is moving southwest

I was going to say the same thing!

I think that is thunderstorms trying to develop, against the shear, closer to the lowest pressure/best convergence.

[HURAKAN]

Looking nicer!!!

[astrosbaseball22]

looks like it is moving southwest

I was going to say the same thing!

I think that is thunderstorms trying to develop, against the shear, closer to the lowest pressure/best convergence.

so its not moving sw?

[Opal storm]

Yes it is looking nicer. If it keeps this up I can see it possibly becoming a TD/weak TS briefly before moving inland over the Yucatan. Then again, this system has not been very persistent over the past few days.

[wxman57]

Careful inferring surface circulation from IR imagery. Surface obs indicate no rotation yet.

[Ptarmigan]

I know im not either one of them but i can tell you that a Us threat is very minimal! mexico is just about as far north as it would go .

Wherever it goes, someone will get the rain. They can take all the rain they want.

[astrosbaseball22]

but is it movin SW!

[Normandy]

^I assure you this won't be inland early tom morning, its forward motion has slowed considerably since last night. Look at how much the convection has moved in the past two hours.

im not sure how you are judging the speed of this thing . but it is going to be moving overland by tomorrow... it would have to slow a lot more before it would have enough time for anything to happen .. although there is more turning and convection its still moving fast..

Well by early AM your inferring that this will be ashore in like 6 hours, which it wont.

[vaffie]

but is it movin SW!

I overlaid the last few images and watched them carefully, and it appears to be moving westnorthwest.

[Ed Mahmoud]

[quote="weatherguru18

I was going to say the same thing!

I think that is thunderstorms trying to develop, against the shear, closer to the lowest pressure/best convergence.

so its not moving sw?[/quote]

I don't think so, but I'm not a trained professional.


An almost calm wind near/just SW of the center per that surface obs map with 30 knots plus to the North, it is semi-close to closing it off, IMHO.

[vaffie]

cloud tops in the ball of fire are still continuing to get colder. It is essentially evolving into a CDO. In four hours the diurnal max will arrive, and this thing could literally explode overnight. Will be very interesting to watch. Part of it may go over Honduras, but the center will probably miss it and with such favorable conditions that land interaction will more than be compensated for.

[Normandy]

Well I wouldn't go so far as to say its evolving into a CDO.....lets let it persists for at least a few more hours. But, it does look like that convective blowup has good mid level turning.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Haven't checked CIMSS shear map lately, but its obvious the shear from the SW is strong, so even if it develops, it'll be lopsided at first, and not terribly strong, and just when the shear lets up, it'll be inland.

Be the F storm in the Pacific, is my uneducated guess.

[Ptarmigan]

Haven't checked CIMSS shear map lately, but its obvious the shear from the SW is strong, so even if it develops, it'll be lopsided at first, and not terribly strong, and just when the shear lets up, it'll be inland.

Be the F storm in the Pacific, is my uneducated guess.

Sometimes that happens. Many EPAC storms come from tropical waves in the Atlantic.

[HURAKAN]

Very interesting TWO to come.

By the way, the disturbances in the EPAC right now are struggling with shear. Flossie may not come soon as 90E is moving towards cooler waters and the other disturbance south of Mexico is struggling to survive.

[vaffie]

Most remarkable though is that in the very center of the blob for the last one and a half hours has been a small circle of warmer cloud tops--that one sees in strong tropical storms and which eventually evolves into the eye of a hurricane. Look closely at 15.14N, 80.02W. I will be watching that dot carefully over the next few hours to see if it persists.

Since I'm not sure how to upload an image, click on this link to see what I'm talking about.
https://bigfile.bcm.tmc.edu/outbound/vbayat/center.jpg

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING
RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT DEVELOPMENT MAY BE HINDERED DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO LAND.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Aric Dunn]

Careful inferring surface circulation from IR imagery. Surface obs indicate no rotation yet.

hey on that image is that the buoy thats not working there east of Honduras? because if it is then the data in your garp may be old? on that buoy