99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

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punkyg
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#81 Postby punkyg » Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:13 pm

vaffie wrote:Most remarkable though is that in the very center of the blob for the last one and a half hours has been a small circle of warmer cloud tops--that one sees in strong tropical storms and which eventually evolves into the eye of a hurricane. Look closely at 15.14N, 80.02W. I will be watching that dot carefully over the next few hours to see if it persists.

Since I'm not sure how to upload an image, click on this link to see what I'm talking about.
https://bigfile.bcm.tmc.edu/outbound/vbayat/center.jpg
Interesting, when did you first spot this?
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#82 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:14 pm

Sanity check, folks! Yes, there are some bursts of convection, but there are no signs of any rotation on surface obs in the area, and pressures aren't falling (and it's not forming an eye!). Still just a strong tropical wave. It could be slowing a little, hard to tell as there's no good reference point to use. As the NHC is saying, time is its enemy. If it doesn't slow down a lot then it has less than 24 hours over the water. I'd estimate that development chances are in the 20% range. Relatively low. I've adjusted that estimate downward due to its still too-quick motion and limited time.
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#83 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:16 pm

So wxman57 is that the broken buoy?
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#84 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:18 pm

The only hope for this now is that because the shear is displacing the storms to the North, the area of lowest surface pressure will follow. Because otherwise, I'd guess the center, if one forms at all, is near/South of 15º, and is inland tomorrow morning.
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#85 Postby 'CaneFreak » Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:20 pm

wxman57 wrote:Sanity check, folks! Yes, there are some bursts of convection, but there are no signs of any rotation on surface obs in the area, and pressures aren't falling (and it's not forming an eye!). Still just a strong tropical wave. It could be slowing a little, hard to tell as there's no good reference point to use. As the NHC is saying, time is its enemy. If it doesn't slow down a lot then it has less than 24 hours over the water. I'd estimate that development chances are in the 20% range. Relatively low. I've adjusted that estimate downward due to its still too-quick motion and limited time.


I strongly agree with this statement and would also like to add that the low level steering flow is still rather strong running from ESE to WNW at about 15 to 25 knots. Therefore, this area of convection will likely be inland over Honduras and/or Nicaragua by this time tomorrow night unless something extremely out of the ordinary happens overnight.
Last edited by 'CaneFreak on Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#86 Postby vaffie » Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:21 pm

I noticed it at 0015Z--about 2 hours ago, but I thought it was nothing. But then when it was still there, I paid attention. As of the last image at 0210Z, it has clearly reappeared after briefly disappearing again. Wouldn't that be weird? If at 11 am tomorrow, they label it a hurricane, just skipping over TD and TS!

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
Last edited by vaffie on Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#87 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:21 pm

wxman57 wrote:Sanity check, folks! Yes, there are some bursts of convection, but there are no signs of any rotation on surface obs in the area, and pressures aren't falling (and it's not forming an eye!). Still just a strong tropical wave. It could be slowing a little, hard to tell as there's no good reference point to use. As the NHC is saying, time is its enemy. If it doesn't slow down a lot then it has less than 24 hours over the water. I'd estimate that development chances are in the 20% range. Relatively low. I've adjusted that estimate downward due to its still too-quick motion and limited time.


and yeah agree with you, except although there is no evidence with surface obs there is some clear turning mid levels or so.. outflow boundaries shooting west than bending SW and then S while further east there is clear SE flow shown by your surface obs and by the cloud lines on sat. last visible images showed something was there very weak and not likely at the surface. and it is still a open wave but if you want to compare to what it looked like earlier which is what everyone is doing then compared to earlier there is more turning
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#88 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:22 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Sanity check, folks! Yes, there are some bursts of convection, but there are no signs of any rotation on surface obs in the area, and pressures aren't falling (and it's not forming an eye!). Still just a strong tropical wave. It could be slowing a little, hard to tell as there's no good reference point to use. As the NHC is saying, time is its enemy. If it doesn't slow down a lot then it has less than 24 hours over the water. I'd estimate that development chances are in the 20% range. Relatively low. I've adjusted that estimate downward due to its still too-quick motion and limited time.


I strongly agree with this statement and would also like to add that the low level steering flow is still rather strong running from ESE to WNW at about 15 to 25 knots. Therefore, this area of convection will likely be inland over Honduras and/or Nicaragua by this time tomorrow night unless something extremely out of the ordinary happens overnight.


Yup. I don't know if the term "center jump" applies to something that may not have an LLCC yet, but a center jump/formation uinder the deepest convection is the only hope for a reprieve from land, and even that only buys another day, unless it really slows down.
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#89 Postby punkyg » Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:25 pm

vaffie wrote:I noticed it at 0015Z--about 2 hours ago, but I thought it was nothing. But then when it was still there, I paid attention. As of the last image at 0210Z, it has clearly reappeared after briefly disappearing again. Wouldn't that be weird? If at 11 am tomorrow, they label it a hurricane, just skipping over TD and TS!

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
Vaffie they won't do that.
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#90 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:26 pm

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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#91 Postby vaffie » Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:27 pm

punkyg wrote:Vaffie they won't do that.


Yeah, I know, I'm just joking. Would be a first though!
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#92 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:28 pm

wxman57 wrote:Sanity check, folks! Yes, there are some bursts of convection, but there are no signs of any rotation on surface obs in the area, and pressures aren't falling (and it's not forming an eye!). Still just a strong tropical wave. It could be slowing a little, hard to tell as there's no good reference point to use. As the NHC is saying, time is its enemy. If it doesn't slow down a lot then it has less than 24 hours over the water. I'd estimate that development chances are in the 20% range. Relatively low. I've adjusted that estimate downward due to its still too-quick motion and limited time.


Relax, I don't think anyone here is saying there is a surface circulation, just that there is some spin (at the mid levels probably). Admitting its getting better organized is not being insane at this point...agree on the point that its still just a tropical wave and its definitely not forming an eye lol.
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#93 Postby jasons2k » Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:33 pm

Just had a chance to read the last few pages and catch-up.

I don't see how it has any room to do anything significant.

Also, an open wave cannot and will not have a CDO. Let's be careful about tossing out terms like that please - it could confuse some people into thinking this is something that it's not.
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#94 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:37 pm

I do agree pressure are still pretty high well at least thats what
some ships near by are reporting

Image
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#95 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:38 pm

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

In these water vapor images the system looks really impressive in a close up. I also note what Vaffie said but I don't think its an eye or anything developing. Also you can see new convection popping.
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#96 Postby miamicanes177 » Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:43 pm

NHC appears to still be concerned about 99L as can be seen in tonights TWO. Upper level winds are favorable for development, but the NHC is hoping perhaps its proximity to land will hinder too much intensification. This will be fun to watch.
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#97 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:48 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:NHC appears to still be concerned about 99L as can be seen in tonights TWO. Upper level winds are favorable for development, but the NHC is hoping perhaps its proximity to land will hinder too much intensification. This will be fun to watch.


Um, a little less hostile judging from the WV loop, but I wouldn't say favorable.

Between 20 and 30 knots of Southerly shear isn't favorable.

Image
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#98 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:55 pm

I just saw Jim Cantore in the tropical update say that if Nicaragua and Honduras were not there,this would be a depression shortly.
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#99 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 03, 2007 9:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:I just saw Jim Cantore in the tropical update say that if Nicaragua and Honduras were not there,this would be a depression shortly.


that sounds about right ...



http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#100 Postby artist » Fri Aug 03, 2007 10:00 pm

here is the latest wind scat of the surrounding area and I think it is fairly recent.

Image



I just don't see it.
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