99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

[Aric Dunn]

Ivan dodged a little.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

debbie is the best example i call it the tether ball effect



but yeah debbie got stuck on the mountains just sort of wrapped around like a tether ball

debbie was moving Wnw then all of a sudden w then wsw



so i guess anything is possible with 99l lol

But it is a REAL thing, I just wanted to make sure it wasn't something like an optical illusion or mind trick.

its not proven yet there are some studies .... i believe it is and it does have a effect in vertain cases

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debby_(2000)

[tolakram]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

Just missed ... again.

[JonathanBelles]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/latest_at_1.html

Just missed ... again.

Is there a pass schedule anywhere?

[RL3AO]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/latest_at_1.html

Just missed ... again.

It caught enough to show that there is no lower level turning what so ever.

[srainhoutx]

intersting wave. We have been watching this for some time now...

Post subject: Invest 99L in Central AtlanticPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2007 12:50 pm


Tropical Depression


Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2005 5:20 pm
Posts: 67 The GFS in this morning's runs have been showing an area of low pressure moving off at a low attitude. The system looks quit vigorous and SAL conditions in the Atlantic appear to becoming less hostile,not withstanding warm sst's and expected reduction in shear.


ceterainly has overcome a lot of resistance in my opion.

[Sanibel]

Persistent refire but crash and burn over Honduras. Should see some action this year if this is an example.

[Aric Dunn]

[Aric Dunn]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[srainhoutx]

lets see if the ball of convection can stick near 15 and 80 for a while.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

[Aric Dunn]

lets see if the ball of convection can stick near 15 and 80 for a while.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

that a very old image

[mgpetre]

lets see if the ball of convection can stick near 15 and 80 for a while.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

that a very old image

I'm getting the most recent when I click on the link. 3:45Z

[Aric Dunn]

lets see if the ball of convection can stick near 15 and 80 for a while.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

that a very old image

I'm getting the most recent when I click on the link. 3:45Z

i was my cache.. oops

[skysummit]

Not related to 99L, but the 00z GFS is showing another low rider like 99L entering the Eastern Caribbean in 156 hours.

[astrosbaseball22]

who cares its hitting mexico!

[vaffie]

I realize that most of you have written it off and that's fine by me, but if you're interested, I did satellite overlays for the last two hours to work out what I thought it's short term motion was, and concluded that it had moved 27 miles (16 miles per hour) at a direction of 326 degrees, or about 10 degrees north of northwest. You can do the same thing if you like and tell me if you think it's still going due west--doesn't bother me, but by my calculations, it's gonna miss central America by a long shot and head towards the Yucatan channel. call it -removed-, whatever. i've attached the pictures I used. The center positions I used were 15.38N, 80.16W and 15.03N, 79.93W and were based on where I estimated they were from a symmetrical satellite pattern.

https://bigfile.bcm.tmc.edu/outbound/vb ... 4-0215.jpg
https://bigfile.bcm.tmc.edu/outbound/vb ... 4-0401.jpg

[mgpetre]

OK, looks like folks are dropping like flies just as this thing is gaining some strength. Anyone here beside myself give this thing a chance of at the least making the BOC? And if you don't could you provide me with an image of the latest steering currents, I have all those bookmarks saved on my work PC.

[Aric Dunn]

who cares its hitting mexico!

thats was not necessary .... obviously we do and you dont

[srainhoutx]

Not related to 99L, but the 00z GFS is showing another low rider like 99L entering the Eastern Caribbean in 156 hours.

Wonderful. Tis the season.

[RL3AO]

who cares its hitting mexico!

Which way was that meant?

1) Who cares its hitting Mexico not the U.S
or
2) Who cares its hitting Mexico soon and won't have time to develop

[LSU2001]

who cares its hitting mexico!

Totally uncalled for!!! Mexico has people, towns and cities there too. Contrary to popular belief there is civilization outside of the CONUS


Tim