99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

[Aric Dunn]

I realize that most of you have written it off and that's fine by me, but if you're interested, I did satellite overlays for the last two hours to work out what I thought it's short term motion was, and concluded that it had moved 27 miles (16 miles per hour) at a direction of 326 degrees, or about 10 degrees north of northwest. You can do the same thing if you like and tell me if you think it's still going due west--doesn't bother me, but by my calculations, it's gonna miss central America by a long shot and head towards the Yucatan channel. call it -removed-, whatever. i've attached the pictures I used. The center positions I used were 15.38N, 80.16W and 15.03N, 79.93W and were based on where I estimated they were from a symmetrical satellite pattern.

https://bigfile.bcm.tmc.edu/outbound/vb ... 4-0215.jpg
https://bigfile.bcm.tmc.edu/outbound/vb ... 4-0401.jpg

only problem thats not center ! there may not be anything at the surface .. so the convection and the clouds tops are moving with the direction on the upper winds ..

but good graphic

[TexWx]

Seems to maybe have a NW jump to it...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rb.html

i think this thing my finally fire up....

[mgpetre]

I realize that most of you have written it off and that's fine by me, but if you're interested, I did satellite overlays for the last two hours to work out what I thought it's short term motion was, and concluded that it had moved 27 miles (16 miles per hour) at a direction of 326 degrees, or about 10 degrees north of northwest. You can do the same thing if you like and tell me if you think it's still going due west--doesn't bother me, but by my calculations, it's gonna miss central America by a long shot and head towards the Yucatan channel. call it -removed-, whatever. i've attached the pictures I used. The center positions I used were 15.38N, 80.16W and 15.03N, 79.93W and were based on where I estimated they were from a symmetrical satellite pattern.

https://bigfile.bcm.tmc.edu/outbound/vb ... 4-0215.jpg
https://bigfile.bcm.tmc.edu/outbound/vb ... 4-0401.jpg

OK, I think you might have something (I personally don't think it's going to head due West or anything South of that, but I do think your estimated center is a little off. I think the Big Blog is circulating around a MLC that is right about at the edge of it. Really hard to estimate direction, but I do agree that this thing has a chance of missing Honduras.

[Aric Dunn]

OK, looks like folks are dropping like flies just as this thing is gaining some strength. Anyone here beside myself give this thing a chance of at the least making the BOC? And if you don't could you provide me with an image of the latest steering currents, I have all those bookmarks saved on my work PC.

Mid level



upper level



Midlevel again from cimss



possible but not likely to have much of any of it make it to the BOC ..

[Sanibel]

Your steering chart shows a path straight across Central America and into EPAC.

[mgpetre]

Thank you for all of the insight. I do now have to admit that a crash into Central America appears to be imminent, but I will stay up to see... long night...

[astrosbaseball22]

i didnt mean it like that did you see the models!??!

[Aric Dunn]

Your steering chart shows a path straight across Central America and into EPAC.

yeah all of them but its right on the edge .. i would imagine if if were to close off a low and become a little more vertically stacked that we would see a more wnw motion but as long as it is shallow is going to do nothing but west to maybe WNW either way over land .. but if enough convection just shifts north a little i guess anything can happen .. but certain things are unlikely

[RL3AO]

I wonder how much of it will be left for its drive for Flossie.

PS: Have you ever heard of anyone named Flossie? Maybe a dentists daughter or something?

[TexWx]

if there were a center, would you see it at about 15 & 81.5?

[flashflood]

At least the remnants have a sort of cyclonic twist developing in the latest convection bursts. Kind of like a mid level MSC. That shows there is still enough energy left over to produce some decent convection even if it is mostly diurnal.

Other posters in the previous thread were somewhat confident that something can still develop in the western carib. After all, it's more of a climatology favored area anyway. I'd say it can have a chance for something to develop in the next day or two.

[Aric Dunn]

At least the remnants have a sort of cyclonic twist developing in the latest convection bursts. Kind of like a mid level MSC. That shows there is still enough energy left over to produce some decent convection even if it is mostly diurnal.

Other posters in the previous thread were somewhat confident that something can still develop in the western carib. After all, it's more of a climatology favored area anyway. I'd say it can have a chance for something to develop in the next day or two.

day or two .. it will be over land in 12 to 15 hours !

[Stratosphere747]

Here is another link for an idea of the steering currents. As noted if anything were to develop it should be inland over Central America soon. It's not moving as fast though.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... ecent.html

[vaffie]

thanks for your appreciation, guys. It's nice not being mocked. You're right, it's not the 'center', so I'll just call it the blob. The blob, as of the 0430Z satellite picture continues to move at the same exact angle and speed of about 17 mph and 325-330 degrees. If the present rate were to continue, the center of the blob would cross the 16th degree of latitude at approximately 0700Z or in just over two hours. The 16th degree of latitude marks the northern coast of Honduras. In other words at that point, the majority of the blob will already be north of the Honduras coast.

[flashflood]

At least the remnants have a sort of cyclonic twist developing in the latest convection bursts. Kind of like a mid level MSC. That shows there is still enough energy left over to produce some decent convection even if it is mostly diurnal.

Other posters in the previous thread were somewhat confident that something can still develop in the western carib. After all, it's more of a climatology favored area anyway. I'd say it can have a chance for something to develop in the next day or two.

day or two .. it will be over land in 12 to 15 hours !

That is the most likely scenario however it still could edge just north of Hounduras, or the convection can develop slightly off shore as it relocates the main energy a bit north.

[mgpetre]

thanks for your appreciation, guys. It's nice not being mocked. You're right, it's not the 'center', so I'll just call it the blob. The blob, as of the 0430Z satellite picture continues to move at the same exact angle and speed of about 17 mph and 325-330 degrees. If the present rate were to continue, the center of the blob would cross the 16th degree of latitude at approximately 0700Z or in just over two hours. The 16th degree of latitude marks the northern coast of Honduras. In other words at that point, the majority of the blob will already be north of the Honduras coast.

I think vaffie may be onto something as far as MLC goes. This thing seems to be wobbling Northwestwardly. BTW Vaffie, I predicted this thing would cross the Yucatan into the BOC/GOM and become a Cat3 so I'm already eating crow. However, I believe the strenth of this wave is redeeming my predictions a little bit.

[Aric Dunn]

At least the remnants have a sort of cyclonic twist developing in the latest convection bursts. Kind of like a mid level MSC. That shows there is still enough energy left over to produce some decent convection even if it is mostly diurnal.

Other posters in the previous thread were somewhat confident that something can still develop in the western carib. After all, it's more of a climatology favored area anyway. I'd say it can have a chance for something to develop in the next day or two.

day or two .. it will be over land in 12 to 15 hours !

That is the most likely scenario however it still could edge just north of Hounduras, or the convection can develop slightly off shore as it relocates the main energy a bit north.

agreed i think i mentioned that a few post ago. the convection is already being enhanced north of Honduras but the main part of the wave axis is south i due not rule out that possibility but yeah not likely

[Aric Dunn]

shear is slowly beginning to subside

300 z shear

[vaffie]

I predicted this thing would cross the Yucatan into the BOC/GOM and become a Cat3 so I'm already eating crow. However, I believe the strength of this wave is redeeming my predictions a little bit.

Never say never, mgpetre, how many times have we seen the best forecasters and the best computer models out there be completely surprised by what nature decided to do. Always be prepared to be surprised. In one hour the diurnal maximum will begin and this thing could really start to take off. Pressures may already be dropping like crazy. Surface winds on the periphery are already approaching 40 knots based on satellite imagery on the NRL site from five hours ago--they could be higher by now. So, don't kick yourself until this thing is really dead.

[mgpetre]

Appreciate the consolation at the least Vaffie. I kinda hope I was wrong though, I don't want to see anything hit TX right now after all the rain we've had for the last two months.

I think most of my -removed- is more like a form of reverse psychology -removed-... if that makes sense.