99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

[Aric Dunn]

someone tell me if this page loads for you .. http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

then click on 99l

if it does the quick scatt is upp the new one but it wont load

if it loads click on the NCEP

[tigergirl]

After I click on ncep....its still loading..

[Aric Dunn]

After I click on ncep....its still loading..

darn it wont load i let it do that for like 20 minutes
crap that would answer our questions .. oh well something is wrong

[srainhoutx]

I predicted this thing would cross the Yucatan into the BOC/GOM and become a Cat3 so I'm already eating crow. However, I believe the strength of this wave is redeeming my predictions a little bit.

Never say never, mgpetre, how many times have we seen the best forecasters and the best computer models out there be completely surprised by what nature decided to do. Always be prepared to be surprised. In one hour the diurnal maximum will begin and this thing could really start to take off. Pressures may already be dropping like crazy. Surface winds on the periphery are already approaching 40 knots based on satellite imagery on the NRL site from five hours ago--they could be higher by now. So, don't kick yourself until this thing is really dead.

NRL reestablishing site link on 99L is a very good point concerning future thought of 99L within Governmantal Agencies ie DOD, NCH, NASA in my humble opinion. Time will tell.

[la wave]

Check out the LSU ESL graphics. It seems that the "blob" is indeed moving toward the NW. It also appears that banding features are evident around the "blob". Go figure.

[TexWx]

that's what I said in my post earlier that nobody saw...

the NW movement could just be an illusion though
Man, this is like cookin' a brisket

[mgpetre]

I like how we are in a thread titled Data, Analyses, Intrerpretations, Conclusions and the storm is stronger than it's ever been. I know it may not have far to go, but just because it isn't hitting mainland US shouldn't meen we write it off before it's over.

[Stormcenter]

Never say never when it comes to the tropics.

[punkyg]

Oh man i just looked at 99L and man i have to say thats a full blown depression oh man i freakin out! i know it was never declared, but i have to say its beautiful oh man i feel embarassed

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[mgpetre]

OK, so now I appear to be in a time warp... I go to http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html and I get images that are 3 to 4 hours old even though the latest had already been loaded into my java applet. Is someone conspiring to undo this development?

This includes the still images. I'm sure it's just a computer glitch... they aren't hiding anything, they can't be... ok, so it's getting pretty late here and my wife wants me in bed, but I have to know where this thing makes landfall. You follow something for 5 days and you just gotta know.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Let me just say that there maybe some tighting of the wave. But no LLC has yet developed with out westly winds. We will see if it go's north of that landmass...It may have some more time. COME ON DEAN.

[Aric Dunn]

Oh man i just looked at 99L and man i have to say thats a full blown depression oh man i freakin out! i know it was never declared, but i have to say its beautiful oh man i feel embarassed

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

still no real evidence of a surface circulation

[vaffie]

It's funny, isn't it? It's so organized and beautiful and circular all of a sudden, and there are no global models initiated properly, no reconnaissance plane in the last 35 hours, not even a tropical storm watch for central America, even the floater satellite is floating elsewhere, and we're the only people left looking at it. ha ha. don't cry wolf is the conclusion--it cried twice and everyone's gone to sleep when there really is a wolf.

[mgpetre]

Oh man i just looked at 99L and man i have to say thats a full blown depression oh man i freakin out! i know it was never declared, but i have to say its beautiful oh man i feel embarassed

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

still no real evidence of a surface circulation

With this late development what evidence of surface circulation can we really expect without the quickpass and without actual observations other than an eyewall? I mean the possible area of LLC is completely covered by massive convection at this point.

[Aric Dunn]

dont get me wrong i just as impressed with the overall appearance .. but seriously we have nothing to go off of except satellite .. and its night .. we have no evidence of any surface closed low and the NW motion of the convection is nothing new.. it does have a good mid level turn to it and deep convection but again unless there is a closed surface low its not even a TD

[punkyg]

Its a good thing to have convection over the llc, but of course we don't know yet. i'm martha stewart its a good thing

[Aric Dunn]

Oh man i just looked at 99L and man i have to say thats a full blown depression oh man i freakin out! i know it was never declared, but i have to say its beautiful oh man i feel embarassed

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

still no real evidence of a surface circulation

With this late development what evidence of surface circulation can we really expect without the quickpass and without actual observations other than an eyewall? I mean the possible area of LLC is completely covered by massive convection at this point.

exactly my point i know earlier ther was no surface circ. before the sun went down and the likely hood of one forming that fast is very unlikely .. ( but not impossible ) so it may look like a depression but its not until a surface low is present

[whereverwx]

Each frame is getting a little bit more interesting. While others may have lost complete curiosity in it, I have since gained further interest.

[mgpetre]

The red in the big blob got smaller in the last image... I'm going to bed.

I hope the people of Honduras needed a little rain.

OK, I am partly jesting. I do stil think this heeds watching. I do believe there is some surface circulation in there at this point probably, but it will not matter if this thing hits Cent. Am. If it skirts north then I'm in for a long night...

[Aric Dunn]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html


looks like another burst of convection starting further north on the NW side of that blob