Vigorous Wave to Emerge Africa

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Dry air to the north but looks
pretty moist along the ITCZ.
This looks like a very powerful
disturbance...I would say a possible
system as it moves out over the atlantic,
simply because it is so large with ample
moisture and already has a
very vigorous circulation of some sort.

[canegrl04]

I wouldn't be sad that nothing is developing. Enjoy this time and thank your lucky stars that conditions are so hostile for development.

Trsu me as one who has been through a few of these... you would not wish ANY hurricane on your worst enemy... especially a major hurricane (Katrina and Wilma were more than enlightening in that respect)

I know what you mean. On May 2,we had a storm complex that brought hurricane force winds to North Texas. I was huddled in shelter when it passed over us.It was frightening even though the winds were gusting to 70 mph

[Sanibel]

Has anybody made a topic about the 8-9N - 39W wave that appears to have a spin to it?

[Derek Ortt]

the MJO effects in the Atlantic are highly questionable... at best (more like inconsequential, IMO, as w get just as many storms foring during the negative phase as positive... and the last positive phase did nothing)

[Hyperstorm]

I wouldn't count on that HUGE tropical wave/low developing. If you notice, the low pressure area is located north of 15N. With the temperatures in the eastern Atlantic so far this year running near or slightly below normal, it will have to wait until the central and western Atlantic if conditions aloft are favorable. Remember, the previous huge wave that moved off? It encountered the same situation and has not developed. Also notice that there seems to be NE shear across Africa that has the low pressure center exposed to the NE of the blossoming convection. That's indicative of a huge surge of SAL that will likely move offshore when the wave hits the waters. If this was late August or September, developmental chances north of 15N would be greater.

I'm still watching the small tropical wave that moved offshore yesterday. There was a mid-level spin associated with it, but it hasn't developed due to the NE outflow from the huge tropical low that is still inland over Africa. This one is still there and will continue to be monitored as it moves westward.

We can say that the ITCZ is active at this time, possibly setting up the area for a hectic late season...

[punkyg]

[cheezyWXguy]

I wouldn't be sad that nothing is developing. Enjoy this time and thank your lucky stars that conditions are so hostile for development.

Trsu me as one who has been through a few of these... you would not wish ANY hurricane on your worst enemy... especially a major hurricane (Katrina and Wilma were more than enlightening in that respect)

I know what you mean. On May 2,we had a storm complex that brought hurricane force winds to North Texas. I was huddled in shelter when it passed over us.It was frightening even though the winds were gusting to 70 mph

If you were in the DFW area, then i know what youre talking about. where i live, which is plano,we had i think it was 72mph sustained with a gust to 84mph...just incredible

[weatherman21]

I am currently utilizing the Integreated Data Viewer which is created by Unidata, to observe the latest Model and Satellite data. The IDV produces great resolution. In regards to the ITCZ which is currently active across the SE Atlantic, after observing the GFS run from 0z (8pm EDT) last night, I noticed the GFS indicating a possible area of low pressure tracking across the southern Atlantic. I have the screen captures below:

This first image is the forecast for 0z on 8/09


Second image is for 0z on 8/11


Third image is for 0z on 8/15

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wow...a closed system as it traverses the central atlantic.

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow, but dont forget that was last nights model run.

[flwxwatcher]

For entertainment purposes only:):)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

[jaxfladude]

I wouldn't count on that HUGE tropical wave/low developing. If you notice, the low pressure area is located north of 15N. With the temperatures in the eastern Atlantic so far this year running near or slightly below normal, it will have to wait until the central and western Atlantic if conditions aloft are favorable. Remember, the previous huge wave that moved off? It encountered the same situation and has not developed. Also notice that there seems to be NE shear across Africa that has the low pressure center exposed to the NE of the blossoming convection. That's indicative of a huge surge of SAL that will likely move offshore when the wave hits the waters. If this was late August or September, developmental chances north of 15N would be greater.

I'm still watching the small tropical wave that moved offshore yesterday. There was a mid-level spin associated with it, but it hasn't developed due to the NE outflow from the huge tropical low that is still inland over Africa. This one is still there and will continue to be monitored as it moves westward.

We can say that the ITCZ is active at this time, possibly setting up the area for a hectic late season...

But time is running out....

[El Nino]

Maybe Carolina en route for something big ...

[flwxwatcher]

I wouldn't count on that HUGE tropical wave/low developing. If you notice, the low pressure area is located north of 15N. With the temperatures in the eastern Atlantic so far this year running near or slightly below normal, it will have to wait until the central and western Atlantic if conditions aloft are favorable. Remember, the previous huge wave that moved off? It encountered the same situation and has not developed. Also notice that there seems to be NE shear across Africa that has the low pressure center exposed to the NE of the blossoming convection. That's indicative of a huge surge of SAL that will likely move offshore when the wave hits the waters. If this was late August or September, developmental chances north of 15N would be greater.

I'm still watching the small tropical wave that moved offshore yesterday. There was a mid-level spin associated with it, but it hasn't developed due to the NE outflow from the huge tropical low that is still inland over Africa. This one is still there and will continue to be monitored as it moves westward.

We can say that the ITCZ is active at this time, possibly setting up the area for a hectic late season...

But time is running out....

The Meat of the season really begins about August 15th. Lets see what things look like in a couple of week, Still plenty of time:):)

[jaxfladude]

Just a question: What was the earliest end to a hurricane on record for the Atlantic Basin?

[Fego]

JUM! there it is

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tomorrow this will emerge. This could get very
interesting...

[WindRunner]

I heard Pasch commenting today on how impressive this wave looked, and even mentioned that a couple models recurve it into the Sahara . . . though I doubt that has much creedence.

[Fego]

Here the wave loop,,, sorry if it is too big. In any case I will change it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Clearly pulsing and will be further north than previous waves...
analogous to beryl last year....