Hey guys is this a low pressure forming? it looks like it.

[punkyg]

Hi guys i was looking at some things when i saw this.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg
do you think its something to watch, but of course this could be a upper level low
and i just don't know. now if your blind or can't tell what i'm talking about i'll tell you where its at.
its the wave north of the antillies.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsat.html
Appears to have some sort of spin and some focused convection.

[punkyg]

Do you think anything will happen with the system?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Has some potential to become a tropical
depression if convection persists and that
spin works its way down to the surface.

Here's a view on IR but this image is slighly old:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

The satellite image shows better organization:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsat.html

[HURAKAN]

In 24 hrs it's being identified as a trough of low pressure, but it should be watched.

[alan1961]

there seems to be some interaction with that old frontal boundary off to its north west and the ridging to its east giving upper level rotation, below it some convection looks likely to fire from the ITCZ...might be something to keep an eye on.

[Derek Ortt]

its nothing... outflow boundaries

[artist]

Derek - can you explain why it's not?

[Derek Ortt]

as I said, there are outflow boundaries. Not getting a TC developing when air is flowing away from the convection

[Ed Mahmoud]

The ULL at 20ºN and 60ºW seems to be cutting off form the trough, so it won't be getting fresh injections of cool air with short waves riding down. And it is sparking a fair amount of convection. Give it enough time, in my uneducated opinion, it will have a chance, if the parent trough moves a little North so shear drops, to warm the upper levels and eventually become warm core.


I understand that is rare, and slow, but the nice wave in Africa is still a couple of days from the coast, and as good as it looks now, all the good looking waves have gotten sick looking when going feet-wet.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The ULL at 20ºN and 60ºW seems to be cutting off form the trough, so it won't be getting fresh injections of cool air with short waves riding down. And it is sparking a fair amount of convection. Give it enough time, in my uneducated opinion, it will have a chance, if the parent trough moves a little North so shear drops, to warm the upper levels and eventually become warm core.


I understand that is rare, and slow, but the nice wave in Africa is still a couple of days from the coast, and as good as it looks now, all the good looking waves have gotten sick looking when going feet-wet.

Ie, only game in town, even if it is somewhat Bush League (a baseball, not a political reference) for at least 3 days, probably much longer than that.

[canegrl04]

Bears watching alert .Lets see if it can spin into a TD before the end of the week

[alan1961]

if these loops behave thereselfs we might be able too

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

as I said, there are outflow boundaries. Not getting a TC developing when air is flowing away from the convection

Thank you derek for the explanation.
Sometimes satellite images can play tricks on my eyes.

[Blown Away]

Per Accuweather:
Another tropical wave is at about 60 west south of 22 north, moving into the Lesser Antilles, tracking westward at about 15 mph. There is not a lot of shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this wave, but it will generate some downpours over Puerto Rico Sunday. There is significant shear lying ahead of this wave so it is extremely unlikely to become more organized.

They think it is a wave.

[Sanibel]

You should be looking at a weak spin at 40W - 9N

See if it's there tomorrow when it is better seen on visible loop.

[Recurve]

000
FXUS62 KKEY 051853
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS(700-200MB)...AS OF 200
PM...LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
DEPICT A SPRAWLING WARM CORE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE OZARK
MOUNTAINS. CLOSER TO THE KEYS...A MID AND UPPER RIDGE IS POSITIONED
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 20N 60W WEST SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWEST TO ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA.

IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS AS OF 200 PM...DEPICT A NEAR 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
MAIN AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THERE IS A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH ANALYZED FROM NEAR BUOY
41002 SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. AS A RESULT...THE KEYS REMAIN
BENEATH AN UNSEASONABLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...WITH VERY LOW RH
ABOVE 900 MB.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...ANOTHER STIFLING EARLY AUGUST AFTERNOON
IS UNDERWAY IN THE CONCH REPUBLIC. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
KEYS ISLAND CHAIN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
REACHED 93 AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND DEGREES AT 89 DEGREES
MARATHON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LONG YET LIMP CLOUDLINE EXTENDING FROM SUGARLOAF KEY
WESTWARD TO 29 NM SOUTH OF PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT. KEY WEST RADAR IS
NOT DETECTING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS HOUR. WINDS ALONG
THE BAY AND REEF ARE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS....AND
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE ISLANDS.

.FORECASTS...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE KEYS
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE FARTHER SOUTHWARD TODAY...AS THE CENTER OF THE
LARGE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE WARM ANTICYCLONE NOW OVER THE PLAINS
SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR ANY MAINLAND CONVECTION TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
TO THE KEYS ON MONDAY...BUT THEN WINDS BECOME EASTERLY FROM 700 ON
UP ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT STILL REMAIN QUITE DRY ABOVE 700 MB.
THESE FACTORS WILL AID IN THWARTING THE DIURNAL MESOSCALE CONVECTION
COMMON IN EARLY AUGUST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN AXIS OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE
WAVE...NOW POSITIONED FROM APPROX 15 TO 25 N AND ALONG 60W...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE BAHAMAS ON
WEDNESDAY..BEFORE MOVING ACROSS CUBA ALONG KEYS LONGITUDE ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT. FOR THE WEEKEND...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING REDEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE
KEYS. WILL NEED TO LOOK CLOSER AT THIS AS THE MID AND UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES.

IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS...TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE NIGHT
OF VERY DRY CONDITIONS. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH
OR NEAR THE KEYS. CUMULUS LINE WILL REMAIN VERTICALLY CHALLENGED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT PWAT SHOULD RISE FROM NEAR
1.50 INCHES TO NEAR 1.80 INCHES BY 12Z. DESPITE A SLOW RETURN WITH
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL HOLD WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...UNLESS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CHANGE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...12Z UKMET...NAM...AND GFS ALL ARE SPINNING
UP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 30N 75W...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH PAST RUNS. THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY STILL CONTINUES TO SHOW
ONLY A WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE HERE. ACROSS THE KEYS...THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SET UP NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS. EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CUMULUS LINE
CONVECTION TO RETURN. LIGHT EAST LOW AND MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHERLY TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO WORK INTO THE UPPER KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY. SO...AM
HOLDING WITH 30 PERCENT FOR MONDAY FOR NOW FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE HIGHER FOR THE UPPER KEYS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE HOLDING THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
THE KEYS. AM INCLINED TO INDICATE VARIABLE WINDS...BUT WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE SURFACE...AIDING IN CUMULUS LINE
DEVELOPMENT.PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.75 AND
2.00 INCHES...CLOSER TO AVERAGE. SO...WILL HOLD WITH LOW CHANCE
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...12Z MODELS...UKMET...NAM...AND GFS BRING
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH NOW NEAR 30N 75W SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE
KEYS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BECAUSE ALL OF THE MODELS DO NOT
SEEM TO INITIALIZE THIS WELL...AM THINKING IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE KEYS...AND WILL NOT FORECAST THIS WEAK
TROUGH TO HAVE AFFECT ON THE WEATHER AS OF YET. WILL HOLD WITH CLIMO
POPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...THE 12Z GFS HINTS A RETURN
TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW AND MID-LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...STRETCHING ACROSS THE PENINSULA.

[stormchazer]

You should be looking at a weak spin at 40W - 9N

See if it's there tomorrow when it is better seen on visible loop.

Looks like there is a TUTT north of it that is enhancing the convection and helping to generate some t urning. Its just the kind of home grown system that can sneak up on you. Agreed that it will be interesting to see if anything is there tomorrow on the visual.

[Sjones]

Does anyone have any maps on this thing yet?