99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Whatever piece of this reaches the bay of
campeche would be worth watching. Note that
it is really trying to hold together as it
nears the bay of campeche.

[Nimbus]

not sure why we are not talking about this more

Most of the wave energy is over land and on a track south of the BOC. Once we see a big burst of convection tommorrow in the BOC the thread may get trashed again and it will be back to reading bookmarks. Maybe ARIC will post some low level and mid level steering charts?

[Aric Dunn]

not sure why we are not talking about this more

Most of the wave energy is over land and on a track south of the BOC. Once we see a big burst of convection tommorrow in the BOC the thread may get trashed again and it will be back to reading bookmarks. Maybe ARIC will post some low level and mid level steering charts?

i will later! not home.. but can tell you this .. that wnw motion is going to continue which should bring it over the BOC later this evening.

[rainman31]

A local TV met did mention the possibility of some of it breaking off and heading towards Texas.

[HURAKAN]

Gosh, yesterday I firmly believed I had buried 99L with the head down and feet up, but today there is still hope. It's said that the last thing to die is hope!!!

[Stratosphere747]

not sure why we are not talking about this more

Most of the wave energy is over land and on a track south of the BOC. Once we see a big burst of convection tommorrow in the BOC the thread may get trashed again and it will be back to reading bookmarks. Maybe ARIC will post some low level and mid level steering charts?

Mid



Upper

[Cyclone1]

This wave cannot make up its mind. FORM OR DIE!

[perk]

A local TV met did mention the possibility of some of it breaking off and heading towards Texas.

Can you share with us that local met's name.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

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It sounds reasonable that a WNW track
would put it over the bay of campeche
and then lead it towards the
mexico/texas border
so those in south texas should
watch this IMO.

This does have the potential to develop over the bay
of campeche. Heck it already has a spin.
I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a tropical
depression over the bay of campeche.
99L is FAR from Dead, especially for texas/mexico.

[rainman31]

A local TV met did mention the possibility of some of it breaking off and heading towards Texas.

Can you share with us that local met's name.

He was on nbc either last night or this morning, and he is a new TV met, a young guy. He only said that it was a slight possibilty.
I just went to their website, it was Jonathan Novack.

[Sanibel]

Though it does look impressive with its large spin, I think the track is still mainly west and into Mexico, though I will grant you it has moved slightly WNW today - but not enough.

[Opal storm]

Well IF it makes it into the BOC it might have a chance to briefly develop, something like TS Bret in 2005 maybe.

[Sanibel]

Hmm. The mid-level vortex has come much further NW today. More than I expected.

Let's see if it refires tonight over the BOC.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I expect some refiring over the bay of campeche.
There could be a tropical storm out of this. Vigorous circulation.
That mid level circulation just has to work its way down to the
surface.

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow, i regret saying farwell to it yesterday, this actually may have a chance, but if it remains over land i say farwell. And if it does go over the BOC this might be something to look at, does anyone know the conditions in the BOC for development?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It is currently moving towards the BOC and will
likely be in the BOC within 12 hours. There, it
will need to be watched closely, as heat content
is high in the BOC.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

notice the change in wind direction.

[HURAKAN]

Could we get a Bret-like, Gert-like, and/or José-like system from 99L? It will be very interesting to see what happens in the BOC and how far north in the bay does it get.

[MGC]

There is a slight possibility of development in the BOC IMO.....MGC

[El Nino]

You have so much faith and courage in looking at this wave. I couldn't be all the time looking at that without becoming crazy. We'll see by tomorrow.