Vigorous Wave to Emerge Africa

[jaxfladude]

Here the wave loop,,, sorry if it is too big. In any case I will change it.

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It will go "POOF" once the wave moves out over the ocean.....give two to three days at most if that.....

[Fego]

From the del NHC:

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 11N32W 9N40W 9N50W 11N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NEAR 10N21W AND 12N29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W...AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 40W-48W. AN IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA ASSOCIATED WITH A 1003 MB SFC LOW NEAR 17N7W.

[Aquawind]

From the del NHC:

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 11N32W 9N40W 9N50W 11N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NEAR 10N21W AND 12N29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W...AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 40W-48W. AN IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA ASSOCIATED WITH A 1003 MB SFC LOW NEAR 17N7W.

The Low is pretty far north but the convection, pressure, and size are impressive. Should be an interesting week as this thing fights for life.

[El Nino]

If it goes poof over sea, you should than explain to me why it's so intense over land.

Anyway, I don't want to excite myself for this thing. I had sufficiently dissapointing last year about such clusters getting poof over sea.

[gatorcane]

It's funny that we are talking about a low that is not even in the Atlantic Ocean yet -- thousands of miles west of affecting any landmass

It does look VERY impressive and has a noticeable spin -- but I do agree with Hyperstorm here. It should meet its fate as it moves off Africa similar to the previous wave. Even if it makes it for a short-time it will encounter hostile conditions in the Atlantic.

But like hyperstorm I am awaiting the BANG that should start in late Aug-September in the ITCZ area...since it is so active.

[Derek Ortt]

convection is over the land because the land is so warm

Once this hits the cold water north of the CV Islands, the lapse rate will dramaticly be reduced, making the atmosphere far more stable. Thus, I expect a significant reduction in convective activity unless this takes a southerly dive

[jaxfladude]

It's funny that we are talking about a low that is not even in the Atlantic Ocean yet -- thousands of miles west of affecting any landmass

It does look VERY impressive and has a noticeable spin -- but I do agree with Hyperstorm here. It should meet its fate as it moves off Africa similar to the previous wave. Even if it makes it for a short-time it will encounter hostile conditions in the Atlantic.

But like hyperstorm I am awaiting the BANG that should start in late Aug-September in the ITCZ area...since it is so active.

Sorry but there will not be any "BANG" this hurricane season...maybe next year....

[Sanibel]

There's a monster wave about to exit Africa. Let's see if the cool Atlantic vaporizes it like all the others.

[gatorcane]

convection is over the land because the land is so warm

Once this hits the cold water north of the CV Islands, the lapse rate will dramaticly be reduced, making the atmosphere far more stable. Thus, I expect a significant reduction in convective activity unless this takes a southerly dive

Per my post Derek -- agreed.

I expect it to go POOF soon

[cheezyWXguy]

It's funny that we are talking about a low that is not even in the Atlantic Ocean yet -- thousands of miles west of affecting any landmass

It does look VERY impressive and has a noticeable spin -- but I do agree with Hyperstorm here. It should meet its fate as it moves off Africa similar to the previous wave. Even if it makes it for a short-time it will encounter hostile conditions in the Atlantic.

But like hyperstorm I am awaiting the BANG that should start in late Aug-September in the ITCZ area...since it is so active.

Sorry but there will not be any "BANG" this hurricane season...maybe next year....

wow..if the professionals cant be sure, what makes you so confident...its august 5th, and theres no way to be 100%sure about what will happen this year

[Meso]

Haha It's posts like jaxfladude's that make me laugh. People trying to predict the outcome
of an entire season.Which isn't even at peak yet.



It will likely die down a lot once it hits water,but it has a low pressure with it and it's got spin..It could always be a player down the road..Don't count on it,but don't write it off either.

[flwxwatcher]

Haha It's posts like jaxfladude's that make me laugh. People trying to predict the outcome
of an entire season.Which isn't even at peak yet.



It will likely die down a lot once it hits water,but it has a low pressure with it and it's got spin..It could always be a player down the road..Don't count on it,but don't write it off either.

Almost every year if the tropics don't get off to a fast start you see a post or two saying the season may be a dud. Like you said, we haven't reached the peak of the season. I suspect in a few weeks we will have forgotten about no bang in the tropics this year posts:):):)

[Lowpressure]

It is a shame when the best looking system so far this year is over Senegal! I agree, it better dip south or it has little chance, if any. Wow it looks good, 4 degrees south, this would be very interesting.

[jimvb]

I note that the 2007 Aug 6 06Z GFS is calling for a vigorous storm to form on the African coast on August 11. Then it calls for that storm to cross the Atlantic,and by the 22nd it is north of the Bahamas threatening the Carolinas. The 00Z run also shows this storm but shows it going fish long before it approaches the coast. The GFS does not show much coming from Africa until the 11th.

[Meso]

http://aviation.weathersa.co.za/sigwaf18.gif
The ITCZ dips quite a bit south... So it may move more south before emerging off Africa..Although it very well may be another poof...

[Anthonyl]

Initially when this thread was posted I had identified this wave near 25w has having the greatest potential for near term for development. It looks to have a fairly decent opportunity for cyclogenisis, warm waters, low shear environment albeit an abaiting SAL to its north. It seems to be convecting quit a bit along the ITCZ.

[Lowpressure]

Initially when this thread was posted I had identified this wave near 25w has having the greatest potential for near term for development. It looks to have a fairly decent opportunity for cyclogenisis, warm waters, low shear environment albeit an abaiting SAL to its north. It seems to be convecting quit a bit along the ITCZ.

O.K. sorry for any confusion. The wave near 25, is in a better location and does not look bad, for now. Convection needs to persist.

FYI, there is another thread started on this, I do not think we were certain which wave you originally were discussing.

[Derek Ortt]

there is now ave near 25W. Areas of convection do not always equal tropical waves

[Cyclone1]

there is now ave near 25W. Areas of convection do not always equal tropical waves

According to the 12z surface analysis, there most certainly is a wave near 25W.

[Fego]

Now you see it, now you do not see it!... and it is over land.