Calm Before the Storm?

[gatorcane]

It's eerily quiet in the Atlantic for Aug. 6th. In fact it's really pretty much dead out there from Africa to the United States.......

There is some moderate convection just NE of the islands where development seems unlikely. There is also a tropical wave way out in the central Atlantic where I think slow development is possible.

But besides that...there is nothing.

Is it me or do you feel like its just the calm before the storm?

[ronjon]

I dunno gatorcane. So far, we are seeing lots of stable air and saharan dust over the east Atlantic, persistent troughs along the east coast, and a generally weak Bermuda high. In Florida, we have yet to establish a true easterly flow regime that is "normal" during the summer rainy season. Everything at this point looks like a high shear, TUTT dominated, SAL enveloped season like last year. The long range models from a couple of weeks ago were showing a strengtening Atlantic Ridge with the westerlies pulling up into Canada. That hasn't happened yet. I know things can turn on a dime so its still too early to write this season off but right now conditions look very unfavorable for significant tropical development over the next 7 to 10 days.

[Stormcenter]

It's eerily quiet in the Atlantic for Aug. 6th. In fact it's really pretty much dead out there from Africa to the United States.......

There is some moderate convection just NE of the islands where development seems unlikely. There is also a tropical wave way out in the central Atlantic where I think slow development is possible.

But besides that...there is nothing.

Is it me or do you feel like its just the calm before the storm?

It was just like this last year too. Maybe it's just mother nature balancing things out after the 2004 & 2005 seasons.

[Stormcenter]

I dunno gatorcane. So far, we are seeing lots of stable air and saharan dust over the east Atlantic, persistent troughs along the east coast, and a generally weak Bermuda high. In Florida, we have yet to establish a true easterly flow regime that is "normal" during the summer rainy season. Everything at this point looks like a high shear, TUTT dominated, SAL enveloped season like last year. The long range models from a couple of weeks ago were showing a strengtening Atlantic Ridge with the westerlies pulling up into Canada. That hasn't happened yet. I know things can turn on a dime so its still too early to write this season off but right now conditions look very unfavorable for signifcant tropical develeopment over the next 7 to 10 days.

Good post.

[Sabanic]

It is very quiet though, and makes you wonder what if anything the peak of the season will bring.

[gatorcane]

Ronjon, one thing that you mentioned about the lack of easterly flow across the FL peninsula couldn't be more true. I cannot remember a time where South Florida has seen generally W to SW winds the ENTIRE summer with just a few days of easterly seabreezes that managed to push inland. I'm also niticing that it "just feels" like fall is already around the corner as the air has been dry at times, although hot. The Atlantic is still somewhat hostile now but we have seen times in the past where things change pretty quickly. TUTT lows typically start retreating by mid August and the ULL winds die off pretty quickly then also. I guess we'll see if we see any changes that typically take place from now through the next 2 weeks.

[ronjon]

Jeff Masters Blog today:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=738&tstamp=200708