Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

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Steve
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#21 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 04, 2007 2:09 pm

>>According to one of JBs videos from a day or two back, the teleconnection for Usagi would be a storm hitting south FL, recurving into the Panhandle and then moving up through Tennessee before turning back NE.

It's kind of a sharp recurve to hit both sides of Japan. I haven't looked at the upper air over the WPAC, but I'm guessing it's due to the nose of a pointed or sideways oriented and/or flatter ridge poking into central Japan. I guess we'll have to look for the shape of the western periphery of the Atlantic Ridge and where it's poking in next weekend to see if there was validity and comparison between the patterns. IMHO, while there can be similarities (often striking) between the patterns east of Asia and North America, weak systems usually indicate mixed signals downstream (especially with another weak system landfalling to the south). No matter what happens, it will be interesting to see what clues (and how strong those clues are) the WPAC teleconnections might be providing for the Atlantic season as we progress.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

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Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#22 Postby flwxwatcher » Sat Aug 04, 2007 7:27 pm

I read the J.B.article and saw the video also when he mentioned the South Florida to Panhandle teleconnection. The EURO has been keeping the Ridge in the WPAC through the long range period and shows a Typhoon passing between China and Korea before making landfall in China in the 9- 10 day period. Lets see how this teleconnects to the Western Atlantic down the road. Also 2004 had several Typhoons recurving across Japan with some recurving much like Usagi did and we all know the Hurricane strikes to Florida that year. This may not mean a darn thing in regards to this year but since J.B. and some other Mets have said they feel the Florida and Gulf Coast region is the biggest threat area this year it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/cgi-bin/dt/tr ... ef92bd7e56
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Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#23 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sat Aug 04, 2007 7:38 pm

One thing about fears of an "ominous pattern". Maybe a ridge will be over the East Coast and drive a bunch of Erin/Andrew/Katrina two strike (Florida then Gulf) storms. Or maybe not. It was about two weeks ago that Dr. Masters, based on long term GFS from the time, made the same prediction, for about now.
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Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#24 Postby MGC » Sat Aug 04, 2007 8:20 pm

I don't see anything developing the next few day. So, I'd say the first week of August will be TC free in the Atlantic basin. Out in the CV region, SAL looks to be a major problem to TC formation. That big ULL north of the Leeward Islands should keep shear high in the central Atlantic. The only area of disturbed weather, 99L is moving inland a is not a factor. Looks like we may have to wait several days to track something......MGC
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Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#25 Postby boca » Sat Aug 04, 2007 8:27 pm

Whats the chances that it would remain like this in the whole month of August. My guess is not very high. I love to track something since 99L was good practice for us. If the Bermida high builds in and SAL decreases some, maybe something will form within 2 weeks. Also that ULL north of the Leewards is putting a wrench into tropical development too.
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#26 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 05, 2007 3:05 am

Hey Extreme,

The 8/5 00Z CMC
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

is somewhat alluding to the teleconnection. I know it's posted in another thread but that would be money if it hit. It would be a combination of what the WPAC did and what I saw in the flatter Atlantic ridge. Who knows if this will stick by next weekend (CMC showed it in the 6 day range FWIW which is a hair early, but...)

Steve
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Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#27 Postby flwxwatcher » Sun Aug 05, 2007 8:55 am

The NOGAPS is showing something as well. The UKMET had been showing a feature much like this a few days ago also.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#28 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 05, 2007 12:04 pm

flwx - If I'm reading that correctly UKMET is showing an east-setting Atlantic High that will continue to suppress systems off Africa while the loose troughy synoptic over the west basin allows moistening for homebrew storms. Is that correct?
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Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#29 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 05, 2007 12:57 pm

I still think it has time to be a decent year as far as storms go. Hower, it something doesn't form in the next 2 to 3 weeks, then yes, I think we can say that it will probably be similar to 2006, because then we will be getting towards September...

2007 could be one of those short but intense seasons with all activity in September, or it could end up more like 2006 with all bark and no bite..Remember last year how September and October were almost non-events compared to normal activity?.... I think it's too early to speculate for sure though. We will know one way or another which direction the season is headed though in about 3 weeks...
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Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#30 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:08 am

New York has a front pushing rain from the west and a High of 79* in August. This is abnormal and a sign that Master's Bermuda High scenario has not materialized. We had strange cooler drier air last night here on Sanibel where there's a serious under amount of rainfall.

There are no waves doing anything serious through the whole basin. 2006 disruptiveness appears to be repeating. ULL's are spinning in the Atlantic. Weak trough's dominate CONUS. The waves that do form don't develop - even though they look deep and curved on satellite.

Still, though, I get the feeling the basin is just waiting to hit the formation threshold and get going. Otherwise this year really is a 2006 repeat.
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Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#31 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:15 am

South Florida has seen a total lack of any established easterlies (indicating a lack of Bermuda High) in about 3 months.

Looks alot like the signs of fall are already around the corner.
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Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#32 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:18 am

Well the current JTWC grapics for TD 06W and Pabuk would lead one to believe that after a sharply pointed ridge might materialize, the Atlantic Ridge should be building into the CONUS. 06W would be curving toward the west and a rendevoux with Vietnam while Pabuk would hit Taiwan and then landfall as a TS about midway between Hong Kong and Shanghai.

https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php

Steve
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Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#33 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 06, 2007 11:01 am

I made the point a month ago or so that the lack of any Nino this year combined with similar disruptive conditions in the Atlantic could suggest that the disruptiveness of 2006 wasn't entirely related to the Nino event, as some suggest, and could be at least partially due to other global weather patterns that are again in place this year.
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Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#34 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 06, 2007 11:46 am

>>I made the point a month ago or so that the lack of any Nino this year combined with similar disruptive conditions in the Atlantic could suggest that the disruptiveness of 2006 wasn't entirely related to the Nino event, as some suggest, and could be at least partially due to other global weather patterns that are again in place this year.

I think that is possible as absent a strong ENSO signal, other factors will take larger precedence. At the same time, From a Live Science Link (circa 2005), the average date of a "D" storm from 1944-1996 was on August 30th. Perhaps it's down to like August 28th or whatever since then.

2005 Saw Dennis form on July 6th, and this was the earliest date since records have been kept (1860) that the "D" storm formed on (Cat1).

As per the NOAA link below (See August), in an average year, 5 named storms have formed by the end of August.

IMHO, I wouldn't start critiquing the basin based on anything. Remember, early August is NOT the peak of the season and probably shouldn't be used to correlate activity to the rest of what is to come.

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/res ... nes02.html

JMO

Steve

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#35 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Aug 06, 2007 12:09 pm

JB pointed out today that the typhoon about to hit China will be west of Usagi and this shows a building ridge in that area. This led him to say that he has "a great deal of doubt about any monster troughs that show up"..basically meaning that if this is teleconnected to the Atlantic, it looks like building ridge pattern with the absence of a "monster" trough is possibly in our future (though he did say "sympathetic" [a.k.a. weak] troughs are still possible). Will be interesting to watch...
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#36 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 06, 2007 1:11 pm

Looks like a pattern change to me. It is just about time for the Tropical Wave Trains to begin to come into play. We usually don't see Africa waves developing before mid-Aug. Looks to me that the coming pattern could cause the SE CONUS some problems if it verifies because there is VERY little doubt that the season is about to crank up, all the essential ingredients are there. I think we see our first real TW developing further by end of next week.
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Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#37 Postby skysummit » Mon Aug 06, 2007 1:23 pm

A little off topic from what's being discussed, but this high pressure sitting over the Gulf this week causing ridiculous heat and heat indexes is only going to crank up the bath water in the Gulf a notch. I suspect we'll start seeing steam by Thursday. :lol:
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#38 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 06, 2007 1:30 pm

>>A little off topic from what's being discussed, but this high pressure sitting over the Gulf this week causing ridiculous heat and heat indexes is only going to crank up the bath water in the Gulf a notch. I suspect we'll start seeing steam by Thursday.

You may recall my notes from a couple of weeks back that it was required that we got some cold fronts in here so that summer could start. It's been hot as **** ever since. :cold:
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#39 Postby gboudx » Mon Aug 06, 2007 2:13 pm

Steve wrote:You may recall my notes from a couple of weeks back that it was required that we got some cold fronts in here so that summer could start. It's been hot as **** ever since. :cold:


I remember you making that comment, both here and on sr.com. Good call. Here in DFW, summer has finally arrived as of this past weekend. Gone is the rain, and in is the hot and dry weather typical of summer here. We'll probably see 100 for the 1st time later this week which will put us at about 7th for latest all-time to reach 100.
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Re: Ominious synoptics as we head into mid August

#40 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 06, 2007 2:38 pm

Gulf off Sanibel: 91*
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