99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

[Chacor]

I presume this is the kind of two-way talk people were complaining (for want of a better word) about...

[Cyclone1]

Man, I joined this forum waaay too late... I missed all the fun.

Anyway, Chacor's right. We should probably cut down on the chat-room like conversation.

[wxman57]

Ok, everyone, repeat after me:

"It's dead, Jim!"

[Rainband]

Ok, everyone, repeat after me:

"It's dead, Jim!"

All kidding aside. Wxman57 sumed it up with this post. The reason why we have Pros is to learn from them and take what we learn and apply that to our resoning. I understand there are two kinds of storm enthusiasts and I respect both camps. Don't worry we will have our share of storms this year. I fear in a few weeks time both the worry some watchers and the Yea theres a storm coming tracker will both have the coffee on for the night.

[DrewFL]

Bones is right!

[Aric Dunn]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061517
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 6 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBED WEATHER IS
LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...JUST TO THE
EAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
LATER TODAY AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

Low reformed off shore not quite dead yet. Low very clearly visible moving almost parallel to the coast at this time.

[Sanibel]

The center is clearly spinning on visible satellite. It just missed making back over water and is moving into Mexico now.

If this headed north into the Gulf it would have become a cyclone for sure.

99L is telling us 2007 isn't so dead.

[Aric Dunn]

The center is clearly spinning on visible satellite. It just missed making back over water and is moving into Mexico now.

If this headed north into the Gulf it would have become a cyclone for sure.

99L is telling us 2007 isn't so dead.

its moving almost parallel to the coast .. a new center is off shore

[Sanibel]

Disagree Aric.

Go to the GOES Floater of 99L and run the visible loop. You'll see the lower cloud spin is clearly centered over land and moving into Mexico. Nothing forming offshore I'm afraid.

No doubt that persistent spin would have gone cyclone if it tracked into the GOM over the last few days.

[clfenwi]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 06 2007

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 4N AND IS MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO PACK A PUNCH EVEN THOUGH IT HAS BEEN OVER LAND THE
PAST 24 HR. STRONG CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ARE TESTAMENT TO THIS WAVES' VIRILITY.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Can't recall seeing that word used wrt a wave before!

The same forecaster described 99L thusly on Sunday

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W N OF 5N AND IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
THIS WAS ABOUT AS STRONG AS A WAVE GETS BEFORE DEVELOPING INTO A
DEPRESSION. THE ONLY PROBLEM WAS IT MOVED OVER LAND..THUS
CONVECTION HAS BECOME SCATTERED. STRONGEST CONVECTION THIS
MORNING IS ON THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA
WITH ANOTHER BATCH OVER NRN GUATEMALA.

[Aric Dunn]

Disagree Aric.

Go to the GOES Floater of 99L and run the visible loop. You'll see the lower cloud spin is clearly centered over land and moving into Mexico. Nothing forming offshore I'm afraid.

No doubt that persistent spin would have gone cyclone if it tracked into the GOM over the last few days.

you clearly dont see the low off shore .. there are two swirls the one inland and the one offshore.. and i have looked at the loop. i even posted it a commented on it before. there is low forming off shore easily discernible from the inland swirl they are spinning around each other. i believe the one offshore will take footing.

most likely it will move inland .. fact is.. not dead until there is nothing left...

[Sanibel]

I see what you are talking about. Most likely a vortex. If it IS a relocation I'll give you credit for spotting it. But, if you look very closely, the main "muscle" center at low level is just inland and headed into deep Mexico...

[Cyclenall]

Man, I joined this forum waaay too late... I missed all the fun.

Anyway, Chacor's right. We should probably cut down on the chat-room like conversation.

And I thought I missed a lot! I wished I was here from early 2004, where it looked awesome. For some reason I never thought of weather boards until it popped in my head.

[HURAKAN]

Man, I joined this forum waaay too late... I missed all the fun.

Anyway, Chacor's right. We should probably cut down on the chat-room like conversation.

And I thought I missed a lot! I wished I was here from early 2004, where it looked awesome. For some reason I never thought of weather boards until it popped in my head.

I got really lucky to join 11 days before the 2004 Hurricane Season!! It has been a blast!!!

[DrewFL]

Watch out EPAC! But this sucker is done over here!

[lrak]

its tail is still wiggling. Ewww.

[Bane]

wow, this forum really is bored. we just had 6 threads on an invest.

[HURAKAN]

wow, this forum really is bored. we just had 6 threads on an invest.

Actually, 7 threads, but that's not the point. 99L kept everyone guessing from the start until the end. It was one of the most interesting Invest in the Atlantic since a long time because it was at one point close to a depression or storm, and at the same time as death as possible but still was able to reorganize a little bit in the WCAR.

Moreover, there was nothing else in the Atlantic!!!