Tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

This tropical wave will be added to the 2:05pm TPC Discussion Analysis

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Take a look at the recent satellite picture..

[hcane27]

close-up view doesn't show any cyclonic turning at all ....

[Lowpressure]

Looks like a hair ball.

We will see, it looks like a nice convection blow-up, but we have seen this sort of thing this season go poof. Convection needs to persist, to become interesting.

[ronjon]

hairball, yikes ...what this blowup shows me is that SSTs are warming enuff for convective flareup and there appears to be an ULH overhead (notice the fingering effect of cirrus on the edges). Persistence is the key.

[skysummit]

close-up view doesn't show any cyclonic turning at all ....

There is a VERY BROAD turning to it.

EUMETSAT Animation

[caneman]

Haven't see none out there hold this much convection. Looks like the waves are coming off stronger and holding together better. Could be ramp up time.

[Sanibel]

I'd pay attention to this simply because of its shape, and the "hairball" look on visible. That hazy upper is sometimes the sign of an upburst in air in the system due to formation.

Back in 2005 I posted that a small burst in the ITCZ should form because of it's shape. That shape was very similar to this one. The 2005 wave dissappeared making me disappointed in my prediction abilities - however its convection persisted and merged with a wave. This system then developed into Hurricane Katrina.

I'm not saying this one will beat the wicked 2007 ITCZ, the 2005 disturbance (TD10) didn't - but note that shape.

[flashflood]

Haven't see none out there hold this much convection. Looks like the waves are coming off stronger and holding together better. Could be ramp up time.

This one seems to be a bit further south in warmer SST's. It would probably sustain itself if this is the "ramp up time" and subsidence slowly gives way.

I do notice that there is more convection out there, and in other areas as well. Could be another sign as well.

[Dynamic]

This image was taked yesterday around 11:30PM, I was observed this area south of "Cabo Verde" and marked it.



Now look like this (around noon), very nice change today. We will wait if this one persist!

[Derek Ortt]

This feature is NOT a tropical wave.

It is located at the base of the inverted ridge between two waves, one near 40W and the other the large one about to emerge into the Atlantic.

It also just recently spit out a very nice outflow boundary, so I am not expecting anything from thsi area of convection

[skysummit]

This feature is NOT a tropical wave.

It is located at the base of the inverted ridge between two waves, one near 40W and the other the large one about to emerge into the Atlantic.

It also just recently spit out a very nice outflow boundary, so I am not expecting anything from thsi area of convection

So you're saying the OPC is incorrect then?

[Steve H.]

I'm more interested in the turning area to the WNW of this. Seems to be organizing. Haven't had a chance to even see what longitude it is, but this is the area to watch IMO.

[Derek Ortt]

it is not showing up as a true TW. Was just at the HRD daily briefing and it did not fit into the wave pattern. Is a part of the wave pattern, but as I said, it itself is not a TW

[x-y-no]

Looks like a hair ball.

I'm picturing a giant cat in place of Africa ...

[Meso]

I'm not sure what the CMC is developing,but it's around the same area I think.

[fci]

Thanks Derek.
Untrained eye here saw the "hairball" and thought it was an impressive area.
Thanks for the clarification!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TPC 2:05pm Discussion

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED ALONG 24/25W S OF
15N...ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP
WELL IN THE METSAT-9 HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM. ALTHOUGH LITTLE EVIDENCE
WAS NOTED IN THE DAKAR RAOB DATA...THE FEATURE DID APPEAR TO
PASS BAMAKO MALI LATE ON AUG 3. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 24W-28W.

[Derek Ortt]

CMC is developing the wave to the west of this psuedo wave

[gatorcane]

Meso,

the CMC is developing the tropical wave with mid-level cyclonic spin a bit further west.

I opened up a thread on this