Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic with Cyclonic Spin

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gatorcane
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Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic with Cyclonic Spin

#1 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 06, 2007 8:42 am

This is the one I would be paying attention to.

Wind shear is pretty light in the region and the water temps are nominally warm enough. There is good cyclonic turning and moderate to scattered showers and thunderstorms. It's also starting to pull away from the ITCZ.

This wave will move W at about 15 mph over the next several days. As we get deeper into August we need to start looking really closely at these waves

Look at 12N 32W.

Image

Click here to see the cyclonic turning:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 06, 2007 9:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby skysummit » Mon Aug 06, 2007 8:46 am

Ok then, I'll put my pic here too since this is the dedicated thread. This wave caught my eye yesterday morning and pulsed with convection throughout the day. This morning, cyclonic turning is evident on visible. It's moving into an area a little more favorable with lower wind shear. It's little dry ahead of the wave, but does have a nice moisture envelope.

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic that Bares Watching

#3 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 06, 2007 8:47 am

Skysummit I agree with you and think it warrants a new thread....since we are approaching mid August this area is peaking my interest.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic that Bares Watching

#4 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 06, 2007 8:49 am

Here are the wind shear maps showing favorable conditions for slow development over the next several days. I think the NHC will mention it later today if it contain sustain convection throughout the day:

Image

Image
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#5 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 06, 2007 8:52 am

The one negative going against is the SAL. It does have an area to deal with out ahead of it:

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic that Bares Watching

#6 Postby Anthonyl » Mon Aug 06, 2007 8:54 am

The NHC has an area of low pressure in the vicinity of the wave.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/ATSA_latest.gif
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic that Bares Watching

#7 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 06, 2007 8:55 am

Yes, it does and that is why they may mention it in their TWO if it can sustain some convection throughout the day:

Image
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#8 Postby flashflood » Mon Aug 06, 2007 9:05 am

Hmmm, looks like another one of those shallow MLC's that the models are not interested in. :roll: However, I would think that the subsidence should begin to slacken off a bit. This would allow the wave to progress since there is not much shear in the short term to disrupt a very slowly organizing circulation.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic with Cyclonic Spin

#9 Postby ronjon » Mon Aug 06, 2007 9:33 am

Good ole CMC develops it. Not sure that is saying very much. GFS has been on and off again developing it over the last several days.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007080600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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#10 Postby skysummit » Mon Aug 06, 2007 9:46 am

I believe this is 4 runs in a row now that the Canadian develops it.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic with Cyclonic Spin

#11 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 06, 2007 9:47 am

ronjon wrote:Good ole CMC develops it. Not sure that is saying very much. GFS has been on and off again developing it over the last several days.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007080600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

The run isnt very reliable, although it maybe more reliable than other runs on other storms, as this is something that is already out there, instead of something that isnt even there yet(aka phantom cyclones)...we just need to wait and see what happens
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Re:

#12 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 06, 2007 9:52 am

skysummit wrote:I believe this is 4 runs in a row now that the Canadian develops it.


Note Carribean islanders that the CMC sends a system into the NE Leeward islands, although keeps it weak at this point.

Jeff Masters is somewhat bullish on ITCZ development but doesn't mention where:

Well, I'm back to blogging after an enjoyable week off camping and paddling along Lake Huron. It was a good time to be gone--significant landfalling storms in late July and early August are uncommon, and this year was no exception. The quiet conditions look likely to continue this week. There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting any development over the next seven days. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the band of active thunderstorms between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands that frequently serves as a genesis region for August tropical storms, is relatively quiet right now. However, it would not surprise me to see some activity in the ITCZ late this week. Ocean temperatures continue to warm, headed towards their early September peak. Wind shear and Saharan dry air/dust activity are near normal or below normal between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The long-range steering current forecast from the GFS model continues to show a near-normal pattern, with the jet stream not forecast to "lock in" to a configuration that will enhance the risk of a hurricane strike to any particular region. But it isn't until around August 18 that hurricane activity historically begins its major activity period, so we may still have another quiet week or two ahead.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic with Cyclonic Spin

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:29 am

ABNT20 KNHC 061517
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 6 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBED WEATHER IS
LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...JUST TO THE
EAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
LATER TODAY AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



No mention of the wave in Atlantic at the 11:30 AM Tropical Weather Outlook.
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#14 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 06, 2007 12:57 pm

waiting for the TWD at 2:05, CMC develops this system (and for once its not a phantom system)...
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic with Cyclonic Spin

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 06, 2007 1:03 pm

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 26N MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE INVERTED V SHAPE
IN THE SURROUNDING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
LIMITED TO THE SRN PORTION OF THE AXIS WHERE IT INTERSECTS WITH
THE ITCZ...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 32W-40W.


2 PM Discussion of this wave by TPC.

No turning in this wave as they dont mention anything.
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#16 Postby skysummit » Mon Aug 06, 2007 1:07 pm

Oh well, I guess my eyes are deceiving me 8-)
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic with Cyclonic Spin

#17 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 06, 2007 1:09 pm

I believe that TWD is conservative and they want to wait the rest of the day to watch it to see if the apparent "spin" continues. There is no question there is a spin if you look at the visible loops.
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#18 Postby southerngreen » Mon Aug 06, 2007 1:36 pm

http://www.accuweather.com/hurricane/sa ... n=atlantic

looks impressive here - is it just "window dressing"?
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Re: Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic with Cyclonic Spin

#19 Postby CourierPR » Mon Aug 06, 2007 1:45 pm

I think that we should refrain from making assumptions based on what is not said by the NHC in discussions and/or outlooks.
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#20 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 06, 2007 1:52 pm

I don't see much of a spin. Looks like nothing but a TW.
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