Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic with Cyclonic Spin

#21 Postby **fci** » Mon Aug 06, 2007 3:27 pm

CMC has been very bullish on systems this season and if it had been right we probabaly would be up to about Felix or Gabrielle by now! (please no one correct me, I am being a a bit facetious!)

#22 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Aug 06, 2007 3:33 pm

Doesn't look bad at this moment! It's worth watching.

Cyclone1 · #23 Postby **Cyclone1** » Mon Aug 06, 2007 3:37 pm

Hmm, the little hair ball is holding on.

#24 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 06, 2007 3:40 pm

this post was discussing the wave out in front of this one -- but it looks like this one may take over....

interesting....will be watching closely as the calendar says we should

Weatherfreak14 · #25 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Aug 06, 2007 3:44 pm

Very unlikely to develop, if it will it will be slow to occur, but something to watch while we wait for something to happen.

#26 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 06, 2007 4:25 pm

Weatherfreak14 wrote:Very unlikely to develop, if it will it will be slow to occur, but something to watch while we wait for something to happen.

Care to elaborate on your thinking of "very unlikely to develop"?

Weatherfreak14 · #27 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Aug 06, 2007 4:33 pm

skysummit wrote:
Weatherfreak14 wrote:Very unlikely to develop, if it will it will be slow to occur, but something to watch while we wait for something to happen.

Care to elaborate on your thinking of "very unlikely to develop"?

Yes IMO the SAL to the north will hinder it from developing in the short term, i think maybe in the next 48-72hrs it may move into more favorible conditions to develop into anything. I give this a les than 10% to develop in the next 36hrs and maybe a 25% chance to devlop at all. but if it has persistance it may be a player.

#28 Postby **hial2** » Mon Aug 06, 2007 4:59 pm

Is there any to standarize "percentage development" chances,or is it subjective?..I've been reading quite a few post with stated percentages and is kinda confusing.....

#29 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Aug 06, 2007 5:07 pm

At least there is some moisture ahead of this wave.

#30 Postby **hial2** » Mon Aug 06, 2007 5:11 pm

Blown_away wrote:
At least there is some moisture ahead of this wave.

Wait a minute...I just read a post that mentioned SAL and dry air hindering this "wave".. :double:

Weatherfreak14 · #31 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Aug 06, 2007 5:27 pm

There is SAL to there north of the system, but yes theire is moisture out ahead of it until it reach that it most likely wont develop until it moves into the moisture.

Edit:Im also talkin about the wave at 35W. not the one behind it, the one behind it has SAL to its north but the wave at 35W-40W is clearing the wave behind it.

hcane27 · #32 Postby **hcane27** » Mon Aug 06, 2007 5:35 pm

my 2 cents ... and that is being generous

1. SAL tends to move at least as fast as the waves, usually faster ... therefore the chances of the latest SAL emerging from Africa, thanks to the large wave yet to exit, may overrun are decent ....
2. the sst's are still a bit on the "iffy" side
3. there is a decent amount of shear ahead, and it would have to relax ... (the trough along 40 has been digging)

so chances for development before 50W are probably minimal at best ....

cheezyWXguy · #33 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Aug 06, 2007 5:41 pm

I wonder if that "hairball" everyone keeps mentioning will "sacrifice" itself so the one in front can form...

#34 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 06, 2007 6:43 pm

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 26N39W 6N35W MOVING
W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE INVERTED V
SHAPE IN THE SURROUNDING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION
IS CONFINED TO THE SRN PORTION OF THE AXIS WHERE IT INTERSECTS
WITH THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
34W-42W. UW-CIMSS SAL ANALYSIS AND EARLIER VIS IMAGES CLEARLY
SHOW A LARGE SAHARAN DUST OUTBREAK BEHIND THIS WAVE.

8 PM Discussion from TPC of this wave.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #35 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Aug 06, 2007 7:11 pm

Think it is sacrificing its
moisture for the wave behind it

Derek Ortt · #36 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Aug 06, 2007 8:15 pm

is the Saharan located in the central Atlantic? That is the only way the wave ahead can "sacrifice its moisture"

This wave may have a chance as the wave behind that is about to emerge can disrupt the SAL. That is what happened when both Floyd and Ernesto formed... the waves struggled until the next wave emerged

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #37 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Aug 06, 2007 8:21 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:is the Saharan located in the central Atlantic? That is the only way the wave ahead can "sacrifice its moisture"

This wave may have a chance as the wave behind that is about to emerge can disrupt the SAL. That is what happened when both Floyd and Ernesto formed... the waves struggled until the next wave emerged

I meant the wave far out ahead to the west at the central atlantic not
over Africa...thats the one the thread discusses...I think...So it's over the central atlantic so could it sacrifice
it's moisture?

Derek Ortt · #38 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Aug 06, 2007 9:51 pm

The wave behind is the sacrifical lamb in a SAL case because the SAL moves from east to west

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #39 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:21 pm

Thank you for that clarification.

Meso · #40 Postby **Meso** » Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:11 am

heh entertaining

Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic with Cyclonic Spin

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