TSR final 2007 Atlantic forecast=15/8/4,less U.S. landfalls

[cycloneye]

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/

As always this private group does excellent forecasts and in this one which is the last one for the 2007 season,they continue to forecast an active season,but with less U.S. landfalls.Read the update and any comments about it are welcomed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not all that different than the updated CSU, really.

Numbers seem high, for the season being normal or slightly below (if we ignore sub-tropical systems/pre-season/high latitude late developers), so to verify, it would imply a busy September and October.


My unprofessional gut is about 8 more TCs, give or take, for a near or slightly above normal season.

[cycloneye]

What they are hinting about less U.S. landfalls is that troughing could persist causing more fish and less landfalling storms.Time will tell if TSR is right or not about that.I dont know if it's related to the sentence about less U.S. landfalls but oil is down today over $3.00.

[hial2]

Ah,a topic I know about!..Gasoline futures are down because of a forecasted slow down in the U.S. (and the world's) economy..less economic growth= less oil needed..
Now back to hurricanes....

[El Nino]

Interesting ... Hope to see this really going on.

[Berwick Bay]

I think that forecast could still give make one leery about this season. Its the last number I'm talking about (4 major's). Four majors from eight hurricanes is pretty high. (Believe normal total is 2 out of six hurricanes). Four majors is quite a few devastating storms to be floating around out there this season. Also, even if the number is over by one, three majors would still be a little above average. But suppose the number is under by one?! Five majors is really asking for trouble. In any case out of four majors, it would not be unreasonable to expect at least one of those four to make landfall in the US. If thats the case then 2007 would be another costly year for our coasts.

[Weatherfreak14]

It all depends on if the East coast trough develops and remains there, lately the long term models have been flipping back and forth on taking storms toward the East Coast or making them a fish. Im not looking a the storm because long range is very unreliable, but it gives you a sense on the steering currents COULD be.

[canegrl04]

Given the hostile conditions right now,I don't see how there will be 15 named storms this season.Even 8 hurricanes .This season reminds me of 2000,2001 and last year.But it is still very possible a cane could hit the US this year

[flwxwatcher]

They lower the landfall numbers from July but they still predict 20% above normal U.S. Landfalling activity. Time will tell:):)

[HURRICANELONNY]

Now were in trouble. TSR shouldn't of lowered the landfall. Now the pattern is going to change.

[Derek Ortt]

2000 and 2001 each had 15 named storms.

[flwxwatcher]

Given the hostile conditions right now,I don't see how there will be 15 named storms this season.Even 8 hurricanes .This season reminds me of 2000,2001 and last year.But it is still very possible a cane could hit the US this year

As Derek pointed out 2000 and 2001 both had 15 and both had the Majority of activity from Mid August on. The heart of the season is approaching and unlike last year we are not heading into El Nino conditions but rather staying neutral to heading to a La Nina.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Any landfalls in 00-01? I forget after 05.

[canegrl04]

Any landfalls in 00-01? I forget after 05.

No US landing canes,thankfully.The shear was too high.Some TS's got ripped apart.Some were "zombie" storms.I remember them seemingly die off,but then regain strength again

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

2000: hurricane gordon
landfall as a tropical storm in cedar key
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2000gordon.html



2001: hurricane gabrielle
landfall as a tropical storm in SW florida.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001gabrielle.html

[jaxfladude]

THE FOLLOWING REPLY IS SARCASTIC IN NATURE AND SHOULD BE TREATED AS SUCH:

Hey as long as WE all face a CAT 5 heading towards us or some we love or is a fellow member of this forums, WE WILL *ALL* ARE FINALLY BE HAPPY!

"HAPPY" AS IN:
PANIC...
"HAPPY" AS IN: I WISH I HAD NOT HOPED FOR A BUSY SEASON LIKE 2004/5!!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

THE FOLLOWING REPLY IS SARCASTIC IN NATURE AND SHOULD BE TREATED AS SUCH:

Hey as long as WE all face a CAT 5 heading towards us or some we love or is a fellow member of this forums, WE WILL *ALL* ARE FINALLY BE HAPPY!

"HAPPY" AS IN:
PANIC...
"HAPPY" AS IN: I WISH I HAD NOT HOPED FOR A BUSY SEASON LIKE 2004/5!!!

True. Hurricanes are pretty devastating. Which is why I never hope
for anything stronger than a 40 mph TS.