Signs of change from global models

[skysummit]

8/23...one day before the anniversary of you-know-who...It will never happen,though

Now, you KNOW never to say never! I believe it was Meso who pointed it out in another thread....sure this is long run, however, the GFS has this moving off of Africa and starting to develop in only 4 - 5 days so really it's not that far off. It gives us an area to watch. It looks like the wave it's developing is about 3 - 4 days from the African Coast.

Plus, with the ridge building, it's not too far fetched that a system may develop by the weekend and begin tracking across the Atlantic.

[ronjon]

One thing we will have to monitor over these next several days in the models is the projected strength of the Atlantic Ridge. GFS has been flip flopping between another east coast trough and a building ridge in the next one to two week time frame. The setup depicted on the 06Z run shows a "ridge-runner" sliding along the southern edge of the ridge basically from the mid-Atlantic to SE FL. Looking at the 10 day Euro, it is building back in the Atlantic Ridge after this weekends east coast trough. Pretty scary setup if all of a sudden the weakness along the east coast vanishes and we get a 2004 pattern developing. I'm not a big fan of JB, but this is what he has been saying will happen as we move into the heart of the season.

[Aquawind]

That ridging certainly looks to be important at the end of the 06Z run.. That is one ugly run along the islands heading for the gulf. Something will be out there most likely..

[skysummit]

Yea, I have to admit, that run did give me the chills. Let's not forget it's a very long run though and a lot can happen, however, we're talking about a system that's only 3 - 5 days away so the origination of this possible system really isn't that far.

The building ridge and wet phase MJO moving in for the peak of the season spells trouble.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Where is this run we speak of? I see nothing of impotance?

[Meso]

You mean the GFS run? The run with the hurricane over Florida? :S The pictures are on the previous page

[Stormcenter]

384 hours out!!!!!
Hmmmmm...I have my doubts.

[DESTRUCTION5]

edited

Although this is 384 hrs...I did not see it on the latest run?

[skysummit]

Where is this run we speak of? I see nothing of impotance?

Uhh.....the latest GFS.

Yea....384 hours out, but beginning to develop it in only 3 - 5 days. That's not too far out to ignore.

[Stormcenter]

Where is this run we speak of? I see nothing of impotance?

Uhh.....the latest GFS.

Yea....384 hours out, but beginning to develop it in only 3 - 5 days. That's not too far out to ignore.

And if it doesn't develop in 3-5 days? I'm sorry the NWS has a hard enough time using these very same models predicting whether or not it is going to rain on my outdoor party this weekend. I have hard time worrying about something that it is seeing 16 days out.

[skysummit]

LOL Stormcenter...if it doesn't develop, then GREAT!

No one is worrying, just watching and analyzing. If we don't look at models, then what's the reason to have them?

[Stormcenter]

LOL Stormcenter...if it doesn't develop, then GREAT!

No one is worrying, just watching and analyzing. If we don't look at models, then what's the reason to have them?

I understand....but don't we have enough to worry about now with the Iraq war,fuel prices,local weather, etc. then something that is more than two weeks out if it does develop?

[Meso]

But alas.. This forum isn't about War,Fuel Prices or local weather I understand where you're coming from,but this forum is used to discuss any possibilities that make themselves evident..I enjoy watching which models succeed and which don't at any range out,sure if it doesn't develop.Understandable,but if it does,I enjoy the fact that I'd been monitoring the area for some time.This thread is pretty much aimed for long range model indications,anyone that panics about this is wrong in doing so,but those wanting to monitor it so long seems perfectly sensible.

[skysummit]

LOL Stormcenter...if it doesn't develop, then GREAT!

No one is worrying, just watching and analyzing. If we don't look at models, then what's the reason to have them?

I understand....but don't we have enough to worry about now with the Iraq war,fuel prices,local weather, etc. then something that is more than two weeks out if it does develop?

Well sure we do, but this is hurricane season and this is a tropical forum. I, for one, am not worrying about this. Just using the tools that are available.

[gatorcane]

8/23...one day before the anniversary of you-know-who...It will never happen,though

I tell you folks that is what I fear most. One of the worst hurricanes to hit the U.S was Andrew that ravaged South Florida Aug. 24th, 1992. That happened on a very quiet year also.

So anything can happen.

[Steve]

>>Pretty scary setup if all of a sudden the weakness along the east coast vanishes and we get a 2004 pattern developing. I'm not a big fan of JB, but this is what he has been saying will happen as we move into the heart of the season.

This is tele-predicted by what's happening in Asia with Pabuk and the TD 6W.

>>I understand....but don't we have enough to worry about now with the Iraq war,fuel prices,local weather, etc. then something that is more than two weeks out if it does develop?

Worrying is but a state of mind. It's a tropical forum and people should have as long of a heads-up as people can muster IMHO.

Steve

[gatorcane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071503
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[wzrgirl1]

Where is this run we speak of? I see nothing of impotance?

[Scorpion]

Wow, pretty strong storm. Looks like a Cat 4/5.

[Stormcenter]

From Jeff Masters blog this morning.

The Tropical Atlantic is quiet. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the reliable models are forecasting development of a tropical storm over the next seven days.


That pretty much sums up the season "so far" in 2007.

But I still believe we will get a few (2-3)major threats before seasons end
and really that's all you need to cause trouble.