It looks muy mal.
Luce very bad.
91E in EPAC
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT MON AUG 6 2007
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 875
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IT IS
STILL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT MON AUG 6 2007
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 875
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IT IS
STILL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5597
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
Re: 91E in EPAC
From hurakan's image it looks like the circulation is detached from
the convection
the convection
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TCFA was issued a few hours ago.
WTPN21 PHNC 061930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 116.6W TO 13.6N 123.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 16 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 061900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 117.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.9N 117.3W,
APPROXIMATELY 2190 NM EAST OF HAWAII. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 06-12 HOURS
WITH DEVELOPING BANDING WEST OF THE CENTER. A 061425Z SSMI DEPICTS
AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED ABOUT 60
NM NORTHWEST OF CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE APPARENT LLCC
NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 118.7W. THE 37 GHZ IMAGE DOES INDICATE
DECENT CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT
EASTERLIES WITH THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 071930Z.//
NNNN
WTPN21 PHNC 061930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 116.6W TO 13.6N 123.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 16 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 061900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 117.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.9N 117.3W,
APPROXIMATELY 2190 NM EAST OF HAWAII. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 06-12 HOURS
WITH DEVELOPING BANDING WEST OF THE CENTER. A 061425Z SSMI DEPICTS
AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED ABOUT 60
NM NORTHWEST OF CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE APPARENT LLCC
NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 118.7W. THE 37 GHZ IMAGE DOES INDICATE
DECENT CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT
EASTERLIES WITH THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 071930Z.//
NNNN
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Re: 91E in EPAC
Watching the visible loop,It does like that there are two vortices out there: The one that was exposed and now located around 14N/120W and another around 12N/118.5W. Or it's an optical illusion; we'll see what the QS pass shows...
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE AUG 07 2007
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SFC LOW PRES 1009 MB AT 14N121W EMBEDDED IN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
120W...POSSIBLY COULD DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT
24-36 HRS...MOVING W 10 MPH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE AUG 07 2007
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SFC LOW PRES 1009 MB AT 14N121W EMBEDDED IN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
120W...POSSIBLY COULD DEVELOP INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT
24-36 HRS...MOVING W 10 MPH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER.
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EP, 91, 200708071200, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1450N, 12200W, , 3, 30, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, LL, I, 5, 2020 /////, , , GOES11, CSC, T, DT = 2.5 BASED ON 0.4 BANDING. NLINEMET= 2.0 PAT=
TAFB have it at T2.0 (DT2.5) at 12Z...
07/0600 UTC 14.1N 120.4W T1.5/1.5 91E -- East Pacific Ocean
SAB have it at T1.5 at 06Z.
TAFB have it at T2.0 (DT2.5) at 12Z...
07/0600 UTC 14.1N 120.4W T1.5/1.5 91E -- East Pacific Ocean
SAB have it at T1.5 at 06Z.
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AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2860
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 AM PDT TUE AUG 07 2007
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 940 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR MANZANILLO...AND IS
MOVING WEST NEAR 10 MPH. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PETERSEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 AM PDT TUE AUG 07 2007
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 940 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR MANZANILLO...AND IS
MOVING WEST NEAR 10 MPH. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PETERSEN
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Re: 91E in EPAC
AXPZ20 KNHC 072031
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE AUG 07 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N123W IS EMBEDDED ON A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
123W S OF 20N. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WNW 10 KT. A LOW CENTER IS
E OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION. A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W...AND FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 124W AND 126W.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Did the forecaster have a dinner date or something? Hmm)
Another TCFA did get put out this afternoon:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN 21 PHNC 071930
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071930Z AUG 07//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 071930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2N 122.3W TO 13.8N 130.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.2N 122.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
THE NEXT SATELLITE INVESTIGATION IS SCHEDULED FOR 081800Z.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 081930Z.
//
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'll have a little bit of commentary soon; just wanted to get this out there now...
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE AUG 07 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N123W IS EMBEDDED ON A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
123W S OF 20N. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WNW 10 KT. A LOW CENTER IS
E OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION. A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W...AND FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 124W AND 126W.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Did the forecaster have a dinner date or something? Hmm)
Another TCFA did get put out this afternoon:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN 21 PHNC 071930
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071930Z AUG 07//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 071930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2N 122.3W TO 13.8N 130.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.2N 122.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
THE NEXT SATELLITE INVESTIGATION IS SCHEDULED FOR 081800Z.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 081930Z.
//
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'll have a little bit of commentary soon; just wanted to get this out there now...
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Re: 91E in EPAC
Yesterday, AnnularCane commented and I (somewhat) concurred that there were two circulations (unfortunately, the two QS passes since my comment yesterday evening were both misses; they didn't go over the area of interest.)
Watching visible imagery today from a couple of different perspectives, it looks like to me that the possible southern circulation that I suggested yesterday has become dominant. If I had to give a center position, I would suggest something just southeast of 13N/123W.
However, the agencies' positions this morning and afternoon were north of 14N; I'm not sure if that was just out of continuity or what. I'm just not seeing anything in that area now. Makes me think that they may reposition it this evening.
Interestingly this morning's UKMET forecast (posted at the end of this) did have a storm forming in a more southerly position. It's been forecasting (and at one point actually analyzed) a storm out of this since Sunday.
The 12Z GFDL and HWRF both forecasted a storm to come out of this as well, however, they are doing so out of the more northerly position.
Maybe I'm just bored and am trying to force something to happen, but I'm going to run with my competing circulation theory and suggest that this invest's woes are near an end at that a tropical depression will be classified when the first visual images come out tomorrow (so either at 11A or 5P advisory).
(Whoops, forgot the UKMET forecast)
Watching visible imagery today from a couple of different perspectives, it looks like to me that the possible southern circulation that I suggested yesterday has become dominant. If I had to give a center position, I would suggest something just southeast of 13N/123W.
However, the agencies' positions this morning and afternoon were north of 14N; I'm not sure if that was just out of continuity or what. I'm just not seeing anything in that area now. Makes me think that they may reposition it this evening.
Interestingly this morning's UKMET forecast (posted at the end of this) did have a storm forming in a more southerly position. It's been forecasting (and at one point actually analyzed) a storm out of this since Sunday.
The 12Z GFDL and HWRF both forecasted a storm to come out of this as well, however, they are doing so out of the more northerly position.
Maybe I'm just bored and am trying to force something to happen, but I'm going to run with my competing circulation theory and suggest that this invest's woes are near an end at that a tropical depression will be classified when the first visual images come out tomorrow (so either at 11A or 5P advisory).
(Whoops, forgot the UKMET forecast)
Code: Select all
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.08.2007
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.1N 125.2W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.08.2007 13.1N 125.2W WEAK
00UTC 09.08.2007 13.2N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2007 11.9N 129.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2007 12.7N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2007 13.6N 134.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2007 13.7N 136.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.08.2007 13.4N 138.
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Re: 91E in EPAC
07/2330 UTC 13.6N 123.3W T1.5/1.5 91E -- East Pacific Ocean
Well, as expected, at least one of the position estimates has been relocated to the south of where it was previously. However, it's not in the position that I was looking at a couple of hours ago, but rather in yet another spot (there still appears to be a circulation in the area I pointed out, however, it would appear to not be a focus for further development). That would suggest that the possible multiple vortex problem hasn't been settled yet.
Well, as expected, at least one of the position estimates has been relocated to the south of where it was previously. However, it's not in the position that I was looking at a couple of hours ago, but rather in yet another spot (there still appears to be a circulation in the area I pointed out, however, it would appear to not be a focus for further development). That would suggest that the possible multiple vortex problem hasn't been settled yet.
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Still no ATCF file update yet, so I can't post TAFB's 00Z fix yet. Here's the link: ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/fix/fep912007.dat
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