Long-Term Model Runs

[Meso]

Okay,it seems there's stacks of posts of the same kinds of things.. Eg: The GFS showing a storm. And the same kind of posts seem to appear in different threads.
So I thought it would be a lot less confusing if there was a single thread where long-shot models can be posted..Sure if there is a topic on a wave that a model is developing then the model runs can be posted in that topic. But this is basically for storms which may end up being phantom storms,or just model runs that shouldn't be taken as seriously as ones that seem very reliable.That way people people can know not to panic until they see the same runs in another thread on an already developing wave or something..

SO TAKE THESE RUNS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT

The GFS

150 hours


384 hours


If a mod feels that this thread is a bad idea,feel free to delete it.

[ncupsscweather]

Yea i just posted on one of the topic's about the GFS developeing a storm and moving it toward Florida at the end of the run. My personal opinion GFS isn't that good with tropical developement or has never been when I was using it to go off of. But maybe this time we will luck up and it be right and get something interesting to watch. But I guess we will have to wait and see.

[Meso]

Here's the 12z run of the CMC from yesterday,also showing a low pressure forming off Africa around the same time as the GFS.

[ncupsscweather]

Like i say it may be something to watch, but i will not put my money on the GFS, expecially that far out..... But i guess it's just a wait and see game... May be it will, May be it want..

[Sanibel]

Good topic, since we have nothing else to look at.

The GFS model delivers a whopper hurricane to the Miami area on August 23rd.

Thank god most models are wrong at that distance. I don't think it is interpreting the dry SAL hammering the ITCZ.

[boca]

The GFS12z is out and at 168 hrs nothing yet.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168m.gif

[Meso]

Nothing yet? there's a low pressure under that ridge Same as previous runs..

[skysummit]

The GFS12z is out and at 168 hrs nothing yet.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168m.gif

What???? Take off your glasses boca.

[caneman]

Here's the 12z run of the CMC from yesterday,also showing a low pressure forming off Africa around the same time as the GFS.

This is an old run but new one is still showing development.

[caneman]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Here ya go

[boca]

Your right I had to put my glasses on, I first looked at it at 4ft away from the monitor. I was making lunch.

[canegrl04]

If NO hurricane forms by the 23rd, GFS will stand for Goofs Fullof **** If one forms at that time but does NOT track toward Florida,give them kudos for that

[Opal storm]

I think the strength of the system is a bit over done, but since we are approaching mid to late August this isn't that unrealistic. Let's see if it persists.

[skysummit]

300 hours... Andrew's cousin still heading toward S. Florida.

[Meso]

[Scorpion]

Skirts up the coast after hitting the Major Antilles hard

[DESTRUCTION5]

Although fun to look at you can pretty much bet $$ on this not happening..

[Brent]

Well I'm not gonna get tied up in the specifics or worrying about a storm in a specific location, but what does concern me is there is some consistency in what appears to be a pretty significant storm somewhere not far from the U.S. coast in 2 weeks. That's always what I look for in the long range like this. It bears watching, and it's entirely realistic considering the calendar.

[Steve]

>>Well I'm not gonna get tied up in the specifics or worrying about a storm in a specific location, but what does concern me is there is some consistency in what appears to be a pretty significant storm somewhere not far from the U.S. coast in 2 weeks. That's always what I look for in the long range like this. It bears watching, and it's entirely realistic considering the calendar.

Agreed. The GFS's bias would be a weaker ridge. Something farther south would seem more realistic (especially considering where east Asia is heading). South Florida maybe moreso than east coast riding up? I'd still be looking for some weaker stuff in the interim though.

Steve

[SouthFloridawx]

Your right I had to put my glasses on, I first looked at it at 4ft away from the monitor. I was making lunch.

Never make lunch while watching a model run. That is the #1 rule of watching model runs...
You should know that Steve, we sat together in the Model Watching class back in 96.