Long-Term Model Runs

[Fego]

Have been a long model run that indeed showed a hurricane development, the right track and the exact touchdown area?
I mean, a model that since the first runs was right on target.

[Blown Away]

At the 384hr, is the low over the NE moving out and the high building in pushing the SFL storm W into gulf or in that situation would the NE low be eroding the high? I know it's not going to happen, just want to understand how to read the map!

[SouthFloridawx]

You would want to look at the 500mb maps previous to the run to see what is dipping down from the north to erode the ridge. I don't believe you would just want to look at the surface loop, cause as I know it, Canes usually ride the 500mb until they find a weakness.

[windstorm99]

Just for fun....

Pic of 06z run @ 384hrs...



Pic of 18z run at 384hrs...

[ronjon]

12Z CMC gets active in the Atlantic Basin - still wants to develop that wave around 40W.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007080712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Scorpion]

CMC is showing the GFS cane in its formative stages

[CoCo2]

A couple of weeks prior to the formation of Katrina in 2005 someone posted a graph/model that showed a whopper of a storm forming and going right through the GOM and up the Mississippi River. I remember it was female name who posted the graph/model and said something to the effect, "God help those in the path if this monster were to form" something like that. After Katrina formed and before we had to evacuate, I kept looking at that post and remembering she was right! Well since, I lost my home and computer in Katrina, I was in Plaquemines Parish where Katrina hit first and worst, I can't find the post. Anyone remember?

[Meso]

[Stormcenter]

A couple of weeks prior to the formation of Katrina in 2005 someone posted a graph/model that showed a whopper of a storm forming and going right through the GOM and up the Mississippi River. I remember it was female name who posted the graph/model and said something to the effect, "God help those in the path if this monster were to form" something like that. After Katrina formed and before we had to evacuate, I kept looking at that post and remembering she was right! Well since, I lost my home and computer in Katrina, I was in Plaquemines Parish where Katrina hit first and worst, I can't find the post. Anyone remember?

I personally don't remember any post like that.

[gatorcane]

Just for fun....

Pic of 06z run @ 384hrs...



Pic of 18z run at 384hrs...

I'm glad its out at 384 hours and the error potential is large.

That is the worst possible scenario for metro SE Florida....

[Bane]

i think the chances of it happening are less than 1%.

[SouthFloridawx]

Just for fun....

Pic of 06z run @ 384hrs...

http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/6100 ... ssssv2.png

Pic of 18z run at 384hrs...

http://img409.imageshack.us/img409/8030/adfghjle4.png

I'm glad its out at 384 hours and the error potential is large.

That is the worst possible scenario for metro SE Florida....

Looking at that wind field, it would be one the the worst possible scenarios for most of the state.

[Scorpion]

I would say that these model runs offer some consistency that something should form in the next few days and generally head west under a ridge. They show that conditions will be favorable for a hurricane to form and threaten the CONUS in two weeks. Other models are latching on to a similar wave forming and heading under a ridge.

[cajungal]

Well, these models may mean nothing this far out. But it is interesting to look at. It is almost mid August, so it is the time of the year to start watching the Atlantic and Caribbean more closely. Things are going to start ramping up really quickly. I been having a nervous feeling in the pit of my stomach similar to when the 2005 season started. This is not the time to get complacent despite a very slow start.

[canegrl04]

Even though this scenario is unlikely,thank God,it would be interesting to keep this post handy just in case it did.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Just for fun....

Pic of 06z run @ 384hrs...

http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/6100 ... ssssv2.png

Pic of 18z run at 384hrs...

http://img409.imageshack.us/img409/8030/adfghjle4.png

Looking at that wind field, it would be one the the worst possible scenarios for most of the state.

Looks like that storm grace from that stupid fiction movie on discover the other day..LOL

[Bane]

I would say that these model runs offer some consistency that something should form in the next few days and generally head west under a ridge. They show that conditions will be favorable for a hurricane to form and threaten the CONUS in two weeks. Other models are latching on to a similar wave forming and heading under a ridge.

thing is, they've been calling for development out there for the last few weeks.

[Scorpion]

I would say that these model runs offer some consistency that something should form in the next few days and generally head west under a ridge. They show that conditions will be favorable for a hurricane to form and threaten the CONUS in two weeks. Other models are latching on to a similar wave forming and heading under a ridge.

thing is, they've been calling for development out there for the last few weeks.

I doubt with this kind of consistency though

[x-y-no]

I would say that these model runs offer some consistency that something should form in the next few days and generally head west under a ridge. They show that conditions will be favorable for a hurricane to form and threaten the CONUS in two weeks. Other models are latching on to a similar wave forming and heading under a ridge.

thing is, they've been calling for development out there for the last few weeks.

Yeah ... the GFS seems generally inclined to spin things up once one gets to the low-resolution part of the run. Doesn't mean it won't happen, of course, but I don't generally get too excited until I'm seeing a cyclone five or six days out rather than eleven or twelve days ...

[gatorcane]

Agreed, the GFS has been correct sometimes even 2 weeks out we shouldn't forget that but there are many more times it has been wrong.

So if I had to bet, I would bet this scenario is not going to happen.