WPAC: Tropical Storm Wutip

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 16.4N 127.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Chacor]

TD
Issued at 12:00 UTC, 7 August 2007
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 17.5N 127.3E POOR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 081200UTC 20.2N 126.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT

[HURAKAN]

Taiwan, keep the umbrella handy and maybe a boat wouldn't be a bad idea to have.

[WindRunner]

Link to initial topic: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96737

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071000Z AUG 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 17.2N 126.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 126.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.9N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.5N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 21.8N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.2N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.8N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 125.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 071000Z AUG 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 071000). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z,
080900Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (PABUK) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

___________________________
This one will be fast and furious!!!

[Chacor]

EDIT: Was about to post the warning but you beat me to it. Permanent link to the track forecast:

[HURAKAN]

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/activeflash/stormloop.htm

Top: Paduk
Bottom: TD #8

[Chacor]

WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (NONAME) HAS CONSOLIDATED
AND STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
B. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (NONAME) IS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES,
AND HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM 07W TO THE NORTHWEST. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM TS 07W HAS INHIBITED
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BUT HAS NOT PREVENTED CONSOLIDA-
TION INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. STRONG CONVERGENT BANDING IS
EVIDENT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WITH
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
ALSO APPEARED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULA-
TION CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE
ISSUANCE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.
B. TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INTERACTION WITH TS 07W TO THE NORTHWEST. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN CHINA MAY
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PREVENTING THE SYSTEM FROM
TAKING A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48, A
SECOND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY WEAKEN THE TROUGH SUFFI-
CIENTLY TO ALLOW THE STORM TO TAKE A NORTHWARD TURN AS
REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. WITH STRONG SURFACE
SUPPORT, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DECREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEARLY
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL. THEREAFTER, THE STORM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY
DISSIPATE OVER LAND.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//

[Typhoon Hunter]

Ouch, watch out Taiwan and southern China. These two storms could really exacerbate current flood problems in China.

[Andrew92]

Prayers will be going to Taiwan for the effects of Pabuk and this depression.

Wutip possibly?

-Andrew92

[HURAKAN]

Paduk08W

[P.K.]

T1.5 at 1800 from RSMC Tokyo on their first sat fix on this.

[P.K.]

Down 2hPa.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 18.6N 126.8E POOR
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 22.8N 124.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[alan1961]

double wammy inside a few days for Taiwan, mother natures certainly dishing them out in the western pacific.

[wxmann_91]

Microwave data and visible sats confirm that the LLC is on the northern edge of the convection. This system is even more disorganized than I originally believed it was. The center is further north than was originally believed... already north of 20N.

[Chacor]

Upgraded to TS Wutip.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Tropical storm Wutip, welcome to the scene! Track takes this towards norther Taiwan then into China.

TS 0707 (WUTIP)
Issued at 00:00 UTC, 8 August 2007RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0707 WUTIP (0707) UPGRADED FROM TD

ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 20.0N 125.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 170NM NORTHWEST

FORECAST
24HF 090000UTC 23.9N 122.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 100000UTC 26.5N 119.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 110000UTC 28.2N 115.8E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

Alan Taiwan was nailed badly in 2005. The east coast town of Hualien got direct hit from massive typhoons Haitang, Talim and Longwang. In addition Matsa brushed the island in August dumping over a metre of rain in northern areas and to add to that typhoon Khanun brushed past on it's way to China. There was also a tropical storm which passed close to the south of the island!!

[Chacor]

WTPQ22 RJTD 080900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0707 WUTIP (0707)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080900UTC 20.9N 123.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 090900UTC 24.7N 121.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 100600UTC 26.7N 118.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 110600UTC 29.6N 117.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[HURAKAN]

Very heavy rainfall falling over extreme southern Taiwan. The same area impacted by Pabuk yesterday.

[Chacor]

What I'm wondering is whether a third (fourth, if you count 06W to be part of it) storm will form from this monsoon trof. That area east of Wutip looks interesting.