Another "cool" front headed south

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Stormcenter
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Another "cool" front headed south

#1 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:21 pm

This is from the NWS discussion out of New Orleans, LA. afternoon discussion. If you read the long term outlook you see we have "another" weak front moving through the deep south next week and establishing a northerly flow over the area. This has been the pattern more so than not throughout the season along with the east coast trough. The fronts will only get stronger and stronger as summer winds down. My point is no matter what the models show and if something does develop it more than likely will have to deal with this pattern at some point if and when it heads toward the U.S. I'm not saying this will be the case the remainder of the season but only that it is just another wall any potential storm will have to climb before it affects the U.S. based on the season so far. I won't even mention the fact that conditions are not ideal at all throughout the Atlantic,Carribean or GOM at the moment for any development. Just my 2 cents.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
311 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2007

. .

.LONG TERM...

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT WESTWARD
SLIGHTLY...AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND STALL OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. WITH THIS FRONT IN PLACE...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
DIVING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...A
HIGHER CHANCE OF POPS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM AS LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE LOWER
70S...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR LOWER POPS AND
WARMER TEMPRATURES. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN A BIT LOWER AS
DEEP NOTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP HEAT INDICES IN CHECK IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ALLOW OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO COOL INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.
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kevin

#2 Postby kevin » Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:27 pm

I am tired of sheathing second story roofs when the heat index is 107 in the shade. =(
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Re: Another "cool" front headed south

#3 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:35 pm

There aint nothing "cool" about this "front" (as temperatures behind it will still be near 100). It is just a weak wind shift and is transient. This won't be sticking around the entire rest of the season either and will likely not equal a huge wall for storms. I am with JB on this one. I think the ridge will become the dominant feature with only weak troughs working in every now and then across the U.S. Also, I beg to differ about conditions not being ideal "at all". SSTs are warm in the western Atlantic, SAL is very low west of 60W and shear has been on the low side in the Caribbean. Also, La Nina is developing. All this spells trouble for the U.S. IMHO. However, I hope that in the end things do find a way to play out in a way such that we are all spared this year from a devastating scenario. We certainly do not need another Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Katrina, Rita or Wilma anytime soon.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#4 Postby skysummit » Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:39 pm

Yea, that last front was a whopper LOL.

Heck....even if these fronts do come down, they could very well bite us in the butt also.
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Re: Another "cool" front headed south

#5 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:40 pm

Honestly, it's not much of a front. Temperatures are STILL progged to be above normal, and then it warms back up again to extreme heat within a couple of days. This is not a preview of Fall of at all, not even close.
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Re: Another "cool" front headed south

#6 Postby Opal storm » Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:41 pm

These "cold fronts" won't necessarily block everything from the U.S , it all has to do with the timing between the storm and the front. Remember we had deep cold fronts come down during Charley and Wilma and were swept across S FL.
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Re:

#7 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:43 pm

skysummit wrote:Yea, that last front was a whopper LOL.

Heck....even if these fronts do come down, they could very well bite us in the butt also.
That is a very good point. Since these fronts are weak, they tend to stall in the GOM and as they sit and wash out they can sometimes spin up systems. If we see storms develop off of these fronts in the GOM, then they would really be doing more harm than good. Any spin up storm in the GOM has a higher likelyhood of landfall than one coming from the east and with all that warm water, these could easily become strong systems given enough time.

BTW - JB says to watch the GOM next week as this low-level trough dips south (as well as an area just off the FL coast) for possible situational development as the pressures lower in the Gulf while they rise under the ridge to the north. he says there is nothing concrete, but that similar situations in the past have produced storms.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Tue Aug 07, 2007 5:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#8 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:45 pm

Another week of rain? Its getting old. I like the rain, but 4-8" is overdoing it. I fear the time when a TC comes along.
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#9 Postby storms in NC » Tue Aug 07, 2007 5:47 pm

There has been cool fronts after cool fronts all summer so far. This is nothing new. That is what I was talking about weather patterns changes. It don't look like it is going to change much if any. Look this is Aug guys and there is nothing on the table. The first 2 storms should not had been named. JMO
I think it will be late Aug or early Sept for us to see any thing on the table here.Then it would only be home grown storms. As for the CV storms not going to happen this year.JIMO
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Re: Another "cool" front headed south

#10 Postby Bane » Tue Aug 07, 2007 6:43 pm

i'll have to disagree with you as to whether the first two storms should have been named. they met criteria so they were named.
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Re: Another "cool" front headed south

#11 Postby MGC » Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:01 pm

As I recall back in 2004 around August 13, a strong cold front swept through the south. We had five consective days of record cold here on the Mississippi Gulf Coast, the longest streak on record. We got down into the upper 50's. That same front pushed Hurricane Charley into Punta Gorda instead of Tampa. So, it is not unusual for fronts to affect the south this time of the year, nor will it prevent a major hurricane from striking somewhere along the gulf coast......MGC
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