The Art of Forecasting

[Fego]

I'm bored (the Atlantic is so quiet). So I decided to spend some time searching and reading. Then, I found this article about forecasting. It was published in 1960, the year I was born. Hope you like it.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... sglobe.gif

[Berwick Bay]

I really like that quote from the past "more of an art, than a science". I enjoy trying to forecast hurricane movement, thus my "Berwick Model". But its been two years now. (Not much call for it last year, with all of the major storms being well out to sea). Hope to bring it out of mothballs this year. Highlights of the model would be '05 when I correctly forecast the WSW move by Katrina over S Fl, '04 three days before landfall forecasting Jeanne to come ashore in the same place as Frances. Many failures too, but hoping for another chance.

[Derek Ortt]

what exactly is the "Berwick Model" and what methods does it use?

[Berwick Bay]

The "Berwick Model" is simply my own prediction or forecast of where a given storm is likely to go. Similar to a forecast track given by one of the computer models employed by the NHC. The term "Berwick Model" was given to my predictions by others (after some initial successes). I liked the term and still use it. As for what I use, I basically start with intialization by the NHC (Depression status), check what established models are saying, and look for myself in terms of WV Loops of upper air patterns and upper level pressure readings, also taking into account climatology at the time of the storms appearance. Its not much more than that. Remember, the title of this thread referred to the "art of forecasting". The building high off of Fl in '05 reminded me of Betsy in '65 and I took a shot that Katrina might take a WSW dip (which it did). In '04 WV Loops clearly showed a trough which was lagging behind or late in coming in, which was forecast to keep Jeanne offshore. Therefore I forecast that Jeanne would make a Fl landfall (which it did, the trough eventually turning in as it reached the Gulf of Mexico). For Rita, the important thing was climatology. It would have been extremely rare for a late Sept storm to traverse the entire length of the Gulf of Mexico and then strike the central to upper Texas coast (but that was the NHC forecast). I therefore forecast a turn into SW La. (which is basically what happened--landfall at the La-Tex border). Of course I've had many failures, but these were a few successes that were remembered by others who called my forecasts "Berwick Models".

[benny]

I'm bored (the Atlantic is so quiet). So I decided to spend some time searching and reading. Then, I found this article about forecasting. It was published in 1960, the year I was born. Hope you like it.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... sglobe.gif

This is a nice piece of historical work, but it is not how hurricanes are forecast now. These days it is all numerical weather prediction, and the science far outweighs the art.

[Derek Ortt]

Don't call it a model... as it is NOT a model. A model is not one's own intuition, but instead a solution derived from mathematical equations

[Fego]

We are talking about 47 years of technology development. Yes, we can track a tropical wave that is far away in Africa, we have those satellites, computer models, the hurricane hunters, etcetera, but still we can not say for sure where a tropical cyclone will go and how strong it will be. Man and his technology versus mother nature, isn't exciting?

[Berwick Bay]

Derek said this about the "Berwick Model".
Don't call it a model... as it is NOT a model. A model is not one's own intuition, but instead a solution derived from mathematical equations
____________________________________________________
Hey Derek, I'll post the disclaimer and call it whatever I choose to call it!

[Derek Ortt]

go ahead and mislead people

[Berwick Bay]

Derek said
go ahead and mislead people
___________________________________________
Derek, I think people can read the disclaimer for themselves.

[hcane27]

Not that I am trying to get in the middle of an argument, but there are quite a few visitors to this forum who when they see the term "model" attached to anything, will assume that there is some measure of scientific basis and mathematical reasoning involved. I have had the very experience with that on my own site. Labels are highly suggestive, and no number of disclaimers, whether in color or not, seem to sway the thought patterns of the less learned. That is why I would suggest that maybe a better term to use would be the "Berwick Method" ... again, not trying to put words in your mouth or monikers to your forecasts.

[cheezyWXguy]

Derek said
go ahead and mislead people
___________________________________________
Derek, I think people can read the disclaimer for themselves.

I think Derek is right on this part, sorry Berwick, and also people tend to read over things like disclaimers, especially new people, and some who only read what they feel like instead of the whole thing...and im sure there are other terms you could use

[Berwick Bay]

Well hcane 27, since you suggested it, I will consider it. Mind you I said consider it! I'll have to think about it. I really do believe that the disclaimer speaks for itself "not backed by any meterological organization" or some such wording. Anyway your polite request means a lot more to me than any demand from Derek Ortt.

[mf_dolphin]

Well how about a demand from one of the site owners? The term model has specific connotations when used in this forum and I will not have it misused. As to the disclaimer, we have a standard disclaimer that will be used for all amateur forecasts. End of discussion......

[Berwick Bay]

Obviously, anything you say MF. I wasn't about to accept a demand from Mr. Ortt.

[Ed Mahmoud]

"The Officially Unofficial Berwick Cyclone Forecast" sounds good without actually promising more than it delivers.



Just a suggestion.

[Fego]

Well... what about the old newspaper article about forecasting?

[Ed Mahmoud]

A bit light on the details, even for a 1960 article. But comparing a hurricane to a broken field runner, a football reference, reminds me of how Joe Bastardi compares a tropical wave approaching a ULL as a running back approaching an 8 man line. The line probably takes it out, but if it gets through, it could go all the way for a touchdown.

[hcane27]

Well, as a reply to the original .... the paragraph stating that the ability to produce a forecast agreed upon by forecasters in all regions is in the far distant future I believe to not be accurate any longer. It seems as though we have at least arrived at the point in this "art/science" that most of the forecast for a hurricane's movement is pretty well agreed upon by all of the affected agencies .... now as to intensity and such ... not so much.
But, I will also state that I believe that there is still some "art" remaining ... especially when it comes to "reading" the various "model" output ...... everyone sees subtle differences from the same painting so to speak ...