Next area to watch? in Western Atlantic

[Hyperstorm]

I think our next system to watch is the area of disturbed weather to the north of Puerto Rico.

Satellite images suggest that there is a trough-like feature developing scattered thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not currently prohibitive for some persistence and are forecast to relax somewhat over the next couple of days. If that happens, I believe there is potential for a surface low to develop. Of course, that can take several days. There is nothing to be concerned about at this time, but in the past systems have developed similarly. Case in point, its current stage reminds me somewhat of pre-Humberto in 2001. Here's a simple image depicting the area I'm talking about:



Interesting that so far this year we've seen more interesting systems in the subtropics than in the deep tropics. That strikes me as odd since this is not the norm for a non-El Nino year. We'll see what happens after August 20th...

[Aric Dunn]

possibly something slowly but dont get your hopes up the tropical wave that is passing the area is moving west but just watch it ... i guess

[Cyclone1]

Hey guys, you know what? I think this may be (at least partly) whats left of that low off Carolina, formerly the trough in the Gulf a few days ago. Evidence? Trough that spawned the blob in the GOM took the low out to sea off the Carolina coast. Clockwise motion of that high brought it back. Looks like that high isn't gonna let it slip out to sea soon either.

I could be completley incorrect about the previous life of this storm.

[Sanibel]

Edited: What I wrote was wrong.

Since then I see something I missed last night.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah, I was thinking that convection would probably pick up. You can take a look at why I thought that in the thread I posted a link for below.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96604

[SouthFloridawx]

I wouldn't count out the surface trough at 68W. As long as convection keeps firing due, to the interaction of the two. The Upper Low according to, GFS is going to move westward towards the Bahamas and Florida.

AN UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS DIPS S TO
OVER HISPANIOLA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 13N64W ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE SW ATLC
NEAR 23N65W PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
INCLUDING THE N WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

[Hyperstorm]

I see that this morning the system has generated convection southwest of where it was last night. That does not bode well because the shear is higher the further south it gets. Regardless, it's all moving westward and I'll be looking at it for any signs of persistence.

Nothing imminent in the Atlantic waters on August 8th...

[harmclan]

Yea, nothing is happening at the surface here. Dry stable air pretty much covers most of the Atlantic, suppressing convection with the waves. Add the fact that the surface ridge extending from the eastern Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico is blocking the waves traversing through the Caribbean from moving north (running them through Central America) it's shaping up to be a quiet week. Viewing the GFS long range, looks like the ridge will begin to recede by Monday.

http://www.ustropics.net

[Sanibel]

I give Hyperstorm credit. This morning I think I see what could be a surface spiral struggling in that weak elongated wave. It's barely visible on the Caribbean visible loop. GHCC has it in better focus but it is hard to see in a still shot. It is sheared from the WNW and moving NW.

[SouthFloridawx]

I give Hyperstorm credit. This morning I think I see what could be a surface spiral struggling in that weak elongated wave. It's barely visible on the Caribbean visible loop. GHCC has it in better focus but it is hard to see in a still shot. It is sheared from the WNW and moving NW.

You can give him credit, but I talked about it a few days ago.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I give Hyperstorm credit. This morning I think I see what could be a surface spiral struggling in that weak elongated wave. It's barely visible on the Caribbean visible loop. GHCC has it in better focus but it is hard to see in a still shot. It is sheared from the WNW and moving NW.

You can give him credit, but I talked about it a few days ago.

You did and it had a potent wave slaming into FL....

[Sanibel]

Yes, I remember. I thought "no way" and didn't comment.


I wish I had the computer sophistication to cut an image from GHCC and highlight the spiral I see today so you can see exactly what I'm talking about.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yes, I remember. I thought "no way" and didn't comment.
I wish I had the computer sophistication to cut an image from GHCC and highlight the spiral I see today so you can see exactly what I'm talking about.

Ok well lets see if we can identify the area you are talking about, so I can loop it.

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't know if this might help Sanibel, but here is the GOES Puerto Rico Imagery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

I don't know if this might help Sanibel, but here is the GOES Puerto Rico Imagery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr.html

This area really grabs my attention today...And its really close to home..we could have a little something here

[Sanibel]

What I thought I saw was under that dot of convection at 22.3N-69W But on close-up it isn't there so much. Oh well, there's nothing else to watch today. Too much shear on that weak wave.

[Sanibel]

For a good example of shear look at the tops of these thunderheads being ripped off on Miami radar:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[SouthFloridawx]

Yep, a big upper level trough in the Western and Central Atlantic.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[windstorm99]

The quiet times continue across the atlantic basin and should remain that way through mid next week.Adrian