Long-Term Model Runs

[Scorpion]

That looks like a pretty powerful hurricane too...

[miamicanes177]

Let's call this one a questionable run. Two hurricanes undergoing Fujiwhara interaction in the GULF? That was would be way cool, but extremely unlikey.

then they could merge and become the scifi supercane

[Cyclone1]

Let's call this one a questionable run. Two hurricanes undergoing Fujiwhara interaction in the GULF? That was would be way cool, but extremely unlikey.

then they could merge and become the scifi supercane

... that would eventually make its way up to the Canada, drifting over New York as the worlds worst blizzard, burrying the northern hemisphere in half an acre of snow. And Britney Spears becomes a school teacher.

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL...

Never heard of this model...High over us (BMT, PA, ORG-TX) keeps us safe for next 2 weeks.

[Meso]

Hah oh my @ the CMC... Well it may not be true,all these runs showing activity may well be a sign things are going to heat up very soon.

[Sjones]

I thought the high over us in Southeast Texas was to move out this weekend??

[Wx_Warrior]

From my brother:

High pressure here for next 2 weeks keeps everything away. But who knows?

[rainman31]

Interesting... the CMC shows two storms in the GOM at the same time

Has there ever been two hurricanes in the gulf at the same time?

[cycloneye]

Wow, 12Z CMC goes bananas with explosive GOM development.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007080812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Wake me up when CMC has the same scenario in the 12z run three days from now.

[SouthFloridawx]

Wow, 12Z CMC goes bananas with explosive GOM development.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007080812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Wake me up when CMC has the same scenario in the 12z run three days from now.

Yep, that is about as bananas as you get.

[Brent]

Interesting... the CMC shows two storms in the GOM at the same time

Has there ever been two hurricanes in the gulf at the same time?

I don't believe so and I doubt it could happen.

Now I guess two weak storms on opposite sides(like one near TX and one near FL) could potentially happen but I can't see two big storms at one time.

[Janie2006]

The dominant high pressure system currently centered over northern MS/AL will probably drift to the west over the next few days....I don't see it hanging out for 2 weeks. Along the coast we're on the southern edge of the high, so we're getting the occasional shower to help us.

[weatherman21]

I just observed the 12Z GFS run which I see is continuing to show the wave track offshore the west African coast by this Saturday; although, the GFS is now indicating the possible cyclone to track well south of the United States and through the Carribean Sea into the Yucatan. I suppose the GFS is continuing to detect a possible cyclone, but the model is having a difficult time predicting the long-term scenerio. However, I see that the GFS is remaining very consistant with a west/wnw track through the southern Atlantic from Saturday through next Thursday (8/16) where the model places the storm just to the east of the Lesser Antilles. I was recently able to observe an archive NAM model run based upon Hurricane Katrina and found that by utilizing certian model products, I can create an outline of a cyclone, but in order to recieve the best resolution, I had to set the contour interval very tight in the program I use, the Integrated Data Viewer. Taking the results from the Hurricane Katrina study into consideration, I have experimented with the wave which the GFS brings off the coast of Africa Saturday and by using the Precipitable Water product (or Water Vapor), I was able to outline the structure well, but you will notice in the screen captures below that I set the contour intervals very tight to recieve a good outline of the storm. It will be interesting to see whether the GFS is actually correct in its prediction for the short term or if the model comes up wrong. The screen captures from the 12Z (8am) GFS run from this morning are below and the wind vectors are set at 500 Pa:

Forecast for 8/11 at 12Z; The wave is seen emerging off the west coast of Africa on the bottom-right hand portion of this screen capture:


Forecast for 8/13 at 12Z:


Forecast for 8/14 at 21Z:


Forecast for 8/16 at 0Z:

[rainman31]

very cool graphic

[skysummit]

Well, the 18z is rolling out right now, and it's still there.

[SouthFloridawx]

Those graphics are really cool, thanks for sharing with us. Please feel free to do so in the future.

[skysummit]

18z GFS tightening it up at 138 hours:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138m.gif

[Meso]

[Scorpion]

Very persistant about getting a TC close to the CONUS the past several runs

[cheezyWXguy]

18z GFS tightening it up at 138 hours:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138m.gif

Wow...each run makes it even stronger also, I noticed something...it may not necessarily be the same system as the gulf system the CMC develops, but in youre link, notice the 1011mb low right on the east coast of the yucatan..could be just a spurious low, but it could also be a hint by the GFS of the gulf low developed by the NAM, CMC, and ECM