System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[Dean4Storms]

develop

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Wx_Warrior]

See: thread All Long-Term Model Runs

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, if a single wave spawns two TCs that Fujiwara around each other, in the Gulf, than I'm the King of Sweden.

[Cyclone1]

CMC = Crazy Model on Crack. We'll see if this pans out.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The direction and strength of that is very scary! Hopefully the CMC is wrong (like it usually tends to be).

[Dean4Storms]

I didn't see the model thread, but something this unusual may need its separate thread. Mods can delete if they want too.

[Steve]

Interesting how it picks up very similar tracks from the last two pacific storms as per the long term model thread.

hmmmm.

Steve

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to me that it would have to form from the TW now in the eastern Carib. if it came to fruition, anyone disagree?

[southerngale]

I didn't see the model thread, but something this unusual may need its separate thread. Mods can delete if they want too.

Nah, it's fine.

The way I look at it... if anyone thinks something that is posted in those longer threads (and I am pretty sure that other thread will get much larger), warrants its own thread, go for it.

[cycloneye]

Yes,we promote that.If possible a thread for a distint model is good for the forum.Now,if someone makes another thread about CMC then that is a repetition of the same theme and model which is locked.

[x-y-no]

Well, if a single wave spawns two TCs that Fujiwara around each other, in the Gulf, than I'm the King of Sweden.

You're the king of Sweden? So please to have you on our site, your highness!

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB refers to the CMC as a "crazy uncle" that most of the time is wrong, but on occassion can be right. In this case he thinks the model shows us two things...

-The GOM will be primed for possible situational development in the coming week.

-The ridge will keep systems from heading too far north and will instead steer them west (toward the western GOM).

[southerngale]

JB refers to the CMC as a "crazy uncle" that most of the time is wrong, but on occassion can be right. In this case he thinks the model shows us two things...

-The GOM will be primed for possible situational development in the coming week.

-The ridge will keep systems from heading too far north and will instead steer them west (toward the western GOM).

Although he could be right, I think I recall something similar last year, that never came to fruition, so no worries yet.

With Rita fresh on my mind, I am trying to eat more out of my freezers, keep up with laundry, etc. because you never know when you'll be faced with having to evacuate within a few days. ugh.

[clfenwi]

Looks to me that it would have to form from the TW now in the eastern Carib. if it came to fruition, anyone disagree?

There's apparently a little bit of an argument at TPC over whether to call it a tropical wave or a trough... but yes, the CMC is forming this out of what's around Hispanola at the moment. Relevent tidbits of the afternoon TWD:


...THE TROUGHING FURTHER E MOVING THROUGH HISPANIOLA AND THE E/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN IS A MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE AT THE MOMENT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME DEBATE ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS FEATURE IS A
TROPICAL WAVE BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO ANALYZE IT AS A TROUGH AT
THE MOMENT...AS IT IS VERY BLURRY IF ONE CAN TRACE THIS FEATURE
BACK TO AFRICA. MORE ON THIS FEATURE IS DISCUSSED IN THE CARIB
SECTION BELOW.

...

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN CONTINUES
TO BE THE INVERTED TROUGHING ALONG 69/70W THAT EXTENDS N THROUGH
HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE ATLC. THIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 13N BETWEEN 65W-71W.
THE GFS MODEL SPREADS THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE W/NW THROUGH
HISPANIOLA...ERN CUBA...THE SE BAHAMAS AND JAMAICA THROUGH THU
NIGHT. THE MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE REST
OF CUBA...THE WRN BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA FRI THRU SUN.

[Wx_Warrior]

Football is cranking up around these parts...Don't need any more hurdles!

[skysummit]

Football is cranking up around these parts...Don't need any more hurdles!

Wow...just around your parts? I wonder when it'll get cranked up here and the rest of the nation?

[Wx_Warrior]

Football is king in Texas.....Well, high school that is!

[ronjon]

HPC thinks things might get going in the GOM. Probably based on the Euro.

WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
YUCATAN AREA FOR NEXT SUN-MON DAYS 6-7. PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSIONS FROM TPC.

[Cyclone1]

Whoooa.

[Steve]

>>-The ridge will keep systems from heading too far north and will instead steer them west (toward the western GOM).

If you do a search for me and "Brownsville", I did a post a while back about one of the old ladies I work with. She paid $75 to a private psychic for some advice, and the discussion turned to hurricanes. The psychic insisted that there would be some trying times in Louisiana this season and that we'd still have to get through some storms, but that she was looking at Brownsville this year. I laughed about it, but if Brownsville ends up getting destroyed or badly damaged this year, I think her half hour price is going to go up. I'll even get her name and number for those of you into that kind of thing.

Steve