91E in EPAC

[clfenwi]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 080105
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0105 UTC WED AUG 8 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912007) 20070808 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070808  0000   070808  1200   070809  0000   070809  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.9N 123.4W   13.9N 125.3W   13.8N 127.1W   13.6N 128.8W
BAMD    13.9N 123.4W   14.1N 125.5W   14.0N 127.8W   13.8N 130.0W
BAMM    13.9N 123.4W   13.9N 125.5W   13.7N 127.6W   13.4N 129.6W
LBAR    13.9N 123.4W   14.0N 125.6W   14.5N 128.3W   14.7N 131.1W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          44KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070810  0000   070811  0000   070812  0000   070813  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.9N 130.7W   14.4N 134.7W   14.9N 139.1W   15.7N 144.1W
BAMD    13.7N 132.5W   13.4N 137.5W   13.6N 142.5W   14.4N 146.7W
BAMM    13.2N 131.9W   13.2N 136.3W   13.2N 140.6W   14.2N 144.5W
LBAR    15.5N 134.0W   17.7N 139.6W   19.4N 144.1W   20.9N 147.9W
SHIP        47KTS          48KTS          47KTS          33KTS
DSHP        47KTS          48KTS          47KTS          33KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.9N LONCUR = 123.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  13.9N LONM12 = 121.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  13.8N LONM24 = 119.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[clfenwi]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 08 2007

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N123W IS EMBEDDED ON A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
123W S OF 20N. THIS LOW HAS BEEN PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM OF
14N124W.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Convection did get sparse earlier this evening, however, it has had a decent burst of convection in the past couple of hours.

[HURAKAN]

91E continues to struggle.

[Chacor]

08/1200 UTC 13.8N 124.5W T1.0/1.5 91E -- East Pacific Ocean

TAFB are T1.5/1.5.

[clfenwi]

It keeps on keeping on




08/1800 UTC 13.7N 126.1W T2.0/2.0 91E -- East Pacific Ocean

[clfenwi]

Models and NRL back-up page indicate that TD 9-E has formed.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1850 UTC WED AUG 8 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (EP092007) 20070808 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070808  1800   070809  0600   070809  1800   070810  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.7N 126.0W   13.7N 127.9W   13.8N 129.8W   14.2N 131.9W
BAMD    13.7N 126.0W   13.9N 128.3W   14.2N 130.6W   14.4N 133.0W
BAMM    13.7N 126.0W   13.9N 128.1W   14.0N 130.2W   14.2N 132.4W
LBAR    13.7N 126.0W   13.9N 128.1W   14.4N 130.9W   15.1N 133.7W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          37KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          37KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070810  1800   070811  1800   070812  1800   070813  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.7N 134.0W   15.6N 138.4W   16.1N 143.0W   17.3N 147.6W
BAMD    14.8N 135.4W   15.7N 140.0W   16.5N 144.1W   17.8N 147.0W
BAMM    14.7N 134.7W   15.5N 138.9W   16.4N 143.1W   17.7N 146.4W
LBAR    16.0N 136.5W   17.9N 141.7W   18.7N 145.6W   18.7N 148.5W
SHIP        41KTS          48KTS          50KTS          50KTS
DSHP        41KTS          48KTS          50KTS          50KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.7N LONCUR = 126.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  13.8N LONM12 = 124.2W DIRM12 = 263DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  13.9N LONM24 = 122.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[Cyclenall]

Models and NRL back-up page indicate that TD 9-E has formed.

Yeah, I had a feeling that this thing became a depression a hour ago. The numbers support it as well.

The GFDL runs continue showing at least a category 2 hurricane and the last run had it towards Hawaii near that strength. I think it's been showing this almost every time so I'd watch this. The first US threat?

[HurricaneRobert]

The other day GFDL was showing just Cat 1, but it's been increasing it's predicted strength and bringing it closer to Hawaii. 91E is getting scary.

[clfenwi]

If you back a few days, you can find another point where the GFDL was forecasting a significant hurricane out of this.

I find the HWRF forecast quite a bit more believable than the GFDL

[clfenwi]

Now in the active storms forum: TD 9-E

[cycloneye]

Now in the active storms forum: TD 9-E

Yes.And this thread is now locked as all the information about this new depression is being posted in the active storms forum.