System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[Aric Dunn]

Well, if a single wave spawns two TCs that Fujiwara around each other, in the Gulf, than I'm the King of Sweden.

I have never seen a model .. forecast something like that ever .. A little strange

[Wx_Warrior]

Well...

[KWT]

I'd guess both the CMC and the ECM develop the same system however where they differ is the CMC forms another system first which heads ESE as the new ssytem forms dragging it towards the NW while the ECM doesn't form the first system but does the second running it into the Yucatan.

As for the first system, looks like the CMC forms it from the trough/wave currently in E/C Caribbean and so shouldn't be totally dismissed as its not forming a phantom area of convection.

[windstorm99]

CMC....With these ridiculous storms.Watch out for that cat7 doing 3 loops in the atlantic and then moving through florida and growing to a 350mph hurricane in the gulf.

[Cyclenall]

That track of the "major GOM hurricane" is very strange. It takes a track similar to Dennis and Charley and then all of a sudden gets pushed west after going north. A track like that would be almost new.

[Steve]

Oh yeah, a coworker said she paid $75 for a half hour with a psychic who told her we'd have to contend with a few more storms in this oceanic warming cycle and some trying times, but her target for 2007 is Brownsville, TX.

Sorry. It was on a different message board from 5/8/7 at 09:16am CDT.



Steve

[ronjon]

Obviously the double cyclonic signature of the CMC is out to lunch but is the model on to something? The ECMWF has now for two runs (00Z and 12Z) depicted western caribbean development spreading slowly over to the BOC from 6 days out to 10 days out. There is a convective flareup with the tropical wave/trough near Hispanola near 65W. We know that the oceanic heat content and tropical cyclone potential are very high in the western caribbean and that the long-range European model shows low shear over the western caribbean the next week.

[Steve]

>>That track of the "major GOM hurricane" is very strange. It takes a track similar to Dennis and Charley and then all of a sudden gets pushed west after going north. A track like that would be almost new.

There was some storm (2003????) that headed straight west across the Gulf - might even have crossed over from the Atlantic. It passed 200 miles south of here, and it was just hot and cloudless without any other indication of a storm in the neighborhood. Also, Eduard/Fay(e) which became kind of one storm with embedded energy did something like that. I was standing outside in a rainband when BOOM, it doubled. I was able to trace back the origins to the storm that got eaten.

Hmmm. Maybe the 2003 storm was Erica?

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

And Eduard/Fay was 2002

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Steve

[Sambucol]

IF this storm comes to fruition, just how major would this hurricane be?

signed,
rita evacuee

[Aric Dunn]

One thing is for sure .. the trade winds( low level shear) in the carrib is much lower than when 99L came through so if we get some organized convection it wont be as hard to close off a low. Just looking at some things .. im not entirely sure how its supposed to move north like that unless there is a fujiwara effect because the steering currents are not going to allow that kind of a north motion. i dont see any troughs or anything that would cause it to do that. So something may come from this wave/trough near DR, the western carrib shear is 5kts or so and the only thing thats missing is deep convection


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-rgb.html

[canegrl04]

Although its always wise to be ready for anything that spins up near the US,I'll believe this one when it actually starts happening. Theres been too many wolf cries this season from the models

[JonathanBelles]

When is that cold front supposed to come down?

[Aric Dunn]

I would also watch north of DR for something moving into the gulf in a few days from the same wave.

[Aric Dunn]

When is that cold front supposed to come down?

i dont see anything that would even remotely make it far enough down to turn it north.. the trough is forecast to stay near the mid atlantic not over the south central US

[Extremeweatherguy]

I believe (but may be wrong) that the low-level trough (very weak front) is actually forecast to make it to the GOM where there may then be a trough split that would enhance the chances of something forming in that region under the ridge to the north. I don't see anything that develops heading N or NE though unless it forms east of Florida.

[wxman57]

While the Canadian model performs quite poorly in that it predicts every thunderstorm over the tropics to become a hurricane, I do see a pattern change in the works. High pressure has built over the central to east U.S.. Hurricanes "like" to develop south of such ridges, like in the NW Caribbean. A quite innocuous wave could move across the Caribbean over the coming week and blow up in the NW Caribbean. Just something to be alert for. I'll be more concerned when the ECMWF starts forecasting significant development, though (not just generally lower pressure down there). I'm sure it won't be long before the tropics are switched "on".

[SouthFloridawx]

When is that cold front supposed to come down?

i dont see anything that would even remotely make it far enough down to turn it north.. the trough is forecast to stay near the mid atlantic not over the south central US

Actually looking at the forecast, @ day 3 there is a front hanging out down south, not just the southeast.

[Aric Dunn]

Mid level steering



not much room to move north .. it would have to start sometime tomorrow for the cmc to be even remotely right.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think it is the "trof" on this graphic (south of FL) that will be where the possible action spawns from:


^^72 hours out^^

[SouthFloridawx]

12Z NAM actually showing a little, something...