GFS continues to develop African wave

[Vortex]

12z rolling out...

H-78
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

[ncupsscweather]

Now lets just see if they will actually happen.... GFS isn't the best model for watching tropical developement in my opinion.

[Derek Ortt]

I am discounting it.

I mentioned in passing yesterday at the HRD breifing no TC formation for 14 days... we are now down to 13, lol

Even if this does come to pass, the season could still be very active. It would be following a similar pattern of 1996, 1998, and 1999 of some early seaosn activity (except for 1998), a very quiet first 2/3 of August, followed by a significant uptick in activity

[jasons2k]

I am discounting it.

I mentioned in passing yesterday at the HRD breifing no TC formation for 14 days... we are now down to 13, lol

By saying that, you realize you just put a Hex on the whole basin, right?

[SouthFloridawx]

I am discounting it.
I mentioned in passing yesterday at the HRD breifing no TC formation for 14 days... we are now down to 13, lol
Even if this does come to pass, the season could still be very active. It would be following a similar pattern of 1996, 1998, and 1999 of some early seaosn activity (except for 1998), a very quiet first 2/3 of August, followed by a significant uptick in activity

Well, that being said... this system, the ones being showed by the models, is heading towards the uptick 1/3 of August. Secondly, why do we need another thread for something that is already being discussed in a thread, all long term model thread.

[HurricaneRobert]

What is this one showing up in a week?

[Meso]

yeah this is kind of confusing... I thought the long range model threat would stop this :S But now I dont know where to paste what anymore... again. Since for the time being it was mainly this that was being discussed in the other one :S

[cycloneye]

18z GFS Loop



Enjoy the 8/8/07 18z GFS loop.

[cheezyWXguy]

The 18z brings the low off africa in exactly 2 days...well see what happens, wont be long now

[Blown Away]

I am discounting it.

I mentioned in passing yesterday at the HRD breifing no TC formation for 14 days... we are now down to 13, lol

Even if this does come to pass, the season could still be very active. It would be following a similar pattern of 1996, 1998, and 1999 of some early seaosn activity (except for 1998), a very quiet first 2/3 of August, followed by a significant uptick in activity

If that is the case, the Carolinas will be more of a target. Seemed to be a persistent EC trough those years.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS Loop



Enjoy the 8/8/07 18z GFS loop.

Just clips Hebert Box 20N/60W, looks like a typical Carolinas track.

[Weatherfreak14]

well im guessin this is the official thread for the system the GFS has deemed to be a threat to the US in two weeks, lets see if the models play out correctly, most likely no but something to watch. http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,a=0,sa=9,pr=MPEF,f=1,c=MPE,se=0,n=9,d=1,v=400,pp=0,t=200708090100#controls I think the very next wave to come off the cost, i think this is the wave the model has forming into a system.

[windstorm99]

In my opinion this 16 day forcast from the GFS is useless and should really be discounted.Any model that far out in time is at a very low skill level and is likely to be wrong.Adrian

[canegrl04]

Long range models

[Scorpion]

In my opinion this 16 day forcast from the GFS is useless and should really be discounted.Any model that far out in time is at a very low skill level and is likely to be wrong.Adrian

Nobody is taking the final solution with any seriousness, however it has been showing a hurricane traversing the Atlantic for the past several runs, and development should begin in a few days of this feature

[windstorm99]

In my opinion this 16 day forcast from the GFS is useless and should really be discounted.Any model that far out in time is at a very low skill level and is likely to be wrong.Adrian

Nobody is taking the final solution with any seriousness, however it has been showing a hurricane traversing the Atlantic for the past several runs, and development should begin in a few days of this feature

Lets see according to the GFS we should have been hit about by 5 times already from a CAT 3 into south florida to 3-4 landfalls of a hugo type system in the carolina's.

[cheezyWXguy]

In my opinion this 16 day forcast from the GFS is useless and should really be discounted.Any model that far out in time is at a very low skill level and is likely to be wrong.Adrian

Nobody is taking the final solution with any seriousness, however it has been showing a hurricane traversing the Atlantic for the past several runs, and development should begin in a few days of this feature

Lets see according to the GFS we should have been hit about by 5 times already from a CAT 3 into south florida to 3-4 landfalls of a hugo type system in the carolina's.

Actually im pretty sure it has only shown this scenario in long-range once before, and that was with the wave that 99L came from...but the GFS shows this coming offshore of africa within 48-60 hours from now...what happens after that is still iffy, but if the low does develop, and the ridge is as strong as the GFS predicts it, it would not be unlikely to have this play out, as it has happened before

[jimvb]

gulp.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

that would not be a good scenario...luckily
384 hr is not too accurate.

[jimvb]

348 hr, which is where this disaster for Virginia and North Carolina comes from, is probably not that accurate either. What seems to be developing is some storm is going to come off the Africa coast in two or three days, cross the Atlantic, and do something in the western Atlantic. Some model runs show a smash in Virginia, as I have illustrated; one shows an equally devastating rerun of Andrew on Miami, some have it go fish just before reaching the coast, and one had it go so far south that it strikes Central America and southern Mexico. But it seems to persist from run to run, so something is coming up. We don't know what yet.