System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[SouthFloridawx]

I think it is the "trof" on this graphic (south of FL) that will be where the possible action spawns from:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif
^^72 hours out^^

That is quite a few waves in the Caribbean in the next 72 Hours.

Wonder if anything will come to fruition.

[wxman57]

12Z NAM actually showing a little, something...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

In a battle between the worst models to look at for potential tropical development and movement, the NAM and Canadian are neck-and-neck.

[Cyclenall]

>>That track of the "major GOM hurricane" is very strange. It takes a track similar to Dennis and Charley and then all of a sudden gets pushed west after going north. A track like that would be almost new.

There was some storm (2003????) that headed straight west across the Gulf - might even have crossed over from the Atlantic. It passed 200 miles south of here, and it was just hot and cloudless without any other indication of a storm in the neighborhood. Also, Eduard/Fay(e) which became kind of one storm with embedded energy did something like that. I was standing outside in a rainband when BOOM, it doubled. I was able to trace back the origins to the storm that got eaten.

Hmmm. Maybe the 2003 storm was Erica?

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

And Eduard/Fay was 2002

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Steve

No, all those storms are just west through the GOM. I was talking about the first part of the track where it goes north and then due west suddenly. The closest track to that would be Hurricane Isidore from 2002.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro 168 hours is the only development i see from it

[Steve]

>>No, all those storms are just west through the GOM. I was talking about the first part of the track where it goes north and then due west suddenly. The closest track to that would be Hurricane Isidore from 2002.

I saw what you said. I wasn't quantifying a going north then turning due west scenario (which does happen in the Atlantic FWIW). I was just using some due west storms from recent memory which people on here said, "that'll never verify" or "I've never seen a track like that." IMHO, the steering currents would be straight out of the east in several different levels around the time of CMC mystery blowup.

But I do concede your point in the Gulf (haven't researched enough years' tracks to know if any have done that before).

Steve

[Aric Dunn]

Nice Floater of the area
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... 16vis.html

appears to be some very weak rotation mostly just the wave axis

[wxman57]

Euro 168 hours is the only development i see from it

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... z/f168.gif

That's last night's run, but I just plotted the 12Z ECMWF run with isobars every 0.5mb and it has a 1005 mb low moving across the central Yucatan next Wednesday. It develops a weak low near Panama by Friday and tracks it NW to the Yucatan next Wednesday. Heck, here's the screen shot. Again, I plotted isobars every 0.5mb. Normal weather maps are every 4 mb, so my map shows 8 times as many contours. Pressures across the northern Gulf are only 5mb higher than over the Yucatan.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro 168 hours is the only development i see from it

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... z/f168.gif

That's last night's run, but I just plotted the 12Z ECMWF run with isobars every 0.5mb and it has a 1005 mb low moving across the central Yucatan next Wednesday. It develops a weak low near Panama by Friday and tracks it NW to the Yucatan next Wednesday. Heck, here's the screen shot. Again, I plotted isobars every 0.5mb. Normal weather maps are every 4 mb, so my map shows 8 times as many contours. Pressures across the northern Gulf are only 5mb higher than over the Yucatan.

I know its from last night but the 12z has not updated on the psu site

that is interesting though two seperate system.. the cmc develops what appears to be both and the euro just the SW carrib

[Stormcenter]

NWS out of New Orleans, LA this afternoon doesn't see anything in the GOM for at least 7 days.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THAN
NORMAL EXTEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AT
PRESENT...NO SIGNALS OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN GULF SEEN FOR AT
LEAST 7 DAYS.

[Aric Dunn]

hmm..



I think the CMC is just developing the same system twice !!! lol

just two different pieces of the same thing

[Cyclone1]

I would love to see this pan out. It would just be so bizzare.

[rainman31]

I asked in another thread. Is it possible to have 2 hurricanes in the gulf at the same time, and has it ever happened., Thank You for your response.

[vaffie]

I think regardless, it's fair to say that things might start getting interesting in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The NAM, the Canadian and the Euro all appear to be forecasting tropical development from this trough/wave. The water is record hot, and though 99L didn't form into anything, it did show how much deep convection was possible in the area right now. The 42059 buoy is reporting 15-25 knot winds from the SE right now and a pressure of 1011-12 mb.

[Aric Dunn]

So in those images, the cmc does not develop the area near cuba till friday

and the one SSE of Jamaica till saturday

[wxman57]

NWS out of New Orleans, LA this afternoon doesn't see anything in the GOM for at least 7 days.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THAN
NORMAL EXTEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AT
PRESENT...NO SIGNALS OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN GULF SEEN FOR AT
LEAST 7 DAYS.

Most years, about this time, we look out there across the tropics and say something like "No signals of tropical activity in Gulf seen for at least 7 days". The next day, we wake up and storms are exploding in the Caribbean. It happens so quickly this time of year. One minute you can't imagine the possibility of development in the next week, the next minute you're proven wrong.

[Aric Dunn]

NWS out of New Orleans, LA this afternoon doesn't see anything in the GOM for at least 7 days.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THAN
NORMAL EXTEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AT
PRESENT...NO SIGNALS OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN GULF SEEN FOR AT
LEAST 7 DAYS.

Most years, about this time, we look out there across the tropics and say something like "No signals of tropical activity in Gulf seen for at least 7 days". The next day, we wake up and storms are exploding in the Caribbean. It happens so quickly this time of year. One minute you can't imagine the possibility of development in the next week, the next minute you're proven wrong.

Its like a "back Draft" in a fire. You cant tell anything is happening then all of sudden BOOM!!!!

[drezee]

NWS out of New Orleans, LA this afternoon doesn't see anything in the GOM for at least 7 days.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THAN
NORMAL EXTEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AT
PRESENT...NO SIGNALS OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN GULF SEEN FOR AT
LEAST 7 DAYS.

Sounds like famous last words...

[southerngale]

NWS out of New Orleans, LA this afternoon doesn't see anything in the GOM for at least 7 days.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THAN
NORMAL EXTEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AT
PRESENT...NO SIGNALS OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN GULF SEEN FOR AT
LEAST 7 DAYS.

Most years, about this time, we look out there across the tropics and say something like "No signals of tropical activity in Gulf seen for at least 7 days". The next day, we wake up and storms are exploding in the Caribbean. It happens so quickly this time of year. One minute you can't imagine the possibility of development in the next week, the next minute you're proven wrong.

Exactly. I don't know how many times I've gone to bed thinking there was nothing out there, and then wake up to recon scheduled and later that day, a TD or a TS... something along those lines anyway. I know it happens rather fast, and as a *surprise* sometimes.

[srainhoutx]

Alicia, August 1983 comes to mind.

[Aric Dunn]

NWS out of New Orleans, LA this afternoon doesn't see anything in the GOM for at least 7 days.

Most years, about this time, we look out there across the tropics and say something like "No signals of tropical activity in Gulf seen for at least 7 days". The next day, we wake up and storms are exploding in the Caribbean. It happens so quickly this time of year. One minute you can't imagine the possibility of development in the next week, the next minute you're proven wrong.

Exactly. I don't know how many times I've gone to bed thinking there was nothing out there, and then wake up to recon scheduled and later that day, a TD or a TS... something along those lines anyway. I know it happens rather fast, and as a *surprise* sometimes.

all i have to say is 2005!!! it seemed like every morning something new was forming

i hate this quoting thing always have to change something and it gets all screwed up



*edited by southerngale to fix the quotes