System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[Dean4Storms]

The convection in the Carib. does appear to be increasing this afternoon.

[Cyclone1]

Interesting, but wake me up when we get an INVEST.

[srainhoutx]

snipet fron NCEP this afternoon...


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
257 PM EDT WED AUG 08 2007

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 11 2007 - 12Z WED AUG 15 2007

WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
YUCATAN AREA FOR NEXT SUN-MON DAYS 6-7. PLEASE REFER TO
DISCUSSIONS FROM TPC.

[vaffie]

Mention in the Houston long-term AFD.

WHAT MAY BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF GOOD NEWS AFTER THIS BOUT OF HOT WEATHER IS THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK (ECMWF HAS A MORE ORGANIZED LOOKING WAVE THAN THE GFS BUT GIVEN THE GFS TRACK RECORD SO FAR THIS SUMMER I WONT BE HOLDING MY BREATH.)

[miamicanes177]

BUT GIVEN THE GFS TRACK RECORD SO FAR THIS SUMMER I WONT BE HOLDING MY BREATH.)

I thought the GFS was the best model in the world? If not, then what is?

[Portastorm]

The Austin-San Antonio NWS forecast office chirps in:

A EASTERLY WAVE FEATURE FORMING NEAR HISPANIOLA
COULD BE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS AT LEAST ONE MODEL
HAS A TROPICAL STORM MIGRATING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
BY TUESDAY. THE MORE REASONABLE CONSENSUS OF MODELS
SUGGESTS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
LATER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL ADD SLIGHT AREAL ENHANCEMENT
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEXT WEDNESDAY
AND WAIT FOR LATER RUNS.

[Sanibel]

That would have to come from that messy "flying V" wave currently in the Caribbean - The next flaring wave to play with our minds.

If this verifies, according to CMC, we will have a TS developing south of Jamaica Saturday morning.

We are really dry here. A TS raining out over us would be welcome.

[MGC]

This may be the one time out of a hundred that the CMC is right. When I saw the 2 TC's though I started to chuckle to myself......MGC

[skysummit]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 082109
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA NORTHEASTWARD FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 082109
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA NORTHEASTWARD FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

The TWO was posted in the right thread,which is not this one.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96786&start=0

[skysummit]

Sorry Luis....I thought this was a tropically related thread also.

[cycloneye]

Sorry Luis....I thought this was a tropically related thread also.

The area that Beven says in the TWO is NE of Hispanola covering a big area in the Western Atlantic,not in the Caribbean that CMC develops something.

[hicksta]

guess its the wait and watch game

[canegrl04]

Interesting new developments.Maybe the models have caught on to something .Could we dare be looking at a TS in the GOM by the end of next week?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Interesting new developments.Maybe the models have caught on to something .Could we dare be looking at a TS in the GOM by the end of next week?

Bastardi thinks it is possible, but the CMC uses a Fujiwara interaction to get the main cyclone as far North into the Gulf as it gets. The ECMWF solution, of low pressure drifting Westward into Mexico, seems more reasonable, IMHO, with an almost 600 DM ridge North of Texas.

[Wx_Warrior]

From Accuweather.com

"A break down in the Atlantic ridge caused by an upper-level trough forming over the eastern U.S. will allow tropical moisture and waves to track farther north and more into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter part of next week. So, this will be an area to keep an eye on next week."

[CoCo2]

Well, if a single wave spawns two TCs that Fujiwara around each other, in the Gulf, than I'm the King of Sweden.

I have never seen a model .. forecast something like that ever .. A little strange

A model did forcast something just like this a couple of weeks before Katrina even formed. I remember it. It was the same type of graphic just posted on this subject matter. No one can find it, but the model was right on. I remember it well because the model had it coming to my neck of the woods, and then a couple of weeks later, Katrina destroyed my neck of the woods.

[Ivanhater]

Wow...what a monster...I agree with wxman57..things are about to be turned on...I remember in '05...There was a statement from the NHC saying something like "atlantic riddled with upper level low" then bam...Highs reaching 100 in Pensacola this weekend...gulf water will be boiling!

[Steve]

>>I thought the GFS was the best model in the world? If not, then what is?

No. I think there have been some years where it verified more than other models, but for my money, it's usually not too good in the long term for general weather patterns during tropical season. If you look at all the models for prediction and actual weather readings, satelites, temperatures, indices, etc. to suppliment your own two eyes, you'd probably do better than any model.

ECMWF, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFS, JMA, NAM, etc. all have their pluses and minuses.

Steve

[Opal storm]

All this activity from the models have raised my concerns, definitely will be keeping an eye on things during the next week or so.