System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Perhaps it should be noted that the CMC is not developing a major hurricane, only one a strong tropical storm or a possibly borderline category 1 hurricane.

8/8 12Z run:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif
Main: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/

12Z run:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_144.jpg
Main: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... bal_e.html

987-989mb would be approximately:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Strong tropcial storm or just at hurricane strength.

Perhaps the title of the thread should be updated.

Of course we don't know if it were to strengthen or weaken from the end of the forecast period. Lets see what the longer 0Z run brings.

[T-man]

The TWO was posted in the right thread,which is not this one.


I hope it was ok for the TWO to be posted in this thread. After all, this is the thread I was reading. And the TWO is for the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the GOM. And doesn't the part that says "tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 48 hrs." refer to all three of the above mentioned areas? If not, please explain it to me.

[Derek Ortt]

The CMC has a 1 degree resolution. That depiction is very similar to how a major hurricnae is depicted in a global model.

Personally, I think it is a mile high pile of horse dung (insert the real word to get the proper affect)

[jaxfladude]

CMC stands for
Consistent
Model
Crap

[chadtm80]

:shoot: The TWO was posted in the right thread,which is not this one.


I hope it was ok for the TWO to be posted in this thread. After all, this is the thread I was reading. And the TWO is for the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the GOM. And doesn't the part that says "tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 48 hrs." refer to all three of the above mentioned areas? If not, please explain it to me.

Yes T-man.. Sorry. Nothing wrong with you posting it here what so ever. I think what Luis was meant was the "storm" they were talking about in the TWO was not the same storm being discussed here. He didn't mean any harm in it. Just came across wrong maybe.. There also is a language barrier No harm, no Foul

[jaxfladude]

JB refers to the CMC as a "crazy uncle" that most of the time is wrong, but on occassion can be right. In this case he thinks the model shows us two things...

-The GOM will be primed for possible situational development in the coming week.

-The ridge will keep systems from heading too far north and will instead steer them west (toward the western GOM).

Not this season way too much shear and the SAL owns much of the Atlantic Ocean and all of these other unfavorable conditions for tropical development will most likely staying in place until the end of the season, face it 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season is very much to be recorded as one of the quietest and weakest hurricane seasons in world history...

[T-man]

Thanks, Chad. So it seems that the CMC model is not in favor with most of the pro mets, unless you're Canadien? I thought I saw some of the other models hinting at some development in the GOM in that same timeframe. Since that's in the neighborhood, I'm interested to learn what the future holds for this area. Maybe they worked the kinks out of their algorithims this year

[southerngale]

JB refers to the CMC as a "crazy uncle" that most of the time is wrong, but on occassion can be right. In this case he thinks the model shows us two things...

-The GOM will be primed for possible situational development in the coming week.

-The ridge will keep systems from heading too far north and will instead steer them west (toward the western GOM).

Not this season way too much shear and the SAL owns much of the Atlantic Ocean and all of these other unfavorable conditions for tropical development will most likely staying in place until the end of the season, face it 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season is very much to be recorded as one of the quietest and weakest hurricane seasons in world history...

That sure is a bold statement to make on August 8th.

[jaxfladude]

JB refers to the CMC as a "crazy uncle" that most of the time is wrong, but on occassion can be right. In this case he thinks the model shows us two things...

-The GOM will be primed for possible situational development in the coming week.

-The ridge will keep systems from heading too far north and will instead steer them west (toward the western GOM).

Not this season way too much shear and the SAL owns much of the Atlantic Ocean and all of these other unfavorable conditions for tropical development will most likely staying in place until the end of the season, face it 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season is very much to be recorded as one of the quietest and weakest hurricane seasons in world history...

That sure is a bold statement to make on August 8th.

I am just trying to to provoke the "Hurricane Gods"....

[rainman31]

[ROCK]

To my untrained eyes, it does look like some consolidation is taking place in that complex under PR. Plenty moist in the carib also. Could be that the ULL to the south of Cuba is interacting with the wave....hmmmm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

also some favorable shear ahead.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Heat potential is not a problem either.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Not this season way too much shear and the SAL owns much of the Atlantic Ocean and all of these other unfavorable conditions for tropical development will most likely staying in place until the end of the season, [b]face it 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season is very much to be recorded as one of the quietest and weakest hurricane seasons in world history...

I am just trying to to provoke the "Hurricane Gods"....

The last time I tried to provoke the hurricane gods I was almost
struck by lightning...and in 04 I provoked them and their wrath was
cruel....

[HeeBGBz]

So is this the start of the run? 15n70w?



On the visuals, it looks like it wouldn't take much to get this circulating.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT1/anim16vis.html

I'm talking about that cloud swirl just as it gets dark.

[canetracker]

On the visuals, it looks like it wouldn't take much to get this circulating.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT1/anim16vis.html

I'm talking about that cloud swirl just as it gets dark.

I do see the swirl you are referring to. It happens just as it gets dark like you said. Will be interesting to watch and see what happens.

Here is the infrared look at it:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html

[ROCK]

On the visuals, it looks like it wouldn't take much to get this circulating.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT1/anim16vis.html

I'm talking about that cloud swirl just as it gets dark.

I do see the swirl you are referring to. It happens just as it gets dark like you said. Will be interesting to watch and see what happens.

Here is the infrared look at it:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html

Yep, like I said some consolidation. That swirl looks to be at mid-levels and then washes out in the last few frames. Nice link BTW.....didnt have that one....

[Nimbus]

The caribbean is my pet area for development but IR at night can be deceiving. Shrimper thought he saw something 9 hours ago near 65W and there does look like a mid level twist near 70W tonight.

I once stared at Van Goghs Starry Night till it started looking like subaru wheels so you should take my night observations with a grain of salt.

[rainman31]

that's funny, I have that picture too.

[Blown Away]

Where do you see the consolidation, SE of DR?

[HeeBGBz]

Yep, like I said some consolidation. That swirl looks to be at mid-levels and then washes out in the last few frames. Nice link BTW.....didnt have that one....

If you were talking about my link, I picked it up in a thread here from someone's post, and I thank them for it. It is a good source.

So the apparent swirlyness shows up on infrared too.

I once stared at Van Goghs Starry Night till it started looking like subaru wheels so you should take my night observations with a grain of salt.

The stars look like hurricanes to me. Post-Katrina Rorschach.

[Blown Away]

Low level spin around 15N/65W.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... 16vis.html