GFS continues to develop African wave

[Scorpion]

In my opinion this 16 day forcast from the GFS is useless and should really be discounted.Any model that far out in time is at a very low skill level and is likely to be wrong.Adrian

Nobody is taking the final solution with any seriousness, however it has been showing a hurricane traversing the Atlantic for the past several runs, and development should begin in a few days of this feature

Lets see according to the GFS we should have been hit about by 5 times already from a CAT 3 into south florida to 3-4 landfalls of a hugo type system in the carolina's.

The GFS will always change the final solution. The final solution is meaningless. The fact that it continually shows a hurricane forming and traversing the Atlantic several runs in a row is very significant.

[Sanibel]

Hmm. GFS could be on to something here after all. The wave axis appears to have dropped further south:


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/images/xxirmet7n.GIF


On the other hand GFS could be blind to the SAL

[cycloneye]

00z GFS is starting to roll.

[Vortex]

H-24 00z GFS 8/9 beginning to move off the coast...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

[skysummit]

I don't believe that's it vortex...although I could be wrong.

[cycloneye]

36 hours

Here it comes.

[Vortex]

H-36 Low pressure just off the coast of Africa

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

[Vortex]

cyclone ill let you post GFS so we don't duplicate

[cycloneye]

48 hours

[cycloneye]

60 hours

[windstorm99]

72hrs

[cycloneye]

72 hours

Nothing conclusive yet about the Eastern Atlantic system in terms of movement and strengh.

[cycloneye]

90 hours

It starts to get stronger in 90 hours as it moves WNW.

[Scorpion]

Its developing it faster so far on this run

[windstorm99]

Down to 1006-1005mb.

[cycloneye]

102 hours

No big changes in this 102 hour frame from the 90 hour timeframe in terms of strengh but it moves more westward.

[cycloneye]

114 hours

1004 mbs in 114 hours.

[cycloneye]

126 hours

1003 mbs in 126 hours.

[miamicanes177]

This means if the GFS is correct then we should have Dean within 5 days

[cycloneye]

144 hours

A little more WNW with the same 1003 mbs in this 144 hour frame.