GFS continues to develop African wave

[cycloneye]

156 hours

No changes in pressure at 156 hours.

[MGC]

I am totally discounting TC development off the African coast by Saturday. The Sahara just belched another load of dust. It is quite evident on satellite. This desiccation of the atmosphere over the eastern Atlantic should prohibit any development....MGC

[cycloneye]

168 hours

1002 mbs in 168 hours.

[Vortex]

I'm going with Dean late Sunday/Monday ssw of the Cape Verde Islands....

[cycloneye]

192 hours.

Less strong as it moves closer to the Lesser Antilles at 192 hours.

[cheezyWXguy]

192 hours.

Less strong as it moves closer to the Lesser Antilles at 192 hours.

It is not necessarily showing the storm as weaker, and does this with every run, once the time gets to 192...after that, a low of just 1007mb can represent a low that is much lower than that

[miamicanes177]

192 hours.

Less strong as it moves closer to the Lesser Antilles at 192 hours.

It is not necessarily showing the storm as weaker, and does this with every run, once the time gets to 192...after that, a low of just 1007mb can represent a low that is much lower than that

Yes it's not showing it any weaker than the previous run at this time. The fact that it still develops it is the important thing. There is very little skill (if any) in intensity forecasts at 8 days in advance.

[cycloneye]

264 hours

In 264 hours,it is stronger and takes a track north of the Antilles.

288 hours

More stronger at 288 hours,near the Bahamas.

[skysummit]

Major hurricane hitting New York City.

[cycloneye]

336 hours

And here is the final destination of this system as a hurricane in 336 hours.

348 hours

And in 348 hours,it goes up to New York City.

Ok now I will go to bed.

[Hurricaneman]

Im hoping that this solution doesnt come true, but it wont be known if this will take this track, let alone know if there is going to be a landfall or even if this is going to develop

[HurricaneRobert]

336 hours

And here is the final destination of this system as a hurricane in 336 hours.

348 hours

And in 348 hours,it goes up to New York City.

Ok now I will go to bed.

yeah right

[Scorpion]

Lol first its Andrew then Hugo now 1938... seems like the GFS enjoys going through every doomsday scenario

[Vortex]

African wave gains additional support as the CMC and more importantly the Ukmet join the GFS in future developments off the coast of Africa late this weekend...


UKmet 00z 8/9
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

CMC 00z 8/9
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Meso]

The CMC has been with it for development for a few days now.Ukmet also showed a low although more prominent now..

I think this may be the wave


SAL is mainly to the North of the waves latitude,maybe another wave will form behind it and somewhat save it from being invaded from the east,will see.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its at 8 north,,,,in the "cap" of dry air is more then just the SAL. The Atlantic is all messed up for development. It may happen but it will went to stay below 12 north. Also if it 'bombs' meaning strengthens fast it will go west-northwest or northwest to 12-14 north, like the gfs is hinting. I give it a 20 percent chance of not going poof.

[Weatherfreak14]

Well, the 6z run still develops it, waiting on the finished run here anytime now.
174hrs.

[Meso]

288 hours,it's almost looking like it did in a dream I had about it last night (crossing florida and moving into the GOM)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would not put any stock into the 288 hour gfs. Lets see if it can develop first.

[Weatherfreak14]

Meso, that isnt a dream, its a nightmare, waiting on the rest of the run to see where it goes from there.