#14 Postby Chacor » Fri Aug 10, 2007 9:44 pm
WTPN21 PGTW 102130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/ TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.5N 122.5E TO 32.3N 124.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
101730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N
122.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25.3N
126.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 122.9, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A TIGHT AREA OF TURNING
WITHIN A BROADER GYRE TYPE CIRCULATION. CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED
IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE EAST OF THE TIGHTEST
TURNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
OVERALL BROAD CIRCULATION. PRESSURE FALLS IN THE REGION ARE ON THE
ORDER OF 5 TO 6 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE AREA IS IN A REGION
OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB. SINCE
THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED AND THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 112130Z.//
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