***CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS/STORMS/REPORTS IN THE US***

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 8
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 540 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SELMA ALABAMA TO 45
MILES NORTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION... CONTINUE...WW 7...

DISCUSSION...SUB-SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NEWD
ACROSS E-CENTRAL MS EARLY THIS EVENING. A SQUALL LINE WHICH HAS
MAINTAINED SEVERAL SMALL CIRCULATIONS AND HAS A HISTORY OF ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE ACROSS CENTRAL MS CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD TOWARDS WRN
AL. THOUGH LOSS OF HEATING WILL WEAKEN CAPES OVER AL AFTER
SUNSET...SMALL-SCALE ENHANCEMENTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND/OR BRIEF TORNADOES FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS.


AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH...EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY / WV / VA / MD / NC

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 160021Z - 160415Z

AN AREA OF MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE IN ERN KY...WV...VA...NRN NC AND MD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. BRIEF SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR AND
SLEET/FREEZING RAINFALL RATES OVER .10 IN/HR ARE LIKELY.

BENEATH CONFLUENT MID-UPPER LVL FLOW AND AN INCREASING 850MB WAA
REGIME...FROZEN PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THRU THE EVENING HOURS. A RECENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM EXTREME NRN TN...EWD
THRU NERN TN...INTO WRN NC...ESEWD THRU MUCH OF SRN NC INTO THE
SERN COASTAL PLAINS OF NC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST OF SERN KY...SCNTRL/SRN WV...ESEWD INTO WRN/SRN
VA AS WELL AS NRN NC WITH THE PRESENT FREEZING LINE FROM NCNTRL
KY...NNEWD THRU NCNTRL WV...AND ESEWD THRU CNTRL VA.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE ETA/GFS INDICATE INCREASING WAA
FROM THE MS/AL GULF COASTAL REGION...NNEWD INTO ERN TN AND THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THIS WILL AID IN THE ADVANCEMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO ERN TN/ERN KY/SRN
WV/AND WRN VA OVER A VERY SHALLOW COLD LAYER. PRECIP TYPES/FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EVENT IS
LIKELY FROM SRN WV/SWRN VA...EWD INTO SRN/SCNTRL VA WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AXIS EXPECTED FROM SERN OH...THRU NRN WV...WRN
MD...INTO NRN VA.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN AND ERN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 7...

VALID 152351Z - 160145Z

A FEW ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN BOWING LINE SEGMENTS MOVING
ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE MESOLOW MOVING ENEWD
ACROSS E CENTRAL MS ATTM. MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PERSISTS...AS DOES STORM ROTATION PER LATEST
RADAR DATA. STRONGEST COUPLET ATTM APPEARS TO BE MOVING NEWD OUT
OF NRN JONES COUNTY INTO JASPER COUNTY MS. SEVERE THREAT WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF LINE AS BOWING SEGMENTS MOVE EWD INTO
NEWLY-ISSUED WW OVER WRN AL.

[chadtm80]

Looks like im going to get some rain here sunday and monday..... per the local forcasters there only right about 20% of the time.. I am planning on going fishing again monday morning.... am i going to get rained out?????????

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

2330 60 RALEIGH SMITH MS 3203 8953 REPORTED BY SMITH COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (JAN)
2330 UNK DECATUR NEWTON MS 3243 8911 NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. SHED FLIPPED OVER. REPORTED BY NEWTON COUNTY EMA. (JAN)
2332 UNK PULASKI SCOTT MS 3226 8960 LARGE LIMBS, NUMEROUS TREES, AND POWERLINES DOWN. TREE TOPS TWISTED OFF. REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR. (JAN)
2345 UNK LAWRENCE NEWTON MS 3231 8923 A FEW TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGE. REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR. (JAN)
0015 UNK MOSS JASPER MS 3181 8920 A FEW TREES DOWN ON THE JASPER JONES COUNTY LINE.REPORTED BY JASPER COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (JAN)

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Looks like im going to get some rain here sunday and monday..... per the local forcasters there only right about 20% of the time.. I am planning on going fishing again monday morning.... am i going to get rained out?????????

Hope this helps ya Chad:

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2003

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH A SUMMER
LIKE CU DEVLOPMENT ACROSS THE PENINSULA. ECSB HAS GOTTEN UNDERWAY S
OF THE CAPE AND WILL STILL MOVE ONTO THE BEACHES N OF THE CAPE BY
THIS EVE. A MILD NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT WITH TEMPS ANOTHER 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

SUNDAY...SHRT WAVE AND ASSTD SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MS VLY
TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY MON MORNING. FNTL BNDRY MOVING DOWN
THE STATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PCPN
ALONG AND AHEAD OF BNDRY. ETA SUITE AND AVN BOTH CONTINUE TO DEPICT
FEATURE NEAR YUCATAN CHANNEL TO BE LIFTED NWD AROUND PERIFERY OF
UPPER RIDGE AND GET INVOLVED WITH SHRT WV/FNTL BNDRY. THE AVN KEEPS
THE SYS AS MORE OF A DISCRETE FEATURE WHILE THE ETA PRODUCTS ABSORB
THE MOISTURE. WHILE THERE IS NO DOUBT THE FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCY AS TO HOW
MUCH ADDTNL DYANMICS THIS MAY PROVIDE AHEAD OF THE BNDRY. THE AVN
CONTS TO BE THE WETTER MDL BUT SEEMS TO SPONTANEOUSLY GENERATE
VERTICAL MOTION WITH FEATURE BTWN 24 AND 30 HRS. THIS SEEMS TO BE A
RESULT OF...OR CAUSE FOR...A BREAK IN THE UPPER JET STREAK PRODUCING
VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE GENERATED "HOLE" AND THE
DOWSTREAM FLOW. FEEL THIS UVM MAY BE EXCESSIVE AND RESULTS IN PCPN
SMEARING WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. REGARDLESS...WAA AHEAD OF
BNDRY...UPPER DIVERGENCE...DIFF VORT ADV AND MINIMAL MID LEVEL
COOLING WILL RESULT IN GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS OVER THE N HALF OF
FCST AREA DURING THE AFTN. WILL UP PCPN CHC TO 70 PCT IN THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT IN PCPN CHCS
FROM S TO N SUN AFTN AND WILL GO WITH CHC POPS TO THE S.

SHEAR PROFILES WITH H8 WINDS A BIT STRONGER NOW UP TO 35 KTS MEANS
SVR THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NRN AREAS THROUGH THE EVE HOURS.
REF SPC 2ND DAY OUTLOOK. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER.

SHRA/TS WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH DYNAMICAL FORCING STILL
FAVORING THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. ETA PROGS AND EVEN THE
AVN DEPICT A WEAKENING FNTL BNDRY WITH DYNAMICS STAYING TO THE N AND
REDUCING LOW LEVEL FORCING AS BNDRY SLIDES DOWN THE PENINSULA.

MONDAY...PCPN WILL COME TO AN END FROM N TO S AS FNT CLEAR THE AREA
AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW.

TUESDAY AND EXTENDED...GFS NOW SHOWS FNTL BNDRY DOES NOT MOVE TOO
FAR S OF THE STATE AND BEGINS TO LIFT IT BAKC NWD THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS IS EARLIER THAN PAST RUNS AND LAST NIGHTS MRF SOLUTION. WILL
RESTRICT THIS MOISTURE ADVANCE TO ONLY THE SRN AREAS.

MARINE...ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE COAST S OF THE CAPE WILL VEER THIS
EVENING AS SYNOPTIC S FLOW TAKES HOLD AHEAD OF SHRT WV MOVG THRU THE
LOWER MS VLY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS HIGHER VELOCITY
WINDS ABV THE SFC BEGIN TO MIX DOWN. ENOUGH SUN ALONG THE SE COAST
TO PERHAPS BRING WINDS AROUND BUT NOT LKLY. EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP SUN WITH SCA OVER AT LEAST THE NRN WATERS BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

[chadtm80]

hmmm hope its out of here by moday am

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

0050 UNK MERIDIAN LAUDERDALE MS 3236 8871 A FEW TREES DOWN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. REPORTED BY THE CITY OF MERIDIAN PUBLIC WORKS. (JAN)
0115 60 SUMRALL LAMAR MS 3141 8955 REPORTED BY NWS SPOTTER. (JAN)

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY / WV / VA / MD / NC

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 160021Z - 160415Z

AN AREA OF MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE IN ERN KY...WV...VA...NRN NC AND MD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. BRIEF SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR AND
SLEET/FREEZING RAINFALL RATES OVER .10 IN/HR ARE LIKELY.

BENEATH CONFLUENT MID-UPPER LVL FLOW AND AN INCREASING 850MB WAA
REGIME...FROZEN PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THRU THE EVENING HOURS. A RECENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM EXTREME NRN TN...EWD
THRU NERN TN...INTO WRN NC...ESEWD THRU MUCH OF SRN NC INTO THE
SERN COASTAL PLAINS OF NC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST OF SERN KY...SCNTRL/SRN WV...ESEWD INTO WRN/SRN
VA AS WELL AS NRN NC WITH THE PRESENT FREEZING LINE FROM NCNTRL
KY...NNEWD THRU NCNTRL WV...AND ESEWD THRU CNTRL VA.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE ETA/GFS INDICATE INCREASING WAA
FROM THE MS/AL GULF COASTAL REGION...NNEWD INTO ERN TN AND THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THIS WILL AID IN THE ADVANCEMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO ERN TN/ERN KY/SRN
WV/AND WRN VA OVER A VERY SHALLOW COLD LAYER. PRECIP TYPES/FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EVENT IS
LIKELY FROM SRN WV/SWRN VA...EWD INTO SRN/SCNTRL VA WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AXIS EXPECTED FROM SERN OH...THRU NRN WV...WRN
MD...INTO NRN VA.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN LA / SERN MS / SRN AL / WRN FL
PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 160144Z - 160445Z

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SERN LA AND SERN MS
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...UNLESS THREAT
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY...NEW WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED AS AREA
NOT INCLUDED IN WW'S 7 AND 8 IS LIMITED.

LATEST SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW MOIST / MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE GULF COAST / LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
ATTM. WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INDICATED BY MOB WSR-88D...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING. SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION MAY BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL VORT MAX / JET STREAK AND APPROACH OF UPPER
60F SURFACE DEW POINTS. LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE SUGGESTS WW NOT
NECESSARY ATTM...THOUGH AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN ANY
FURTHER WW/S LATER THIS EVENING.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SE HUM 25 SSW MEI 20 SE CBM 45 NNW HSV 45 SW CSV 20 WNW LGC
30 WSW PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S LRD 20 SSW VCT
45 NNW BPT 20 SSW MLU 55 S HRO OWB 40 S SDF LOZ 40 SE LOZ
45 WSW AVL 35 ESE ATL AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 30 SE OLM
20 NE MFR 30 NNW RBL 50 S UKI.

...SERN LA..SERN MS...AL..SMALL PORTION TN..
SMALL SCALE LOW CENTER OVER EAST CENTRAL MS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NEWD INTO NRN AL AND POSSIBLY THE SRN PORTION OF MIDDLE TN DURING
REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA
MOVE NEWD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE
MID 60S EXTEND NEWD AS FAR AS CENTRAL/NRN AL AND 00Z SOUNDING FROM
BMX INDICATING A SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUE OF 2000 J/KG. HODOGRAPH
IS LINEAR, BUT SUGGESTS RISK OF BOW ECHOES AND ISOLATED
MESOCYCLONES.

A SQUALL LINE WITH A SERIES OF BOW ECHOES AND LEWPS HAVE BEEN
MOVING EWD FROM SERN LA NEWD INTO EXTREME NWRN AL. OCCASIONAL WIND
DAMAGE AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG THIS LINE
OVER MS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. PRIND THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT OF OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH
THIS SQUALL LINE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
MOVES EWD ACROSS MUCH OF AL AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE....PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE GULF COAST.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
0145 75 BEN BOLT JIM WELLS TX 2765 9808 (CRP)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
0115 60 SUMRALL LAMAR MS 3141 8955 REPORTED BY NWS SPOTTER. (JAN)

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0851 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8...

VALID 160251Z - 160415Z

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED BOWS CONTINUES MOVING NEWD
ACROSS WW AREA. SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL
AL.

LATEST KBMX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
INCREASING...WITH 55 KTS INDICATED FROM THE SOUTH AT 1 KM --
WHICH COMBINED WITH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY INDICATED BY 00Z BMX
SOUNDING SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

TWO SEPARATE BOW ECHOES ARE EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY LOOP MOVING
NEWD AT AROUND 50 KT...AND EXTRAPOLATION INDICATES THE CONVECTION
WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE WATCH AT AROUND THE 16/04Z EXPIRATION
TIME. ATTM...NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS INSTABILITY APPEARS TO
BE WEAKER ACROSS ERN AL...AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. EXCEPTION
MAY BE NEARER THE GULF COAST WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY AND RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

[Stormsfury]

1st confirmed tornado of the year ... don't have details where it was at yet.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Yeah...I never found out either...its a toss-up between 3 different places as far as I can see. I think it was in MS. Some reports there from the SPC signifies some heavier damage....mightve been an F1 or a 2 at best

[StormCrazyIowan]

I can't wait til the first tornado I actually see!

[Stormsfury]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

[isobar]

Hmm, no tornadoes from that report, but plenty of straight line winds from those bows.

[Stormsfury]

Paul Kocin or Greg Forbes said something about the first confirmed tornado about an hour ago.

[Stormsfury]

Could have been possibly here.

LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
0108 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

TIME(CST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....

1215 PM DELCAMBRE LA WIND DAMAGE
02/15/03 VERMILION TRAILER PARK DESTROYED.