Trough in Caribbean

[tailgater]

It doesn't matter to me which thread we use, But it would easier to keep updated if we only used 1 at least until(if) it develops.
This chart shows 2 separate vorticites one North of Haiti and one south of the Mona Passage.it has shown these areas for a couple of days now and I think this is what the CMC is trying to show in it's forecast.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

[boca]

It doesn't matter to me which thread we use, But it would easier to keep updated if we only used 1 at least until(if) it develops.
This chart shows 2 separate vorticites one North of Haiti and one south of the Mona Passage.it has shown these areas for a couple of days now and I think this is what the CMC is trying to show in it's forecast.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

When looking at that vorticity map which layer is the best to look at the 200, 500 or 700mb

[tailgater]

It doesn't matter to me which thread we use, But it would easier to keep updated if we only used 1 at least until(if) it develops.
This chart shows 2 separate vorticites one North of Haiti and one south of the Mona Passage.it has shown these areas for a couple of days now and I think this is what the CMC is trying to show in it's forecast.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

When looking at that vorticity map which layer is the best to look at the 200, 500 or 700mb

Look at the 850mb layer chart, because it's closest to the surface, 700mb can easily work it's way down to the surface also.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 090200
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEAS ACROSS HISPANIOLA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Since the wording of the area that the Tropical Weather Outlook mentions is the Central Caribbean,I posted it in this thread.

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

looks like a invest tomorrow roughly at 15n and 68w.

[Normandy]

Moving my comments over to this thread.....

I don't think Im as gung-ho on this as other are....honestly to me it just looks like a big sheared flare up of thunderstorms that are induced by interaction with the ULL north of PR.

As far as mid level turning, yes I do see a faint indication of mid-level turning....but not really anywhere near the latest convective flare-up....moreso to the NW closer to Haiti/DR. Not much organization right now to warrant an invest imo, but things can change tomorrow.

[Nimbus]

Once the NHC decides on a circulation center we will either have to rename this thread or move to the CMC thread.

[alan1961]

you dont need any models or data from the experts, your trained eyes on the sat loops are enough to tell you that nothings really got a chance at the moment to develop in the caribbean...the convection flaring up is going in all directions being hammered with shear..the only real stats that you can have any real confidence in is when you see the words " upper level winds unfavourable " in a report then you can get back to that sat loop and see why.

[Incident_MET]

"the convection flaring up is going in all directions being hammered with shear.."

Im trying to understand this can you please explain. TKS

[alan1961]

convection results in clouds dosent it..what where seeing on the sat loops..or are my eyes decieving me..whatever you want to call this convection its there on the sat loops in the form of clouds.

[Incident_MET]

I don't doubt that convection results in clouds. Shear is typically not directional in nature however when we are talking about the tropics. There does appear to be some westerly speed shear on this area north of about 15N or 16N but conditions appear favorable at least for the southern portion of this area to develop in the short term.

[Blown Away]

The area near 15N/68W is the only thing we have in the Atlantic. There is some rotation in the clouds. I'm sure I'll over analyze this area all day long.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[ronjon]

We probably need to rename this thread Western Caribbean Development as this system south of Hispanola is looking more and more likely to develop as it moves very slowly toward the western caribbean. I see some broad cyclonic turning which may indicate at least a MLC present near 15N-70W. Conditions will become more favorable as the wave approaches 75W and beyond. The Euro, NAM, and NOGAPs all indicate low pressure developing in the western caribbean/southern GOM in 3-5 days.

[alan1961]

The area near 15N/68W is the only thing we have in the Atlantic. There is some rotation in the clouds. I'm sure I'll over analyze this area all day long.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

i shouldn't worry yourself to much on this area blown away..if this shear dont abate its got no chance..its in roughly the same area as 99L was and look what a headache that was

[tailgater]

The area near 15N/68W is the only thing we have in the Atlantic. There is some rotation in the clouds. I'm sure I'll over analyze this area all day long.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

i shouldn't worry yourself to much on this area blown away..if this shear dont abate its got no chance..its in roughly the same area as 99L was and look what a headache that was

Most on this board aren't expecting much development until this wave/trough reachs the NW Carribean or Southern/SW GOM. Shear doesn't seem to be that bad looking at the current WV loop.

[tailgater]

The latest TWO has no mention of anything
000
ABNT20 KNHC 091451
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Derek Ortt]

there is nothing to mention and the CMC solution was probably LSD induced (only rational conclusion as it appears to be developing something off of SA and I see nothing there)

[Sanibel]

I'm usually aggressive with these Caribbean waves, but I really see nothing in this one. I can't find any surface spiral. Nothing. Just shear interaction along a weak wave.

Thank you Derek. I also concluded the only possibility CMC saw was the Amazonian ITCZ tipping up NW and delivering a tropical wave from land - but one look at the satellite says no.

Discount CMC.

[Normandy]

Cosign.

Any mid-level turning from yesterday is up north near the DR and being hammered by shear.....zero chance for development any time soon.

[Aric Dunn]

OK watch this area later today for some increase in convection! which may lead to our system possibly

so just south of Jamaica.this where we have more convergence and would likely see a increase in some deeper convection later today and tonight


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html

... oh and CMC is not the only model developing it
nogaps is all over it http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

although the Nogaps is jumping on board with euro yesterday


and here is the CMC .. i hardly just call it the cmc on LSD if the nogaps and euro are developing something





also i was reading post earlier and some were debating on vorticity maps well you can use this one which is even closer to the surface at 925mb