GFS continues to develop African wave

[ronjon]

On the 06Z run, looks like the Atlantic Ridge holds strong and will drive it across FL.

[Vortex]

6z GFS....H-300 Over Florida


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_312l.gif

[Weatherfreak14]

300hrs.

[Frank2]

Oh, really? Last evening, Dr. Lyons was calling that same area highly unlikely for any development in the near future, due to a very dry wedge of air that has been running the length of the coastline, from Portugal south to Western Africa.

He also mentioned that any disturbances exiting the African coastline are not developing because of this feature...

[HURRICANELONNY]

It can change very fast in the world of weather.

[Weatherfreak14]

SAL is deffinatly out there but it isnt really strong and the wave out ahead of this may protect the big wave coming off. The big wave the GFS is showing has to stay low to survive.

[DESTRUCTION5]

So our Friend the GFS has bounced from Yucatan to NYC...Id say thata some real consistancy..

['CaneFreak]

Just a thought.....many many hurricanes of the past have survived even though extensive dust was present in the tropical East Atlantic. If you go back and look at some of the hurricanes of 2003 and earlier years, there was still a lot of dust but yet we still had hurricanes develop this far to the east. Again JUST A THOUGHT...conditions dont have to be perfect to have a developing hurricane. Everybody wants perfect conditions, but in an ideal season you are not going to have perfect conditions everytime you have a developing cyclone.

[Frank2]

The SAL is down to 10N, so, that's very significant - you can see that very dry slot (the one Dr. Lyon's mentioned) just off the northwest African coast in the above photo...

You can also see it in the below photo (it appears as a "U" shaped feature that extends south to 15N) - I can't run a loop here (dumb network settings) to see if that is dropping southward:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

P.S. Actually, the dry air strato-cu field extends south to 5N, so, that's significant (I can't recall seeing it that far south)...

[cpdaman]

when Dr. Lyons speaks, I listen.

good call frank

[flwxwatcher]

0Z UKMET shows development in the Eastern Atlantic now as well..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[Frank2]

Thanks, cpdaman - actually, Dr. Lyons referred to it two times as a "death spear", or something similar, when speaking to Jim Cantore, so...

P.S. If anyone can run that Meteosat loop, maybe they can tell us about the movement of that "U" feature I mentioned earlier...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Thanks, cpdaman - actually, Dr. Lyons referred to it two times as a "death spear", or something similar, when speaking to Jim Cantore, so...

Im sorry but Dr. Lyons has called some real doozies..(bad calls)

[Frank2]

He has missed some, but, that dry slot feature is very pronounced at this time...

[Evil Jeremy]

The UKMET is showing very weak formation.

[gatorcane]

I have to say I am getting a *little* ancy considering the GFS is consistently targeting SE Florida. Even though it is 300 hours out it is AT LEAST consistent on its prediction.

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS is now forecasting formation in under 48 hours.

[Weatherfreak14]

Anywhere from mexico to New york should be watching this if it develops and survives.

[skysummit]

I have to say I am getting a *little* ancy considering the GFS is consistently targeting SE Florida. Even though it is 300 hours out it is AT LEAST consistent on its prediction.

What? It has been no where near consistent on Florida. It's been every where from the Yucatan to New York over the past many runs.

[windstorm99]

I have to say I am getting a *little* ancy considering the GFS is consistently targeting SE Florida. Even though it is 300 hours out it is AT LEAST consistent on its prediction.

What? It has been no where near consistent on Florida. It's been every where from the Yucatan to New York over the past many runs.

Actually gatorcane is right the GFS has put a tropical cyclone in florida in its runs the past couple of days.Ive seen it atleast 3-5 times.