El Nino Continuing?

[Frank2]

Just an observation - Flossie might become a hurricane well east of Hawaii (though it's not forecast to threaten Hawaii at this time), so, from what has been mentioned many times, this seems more typical of an El Nino pattern...

[DESTRUCTION5]

I see worms a flying now frank..

[windstorm99]

No chance of el nino being a reason why things may turn out slow.Give it a few weeks and things should ramp up around august 18-20.

[cycloneye]

Frank,I posted the just released August Update from Climate Prediction Center at the ENSO thread.Neutral to weak La Nina is what they are predicting.

[gatorcane]

Agreed Aug 18-20 it should get going.....

[Frank2]

Sure, folks, but, Flossie was in the news this morning as a possible issue for Hawaii, so, thought it interesting to note, since that this is more of an El Nino type pattern...

[HURAKAN]

If this were an El Niño year you would expect the activity in the EPAC to be at or above what is normal for this time of the year. So far, they are way behind, especially in the hurricanes category.

[gatorcane]

adding more support for a possible el nino, the Atlantic has seen mostly subtropical systems which is not a feature of a neutral or la nina year.

[Frank2]

Interesting - it's true that of the three systems, all have been well-sheared tropical storms - it sounds like my days at the NHC, when almost every system in the El Nino early to mid-80s was well-sheared...

[MiamiensisWx]

Frank,

I think you are overanalyzing the situation. Many tropical cyclones which have formed in the EPAC eventually crossed into the CPAC during La Nina/neutral years - look at Darby (1998), Dora (1999), and other storms. 1988 was a strong La Nina year, but there was a large quantity of systems which transversed the EPAC and CPAC - look here. I think there is a slight correlation between ENSO and EPAC paths, but other factors probably influence the basin more than others (IMO). Additionally, the ENSO state is primarily supported by the equatorial Pacific's state (SSTs/subsurface), the SOI/MEI, and other factors.

I agree - I think the Atlantic will feature less storms than expected, but there are several favorable trends in the Pacific. You should consider the relatively inactive WPAC and EPAC seasons (relative to statistical averages) - the recent WPAC burst was initiated by the MJO and monsoonal trough. The 2007 WPAC season has been making a run toward the top ten least active years (in recent decades). We are not entering an El Nino; the trades have been strong across the equatorial ENSO regions; and recent cooling has commenced in the eastern NINO zones. Most of 1998's Atlantic storms did not form until September - that season reached 14 storms.

I think we will observe an above average season.

[MWatkins]

There are plenty of non El-Nino years in recent memory, and in fact very active Atlantic years that featured C-Pac hurricanes.

There were 2 in 2005
2003 had one
1999 had two including one that started up on Aug 11th
1998 had one in July

If there were 4 systems already in that part of the world, then perhaps yes one would think something were amiss. But it's a quantitiy issue in Nino years. It's also with nothing that this is not forecast to be a hurricane when it gets to the CPAC area of responsibility. By then it should be a decaying tropical storm.

Also, almost all of the indicators the atmosphere has to offer say no El Nino is present.

Trades are stronger than normal
Cloudiness near the date line is below normal
SST's, especially in the east are below normal
Subsurface temps aren't warming appreciably
SOI is rebounding from negative values to zero now

In summary, I don't think there is any implicit or explicit relationship between east-pac to central pacific crossover systems and a continuation of El Nino.

Also, I think it is safe to say there is no El Nino, there is no El Nino developing, and the atmosphere is not behaving as if an El Nino is present.

MW

[Frank2]

Well, not overreacting, but, perhaps I'm over-simplifying...

Still, sometimes looking at things the simple way is the better way to view things...

I was never a meteorologist, never pretended to be one - not to post my entire life on the Internet (which is a bad idea for anyone these days), I was in a paraprofessional position when at the NHC, so, with that in mind...

I still don't agree with today's press release - making a hurricane is similar to baking a good cake - if all of the ingredients are not there, or, are in the wrong quantity, either nothing will happen, or, it will not turn out as planned.

There are just too many variables in weather for anyone to make a sure statement, and, is why our old Directors at the NHC and HRD stayed away from the "this is going to happen this season" business - just too uncertain, and, made them too easy a target if things didn't go as planned...

Frank

[hurricanetrack]

“Today’s El Niño/La Niña forecast from the Climate Prediction Center indicates a slightly greater than 50 percent probability that La Niña will form during the peak of the hurricane season. But more importantly, we are already observing wind patterns similar to those created by La Niña across the tropical Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea that encourage tropical cyclone development. The conditions are ripe for an above-normal season.”

[Steve]

>>There are just too many variables in weather for anyone to make a sure statement, and, is why our old Directors at the NHC and HRD stayed away from the "this is going to happen this season" business - just too uncertain, and, made them too easy a target if things didn't go as planned...

While I completely understand what you're saying, the title of the thread is "El Nino Continuing?" when we're not even in an El Nino pattern. The SSTA's in the Pacific don't look remotely like an El Nino. There is a slight bit of above average temperatures in the islands east of Austrailia, but if anything, the majority of the basin looks like it's more or less neutral to weak la nina.

Yesterday's global SSTA's:

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

[Frank2]

That is true - I was answering an earlier comment which mentioned that I was over-reacting to the Flossie situation...

Still, Hawaiian hurricanes are per usual in El Nino conditions, and, is why I made the initial comment (or question)...

I think it's important to note, per NOAA's statement, that there is a slightly more than 50% chance of an La Nina forming - or, about 50-50, so, it remains to be seen, though I will guess and say, from life experiences, that this seems to be a case of timing, especially if this does take place later than earlier...

As we used to say at the NHC - with 50-50 odds, a person can only be half wrong!

LOL

[Brent]

That is true - I was answering an earlier comment which mentioned that I was over-reacting to the Flossie situation...

Still, Hawaiian hurricanes are per usual in El Nino conditions, and, is why I made the initial comment (or question)...

I think it's important to note, per NOAA's statement, that there is a slightly more than 50% chance of an La Nina forming - or, about 50-50, so, it remains to be seen...

As we used to say at the NHC - with 50-50 odds, a person can only be half wrong!

LOL

2005 was a normal year wasn't it? and we had plenty of late-season storms then. I don't think it really matters whether La Nina happens or not, the point is there is not an El Nino.

[Frank2]

Well, normal in the sense that there wasn't an El Nino - though it did start to form toward the end of the season...

[MWatkins]

Odds.

Odds are 50/50 that a Nina develops. The other 50% is for neutral conditions.

According to the latest NOAA report from some very knowledgable people, many of which are at the NHC or HRD now, there is an 85% chance of an above-normal season (ACE values above 117%)...with the caveat that if Nina develops we could see a busy season with ACE values near 200%.

I don't see where there is a coinflip chance of a normal season and there is no chance of a nino developing at all.

Let's put it this way. If you give me 50/50 odds of winning the pot when we play poker...I would consider moving all my chips in but probably wouldn't. If you give me an 85% chance to win, I'll move my chips in every single time.

MW

[Ptarmigan]

I don't think we should just look at El Nino as a factor for tropical cyclone development. Also, we should look at how the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Pacific/North American Pattern, Monsoons, Quasi-Biennial Zonal Wind Oscillation, Madsen-Julian Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, Antartica Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole. Also, we should look at pressure anomalies as well.

[Frank2]

Well, Mike, you can't blame me for being an optimist - today was the first day that one of my per usual gas stations had all three grades below $3 - I'd be a sad thing if a busy Gulf season, along with the human suffering this would bring, forces the price up another $1 or $2 a gallon (very possible)...

As for those folks currently at the NHC - sure, they are very knowledgeable in an academic sense, and, are entitled to say what they think correct, but, I'm a person that believes more in common sense, since that is where inspiration often comes from - and we know where that comes from...

Speaking of common sense - as noted in the Apollo space program documentaries - almost no one involved had an education higher than a 4-year college degree (which were likely the result of very practical Bachelor of Science curriculums, as was often the case back then), but, as also mentioned, they had an abundance of good common sense, and, that seemed to help them to make daring decisions that very possibly could or would not be made today...

Not to go on, but, I recall a shuttle flight to capture and repair a satellite, but, the two astronauts assigned the duty were having a very difficult time trying to grab the slow-spinning satellite. Many at Mission Control gave this or that solution to the problem - until one of the crew had the inspiration, as he said it was, "to use three" (as in three crew members). Needless to say, Houston allowed them to try this very simple method, and it worked on the first try - I'd like to think that God inspired them with a very practical solution to a very difficult problem...

Frank