NOAA August Outlook=13-16 named storms

[cycloneye]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2905.htm





Any comments about the August outlook from NOAA are welcomed.

[windstorm99]

If there right activity should be fast and furious soon.

[hial2]

All I have to say is WOW!...They must expect for conditions to drastically change..If the forecast pans out, things will get hectic soon...I can hear the oil companies salivating..

[skysummit]

Well, still an official above normal season in store. I honestly thought they'd lower it to near 11 named storms. The peak of the season should be nonstop with these numbers.

[HURAKAN]

If there right activity should be fast and furious soon.

If we take 2001 as an example, by this time there were only two named storms, Allison and Barry, and the season ended with 15 storms.

The good news is that the best is yet to come!!

[cycloneye]

Well, still an official above normal season in store. I honestly thought they'd lower it to near 11 named storms. The peak of the season should be nonstop with these numbers.

I see a late active 2007 season,meaning active September,October and yes November.

[HURAKAN]

This is the old forecast. Notice that they are now more convinced of an above average season.

[hial2]

I see a late active 2007 season,meaning active September,October and yes November.

It does not bode well for Florida...

[Frank2]

Ugh - we'll see, though I hope the quiet continues - it's been nice to see gas prices on the way down over the past few weeks...

[gatorcane]

Well, still an official above normal season in store. I honestly thought they'd lower it to near 11 named storms. The peak of the season should be nonstop with these numbers.

I see a late active 2007 season,meaning active September,October and yes November.

Agreed. With a possible developing weak la nina and plenty of warm oceanic content that has been untapped this season, I think we will see things ramp up starting in late Aug but the activity will continue through October.

[miamicanes177]

NOAA is much more certain than they were in May that this will be an above season. There confidence increased from 75% in May to 85% in August. I agree and believe this could be a horrible next 2 months.

[DESTRUCTION5]

All i can say is WOW...Confidence is high..

[MWatkins]

Here's the link to the technical discussion for the outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... cane.shtml

MW

[storms in NC]

So Big change in the weather pattern?

[cycloneye]

3. Uncertainties in the Outlook

There are two unrelated sources of uncertainty in this forecast. The first is whether or not La Niña will develop and if so, how strong it will become. Even with ENSO-neutral conditions, the combination of an active hurricane era with the ongoing La Niña-like pattern of tropical convection and winds produces a very high probability of an above-normal season. The development of La Niña increases the probability for a hyperactive season with activity in the upper end of the predicted range.

The second source of uncertainty is whether conditions over the eastern tropical Atlantic will continue to become increasingly conducive for hurricane formation. Atmospheric conditions in that region are already consistent with other above-normal seasons, and the associated SSTs have returned to above-average in many areas. However, the latest Climate Forecast System (CFS) forecast from the NOAA Environmental Monitoring Center indicates a continuation during ASO of near-average temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic, suggesting atmospheric conditions might be slightly less conducive to hurricane formation than current trends indicate.


Above is the portion from the outlook that relates to the uncertainties.

[canegrl04]

Usually as the season progresses,and it is very slow,they lower the amount of storms.What are they seeing the rest of the season that we aren't?

[HURAKAN]

Looking back to the "Outlook Probabilities" from 2001 - 2007, only the August forecast of 2005 has a higher level of certainty.

[hial2]

Typical conditions usually = 2 to 4 strikes in CONUS...this is the closest I remember NOAA forecasting the possibility of storm strike...though theyre clear that they cant forecast exactly where..my question is WHERE do they USUALLY strike under the forecast conditions? Anyone knows where to find that info??

[dwg71]

Typical conditions usually = 2 to 4 strikes in CONUS...this is the closest I remember NOAA forecasting the possibility of storm strike...though theyre clear that they cant forecast exactly where..my question is WHERE do they USUALLY strike under the forecast conditions? Anyone knows where to find that info??

I would think a later activity season would mean eastern gulf, florida, and east coast. Western Gulf is usually closed after 10/1. Jerry in 89 is the only Texas cane I can recall that late in the season, it was a cat 1.

[windstorm99]

3. Uncertainties in the Outlook

There are two unrelated sources of uncertainty in this forecast. The first is whether or not La Niña will develop and if so, how strong it will become. Even with ENSO-neutral conditions, the combination of an active hurricane era with the ongoing La Niña-like pattern of tropical convection and winds produces a very high probability of an above-normal season. The development of La Niña increases the probability for a hyperactive season with activity in the upper end of the predicted range.

The second source of uncertainty is whether conditions over the eastern tropical Atlantic will continue to become increasingly conducive for hurricane formation. Atmospheric conditions in that region are already consistent with other above-normal seasons, and the associated SSTs have returned to above-average in many areas. However, the latest Climate Forecast System (CFS) forecast from the NOAA Environmental Monitoring Center indicates a continuation during ASO of near-average temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic, suggesting atmospheric conditions might be slightly less conducive to hurricane formation than current trends indicate.