GFS continues to develop African wave

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#81 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 09, 2007 8:55 am

windstorm99 wrote:
skysummit wrote:
gatorcane wrote:I have to say I am getting a *little* ancy considering the GFS is consistently targeting SE Florida. Even though it is 300 hours out it is AT LEAST consistent on its prediction.


What? It has been no where near consistent on Florida. It's been every where from the Yucatan to New York over the past many runs.


Actually gatorcane is right the GFS has put a tropical cyclone in florida in its runs the past couple of days.Ive seen it atleast 3-5 times.


Yes, it's been there, but has not been consistent with it. I agree it HAS been consistent switching back and forth from Florida to the northeast though. I've been watching every run since it has been showing this storm...about 11 runs in a row now. It's about half and half breaking the ridge and building the ridge, which is normal for that far out.
0 likes   

User avatar
windstorm99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1578
Age: 47
Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
Location: Miami, Florida
Contact:

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#82 Postby windstorm99 » Thu Aug 09, 2007 8:58 am

Yep...With all the SAL out in the eastern atlantic i see no worries through next week.
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10160
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#83 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 09, 2007 9:08 am

Could somebody post the link for the GFS 384hr loop. Thanks...
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6110
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#84 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Aug 09, 2007 9:12 am

If the GFS is consistent in anything, its the fact that it continuously develops this low coming off africa..now the UKMET has it happening, soon the others could be forecast development too. But the SAL is not strong...its large, but weak...a developing system would probably be slowed, but not killed. And that "U" shape Frank pointed out is probably because of a ULL in the middle of the Atlantic, though im not totally sure
0 likes   

User avatar
Weatherfreak14
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC
Contact:

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#85 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Thu Aug 09, 2007 10:07 am

Blown_away wrote:Could somebody post the link for the GFS 384hr loop. Thanks...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_ten_m_loop.shtml
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#86 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 09, 2007 10:19 am

I've seen enough to risk going with Derek and discounting GFS' storm. The SAL has completely evaporated all convection in the ITCZ. All waves exiting Africa have dissipated badly. Now that I've stuck my neck out it will probably form, but I'm convinced the models are failing to read the wicked SAL atmospheric that is currently denuding the entire basin. It is just overall negative out there. I think we'll have to wait past August 15th. I will allow that perhaps this one will suffer on its ride across and form near the Caribbean - but I doubt it.
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#87 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 09, 2007 10:21 am

The SAL will NOT be a problem for this wave/low exiting friday afternoon...It's far enough south and the enviromental conditions are very favorable for development..
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#88 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 09, 2007 10:27 am

The models have no skill at predicting mid level moisture and some that I have closely analyzed, there is a high bias to the moisture fields
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#89 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 09, 2007 10:28 am

and evironmental conditions are not even close to very favorable for development. Not with the strong SAL, and weak monsoon trough
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10160
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#90 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 09, 2007 10:39 am

The GFS is setting a classic CV storm for the SE. The storm crosses at 20N/60W, which is in the Hebert Box, then moves over Florida, almost where Frances hit then skirts up the EC. These are the storms we have to wait until about 24 hours out to know if the ridge will be strong enough to carry the storm into FL or if the ridge will weaken a little allowing the storm to goto the Carolinas, I think this is why the model continues to flop back and forth from FL to Carolinas. Classic Florida vs Carolina's in the making on this board. I hope we have a long tracker that recurves just before hitting the CONUS.
0 likes   

User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#91 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 09, 2007 10:49 am

12z GFS rolling out...still consistent. It has the wave moving offshore within 30 hours now.
0 likes   

User avatar
windstorm99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1578
Age: 47
Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
Location: Miami, Florida
Contact:

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#92 Postby windstorm99 » Thu Aug 09, 2007 10:51 am

Yep out to 42hrs less see if it continues with the frances like system.
0 likes   

User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#93 Postby x-y-no » Thu Aug 09, 2007 10:54 am

windstorm99 wrote:Yep out to 42hrs less see if it continues with the frances like system.


Weakens it from 1008mb to 1012mb by 60 hours.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#94 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 09, 2007 10:58 am

x-y-no wrote:
windstorm99 wrote:Yep out to 42hrs less see if it continues with the frances like system.


Weakens it from 1008mb to 1012mb by 60 hours.


back stronger at 72..lol
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#95 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 09, 2007 10:59 am

0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#96 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 09, 2007 11:03 am

Where will the GFS end up today...We've had S fl, then NC, then the Yucatan, then NYC, then back to Florida on the last run....Hmmm I thinks its time for an out to sea run.... :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6110
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#97 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Aug 09, 2007 11:03 am

Ivanhater wrote:
x-y-no wrote:
windstorm99 wrote:Yep out to 42hrs less see if it continues with the frances like system.


Weakens it from 1008mb to 1012mb by 60 hours.


back stronger at 72..lol

Yup..did the same thing during the 0z last night, and I think the 6z also
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#98 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 09, 2007 11:05 am

0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#99 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Aug 09, 2007 11:06 am

I could be incorrect, but this run is initializing the upper-air environment very nicely - thus far, it appears to be the most realistic solution. It has been correctly analyzing the position of the low-level and 500 mbar ridges - it nails the pattern progression (troughs) over the CONUS. It actually depicts the current trough's wavelength near the Caribbean, too. I would give more credit to the GFS, especially because of the wave's close proximity to the coast within 24 hours. I think we may see a credible short-range solution from this run - I think it could initialize the sfc low correctly, too. I think we can trust this run for the first time, IMO.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: GFS continues development off Africa 2 days and counting!

#100 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 09, 2007 11:15 am

108...
Image
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 23 guests