Is Complacency Starting to Set In?

[Derek Ortt]

Andrew formed at 37W... it was a CV hurricane

[DanKellFla]

Complacent? well, I just used my the gas in my garage that was 2 months old, but other than that my neighbors are not complacent. After a few years of preparing, we have most of what we need to prepare and survive a storm already. We trimmed our trees before it got so &%$# hot. I think it is that we are just used to being prepared down here so it really isn't the same panic it was a few years ago. Now all we do is get out our kits, charge up the batteries and put up our shutters.

[JTD]

I'm leaning heavily towards this season being a repeat of 2006 atm and look at the winter-like conditions in the Atlantic right now. Also, just look at years like 2003 and 2004. We don't seem to be heading towards that at all this year. One concern is 2001. It didn't get going until September that year and was a very active year.

[fci]

Comments about the fact that we have had 3 named storms so far this year may be a little less relevant considering that 2 of the named stoms may not have received names years ago.

What I mean is the Andrea probably gets ignored years ago, not "Tropical" enough to get named and Chantal may not even get a name for as short lived as she was and where she formed.

So, many years ago we might have only recorded 1 named storm so far which would be interpreted as a pretty quiet season even for August 7th.

Having said that; many who posted above are correct.
It only takes one storm to make a season pretty frightening (exhibit Andrew in late August).

Number of named storms is pretty irrelevant when you consider an "Andrew" type storm and you live where it comes ashore...

[Frank2]

Comments about the fact that we have had 3 named storms so far this year may be a little less relevant considering that 2 of the named stoms may not have received names years ago.

I agree - only Chantal was a true tropical storm (or at least looked like one for a few hours), however, the A & B systems were so sheared that it was almost hard to discern whether they were a storm or not...

[Stormcenter]

No I don't think anyone is letting their guard down.
There is still a lot of the 2007 season left but there are encouraging signs
that it won't be as active as once thought.

[weatherwoman]

Anyone who has ever watched the tropics will know that we are right on target! its the begginning of Aug used to you never even heard the word hurricane until sept so no we are not over yet you can almost rest asure that by the mid of oct its about over but we are just beginning in fact two more weeks and then let people say its over they will crying in their shoes

[DESTRUCTION5]

No one on this board is complacent and never will be..Its the non wx lovers that are ALWAYS complacent..

[Jagno]

Historically the third storm of the year is formed around August 12, and this season the third storm “Chantal” was formed on July 31. So, I’m not thinking that this season could be cancelled. The season is running normally as we can expect.

Also, we are in the very first few days of August, in the past 120 years only 60 storms was formed in the Atlantic in the first 10 days of this month, this mean an average of .5 storms per year.

Let the weeks go and maybe we can have an explosive end of month. As gatorcane said, we need to have the guard up!

But historically there are only 10 named storms in a season, so if this year is normal to date, then we should expect normalcy all season? I dont know, but big numbers were predicted by lots of people for this year.

Exactly how do you "have the guard up"? What are people now doing differently that they would be doing if we have had 10 storms to date?

Having your guard up is doing the following and then some:
(1) Checking this site daily to stay on top of quickly developing storms.
(2) Doing necessary repairs and bracing as needed to minimize wind damage.
(3) Making sure that you have adequate supplies of gas, food & water on hand
(4) Running your generator monthly at capacity to keep it in working order. Maintaining it!
(5) Updating your household inventory so that it's current (Valuable Lesson Learned)
(6) Updating your emergency contact list with directions for family and friends.
(7) Keeping trees trimmed back away from equipment and structures
(8) Always keeping your vehicle in good working order.
(9) Maintaining/Adding to a good "cash" stash on hand

This list could go on for days but most of it is already covered in the Hurricane Preps forum.

[dwg71]

Historically the third storm of the year is formed around August 12, and this season the third storm “Chantal” was formed on July 31. So, I’m not thinking that this season could be cancelled. The season is running normally as we can expect.

Also, we are in the very first few days of August, in the past 120 years only 60 storms was formed in the Atlantic in the first 10 days of this month, this mean an average of .5 storms per year.

Let the weeks go and maybe we can have an explosive end of month. As gatorcane said, we need to have the guard up!

But historically there are only 10 named storms in a season, so if this year is normal to date, then we should expect normalcy all season? I dont know, but big numbers were predicted by lots of people for this year.

Exactly how do you "have the guard up"? What are people now doing differently that they would be doing if we have had 10 storms to date?

Having your guard up is doing the following and then some:
(1) Checking this site daily to stay on top of quickly developing storms.
(2) Doing necessary repairs and bracing as needed to minimize wind damage.
(3) Making sure that you have adequate supplies of gas, food & water on hand
(4) Running your generator monthly at capacity to keep it in working order. Maintaining it!
(5) Updating your household inventory so that it's current (Valuable Lesson Learned)
(6) Updating your emergency contact list with directions for family and friends.
(7) Keeping trees trimmed back away from equipment and structures
(8) Always keeping your vehicle in good working order.
(9) Maintaining/Adding to a good "cash" stash on hand

This list could go on for days but most of it is already covered in the Hurricane Preps forum.

1. We had 400+ people on line after Katrina, there are millions along the coast, checking in here daily is not required to being prepared, if everyone on the coast checked in daily the site would crash. Our local media will keep everyone informed, trust me.
2-9 . These are things that should be done prior to the season, if you wait until a storm is formed to do these things its too late.

All you need to do is have a good Hurricane Plan and have your supplies in place come June 1st. Otherwise, you dont really need to do much other than wait for a storm to form. The fact that its been a quiet season so far and people aren't scouring over every tropical wave does not mean they are not prepared. I'm enjoying my summer. I saw first hand what panic, hype, fear and being unprepared can do with the evacuation for Rita. People learned their lessons from Katrina and Rita and they dont have a plan in place now, shame on you.

People have said we have had three "tropical storms" (notice quotes) so far which is very normal for this time of year, but in reality we have only had 48 hours of TS activity spread out over 3 "storms", which is less than a day each on average. That is well below average.

[Dean4Storms]

Andrew formed at 37W... it was a CV hurricane

Yep, for some reason I was thinking Andrew didn't become a TC until it really exploded once it was north of the Islands. I forgot that it did become a TS way out in the mid Atlantic and almost became history from strong SW shear. Sorry about that.

[Opal storm]

After Ivan and Dennis, it's going to be another 10 years before I get complacent.

[wobblehead]

We're in a catch 22. Some folk view last years predictions as a bust so if this year turns out the same then possibly folks could become complacent. A light season this year would be a good thing however it might be a bad thing for public perception of future seasons forecast.
As for me I never turn my back to the Gulf.

[boca]

Not really but the Azores high has to weaken some before a storm will ever form out there.

[DanKellFla]

We're in a catch 22. Some folk view last years predictions as a bust so if this year turns out the same then possibly folks could become complacent. A light season this year would be a good thing however it might be a bad thing for public perception of future seasons forecast.
As for me I never turn my back to the Gulf.

Very true, but as time goes by, seasonal predicitons will get better. It wasn't that long ago when people wouldn't take the path predicitons too seriously. Now, most people do. The science has to start somewhere, and more often than not, it is at the beginning. It make take a decade or more, but the seasonal predicitons will get better.