System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[Sjones]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090909
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[vaffie]

In the next hour or so expect to see the beginning of a new convective outburst at 16N, 70.2W. This general area has only low clouds right now, and it also has the lowest pressure--of about 1011 mb, and the highest winds--of close to 30 knots--based on quikscat and buoy and ship reports. There is a weak broad and open circulation around this location right now that one can see on IR and visible satellite.

[Meso]

the 12z NAM

[Sanibel]

Not seeing anything out there that would verify this.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Whatever gets in the Gulf the next 2 weeks will be Mexico storms as 500 High is going nowhere.

[TSmith274]

Whatever gets in the Gulf the next 2 weeks will be Mexico storms as 500 High is going nowhere.

That's what I like to hear.

[Aric Dunn]

In the next hour or so expect to see the beginning of a new convective outburst at 16N, 70.2W. This general area has only low clouds right now, and it also has the lowest pressure--of about 1011 mb, and the highest winds--of close to 30 knots--based on quikscat and buoy and ship reports. There is a weak broad and open circulation around this location right now that one can see on IR and visible satellite.

you are right. except im not going to jump on the circulation there yet, but that general area is where to watch later today and tonight i posted a long post in the other thread i guess i should have posted it here

[Steve]

>>Not seeing anything out there that would verify this.

Well considering that nearly every model has activity penned near or over the Yucatan, so it kind remains to be seen. Also, numerous NWS offices have noted (either this thread or the long term models thread) "action" in or near the Yucatan in the 4-5 day range - possibly due to that inverted trough over the Caribbean.

I agree with KFDM though. It's becoming more and more apparent that in the next 7-10 days, anything in the Gulf or Western Caribbean is going to basically head due west - slightly more north than where 99L went in (Central America). This would be typical pattern evolution leading to some point down the line where systems coming in nudge things a little farther to the north or northwest between pulses in the Atlantic Ridging (which if it builds like I think it's going to build - and I've been pretty good from 2 weeks out on this so far), should be pretty strong for the most part over August and at least early September.

Steve

[Ivanhater]

Whatever gets in the Gulf the next 2 weeks will be Mexico storms as 500 High is going nowhere.

Im sorry...but how can you say that for 2 weeks out?I doubt that the high will sit there for that long without some sort of weakness here and there...2 weeks is a long time in the tropics...but hey with temps reaching 100 this weekend in Pensacola with the heat index even higher...who knows

[Extremeweatherguy]

Whatever gets in the Gulf the next 2 weeks will be Mexico storms as 500 High is going nowhere.

Im sorry...but how can you say that for 2 weeks out?I doubt that the high will sit there for that long without some sort of weakness here and there...2 weeks is a long time in the tropics...but hey with temps reaching 100 this weekend in Pensacola with the heat index even higher...who knows

well this is just one mets opinion too. There are other mets out there that would disagree. I think for the next few days at least though, he is probably right. However, all it will take is the movement of the high one way or another for just a few days to open the door for a possible U.S. landfall. Let's just hope that doesn't happen.

[Ivanhater]

Whatever gets in the Gulf the next 2 weeks will be Mexico storms as 500 High is going nowhere.

Im sorry...but how can you say that for 2 weeks out?I doubt that the high will sit there for that long without some sort of weakness here and there...2 weeks is a long time in the tropics...but hey with temps reaching 100 this weekend in Pensacola with the heat index even higher...who knows

well this is just one mets opinion too. There are other mets out there that would disagree. I think for the next few days at least though, he is probably right. However, all it will take is the movement of the high one way or another for just a few days to open the door for a possible U.S. landfall. Let's just hope that doesn't happen.

Exactly

[southerngale]

Whatever gets in the Gulf the next 2 weeks will be Mexico storms as 500 High is going nowhere.

Ok, I'm gonna hold you to that. *marking my calendar*

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest from JB...

He is saying that if something develops in the NW Caribbean south of the Yucatan that it would probably stay west, but that if it forms toward the northern Yucatan or in the southern GOM that it would likely aim for the Texas Gulf Coast next week.

[mgpetre]

Where do you read up on JB's latest thoughts?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Where do you read up on JB's latest thoughts?

I just watched his latest "big dog" video on the pro site.

[Steve]

You have to be a subscriber, and that IMHO, cuts our own throats which is why I vowed never to pay for that site again. Should JB ever go out on his own, I would consider supporting him. But I would not support Accuweather with any financial backing after what they tried to do.

>>There are other mets out there that would disagree. I think for the next few days at least though, he is probably right.

You can't go wrong with that. But it might be more than the next few days which reminds me, I need to go to the JTWC and see what they're doing with 91W (if a forecast track is out yet).

Alright, remnants of Pabuk actually track off to the almost due SSW. Remnants of Wutip hook back through China in a pretty sharp angle. Being that both are "remnants", it's hard to say if they will offer anything in the way of teleconnections for the Atlantic after the 18th or 19th. Maybe a ridge with a couple of breaks? I guess we're going to have to wait and see if Invests 91W, 93W or 94W offer any more substantial clues. Obviously there is a lot of activity (most of it minimal) in the WPAC.

Steve

[DrewFL]

I'm not sure where this post belongs.....which thread. It is not long-range....so I'm putting it here. Thought it would be of interest.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1016 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2007

FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH THE NAM DEVELOPS THE
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN INTO A TD LOOKING FEATURE (VERY
POOR PERFORMANCE SO FAR THIS SEASON) TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN LATE SUNDAY AND GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGE
FROM NM TO AL IF ANYTHING DEVELOPED IT SHOULD GO WEST INTO MEXICO
WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT HERE...PERHAPS SOME SWELL.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Like i said the High is going nowhere anythime soon. These Highs start feeding off the warming each day and the drying of the ground and i just don't see it moving much the next 7-10 days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm not sure where this post belongs.....which thread. It is not long-range....so I'm putting it here. Thought it would be of interest.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1016 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2007

FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH THE NAM DEVELOPS THE
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN INTO A TD LOOKING FEATURE (VERY
POOR PERFORMANCE SO FAR THIS SEASON) TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN LATE SUNDAY AND GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGE
FROM NM TO AL IF ANYTHING DEVELOPED IT SHOULD GO WEST INTO MEXICO
WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT HERE...PERHAPS SOME SWELL.

Hmm. that is interesting. I guess that is the scenario to hope for, but It really all depends on where the system actually develops. If it develops south like the NAM is showing, then I agree that this has Mexico written all over it. However, if it develops further north (which is JBs worry) in the southern GOM, then I think we will have to watch the system much more closely along the TX Gulf coast. I will not lean one way or another though until something actually forms (IF something even does).

update: I just watched JBs "long ranger" video, and the reason he thinks the system may come further north is because he thinks the ridge may break down some and move further east next week (which would make sense since the driest and warmest air is over the east already), and as this happens the energy in the GOM will have a more north of west motion to it and could affect the Texas Gulf coast.

[Sanibel]

Well, that weak, loose convection in the eastern Caribbean is lined-up for the timing. We'll see if the caribbean is finally able to form something.