NOAA August Outlook=13-16 named storms

[Hyperstorm]

Not a surprise here...As I've been saying this is the norm for seasons in the Atlantic since 1995...LATE activity. Look back at all the years since 1995 and the majority of them didn't get started until mid-August or later. If La Nina develops expect a WILD (and that could be an understatement) October and possibly November, since La Nina tends to equal late starts, but explosive endings. I could see a Mitch-Michelle-type storm developing late in October or November.

I see the pattern is changing at this time with the vigorous system exiting Africa...

[Stormcenter]

If there right activity should be fast and furious soon.

If we take 2001 as an example, by this time there were only two named storms, Allison and Barry, and the season ended with 15 storms.

The good news is that the best is yet to come!!

I'm sorry but I would NOT refer to any increase in hurricane activity and the chance for death and destruction as "The Good News Is The Best Is Yet To Come". I know some of you get excited about this and I did until 2004 & 2005. But now dread hurricane season after what I have seen. I'm crossing my fingers and toes this forecast is a flop in 2007.

[HURAKAN]

If there right activity should be fast and furious soon.

If we take 2001 as an example, by this time there were only two named storms, Allison and Barry, and the season ended with 15 storms.

The good news is that the best is yet to come!!

I'm sorry but I would NOT refer to any increase in hurricane activity and the chance for death and destruction as "The Good News Is The Best Is Yet To Come". I know some of you get excited about this and I did until 2004 & 2005. But now dread hurricane season after what I have seen. I'm crossing my fingers and toes this forecast is a flop in 2007.

The only thing that we can do is get ready and hope for the best. I'm fully aware of the damage potential of hurricanes, but also like to track them.

[JTD]

The AP has this played all wrong. They are playing this as if NOAA is indicating that this season will not be very active when that's not what they said at all. Reading their article if I were uneducated, I'd assume that 2007 was going to be quiet.

Fewer hurricanes in 2007

MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- Government forecasters minimally reduced their prediction for the Atlantic hurricane season Thursday, saying up to nine hurricanes and up to 16 tropical storms are expected to form.


This season has been tame, but August typically marks the start of the most frenetic months of Atlantic weather.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration maintained its estimate that three to five of the hurricanes would be strong. The original report forecast up to 17 tropical storms, with up to 10 becoming hurricanes.

Federal forecasters' move Thursday follows that of Colorado State University hurricane researcher William Gray, who slightly lowered his forecast last week.

Gray's initial projection called for 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, five of them intense. He revised it to 15 named storms and eight hurricanes, four of them intense.

After the battering by storms Katrina and Rita in 2005 there were widespread fears last summer of another powerful storm striking, but the unexpected development of El Nino -- the periodic warming of Pacific Ocean waters that affects wind patters and tends to result in fewer Atlantic storms -- helped dampen conditions.

No destructive storms hit the U.S. last year, but forecasters warned this year that El Nino is over, which could prompt conditions that encourage the development of additional storms.

[windstorm99]

The AP has this played all wrong. They are playing this as if NOAA is indicating that this season will not be very active when that's not what they said at all:

Fewer hurricanes in 2007

MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- Government forecasters minimally reduced their prediction for the Atlantic hurricane season Thursday, saying up to nine hurricanes and up to 16 tropical storms are expected to form.


This season has been tame, but August typically marks the start of the most frenetic months of Atlantic weather.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration maintained its estimate that three to five of the hurricanes would be strong. The original report forecast up to 17 tropical storms, with up to 10 becoming hurricanes.

Wow....Hope this does not put to sleep as we approach the meat of the season.

[Frank2]

I agree with stormcenter - I know many like to track 'em, but, when we see what happened after Katrina and the panic that took hold over Hurricane Rita, we can only hope and pray that this will not happen again...

As mentioned yesterday - it this were a perfect world, cyclones would only sit and spin harmlessly far out over an empty sea, but, we all know that none of this is true...

[HURAKAN]

The AP has this played all wrong. They are playing this as if NOAA is indicating that this season will not be very active when that's not what they said at all:

Fewer hurricanes in 2007

MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- Government forecasters minimally reduced their prediction for the Atlantic hurricane season Thursday, saying up to nine hurricanes and up to 16 tropical storms are expected to form.


This season has been tame, but August typically marks the start of the most frenetic months of Atlantic weather.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration maintained its estimate that three to five of the hurricanes would be strong. The original report forecast up to 17 tropical storms, with up to 10 becoming hurricanes.

Wow....Hope this does not put to sleep as we approach the meat of the season.

The NHC (TPC) should issue the outlook and also a press report indicating exactly what they mean with the changes. This will put an end to all the media speculations. They just see 17 and now 16 and say, 2007 WILL BE BETTER THAN ANTICIPATED BEFORE. Which is wrong to say.

[Sanibel]

They look like they are setting themselves up for another 2006-like bust.

[dwg71]

So 10 - 13 more storms with 7-9 of them being Hurricanes and 3 - 5 of those being majors. Low side 10/7/3 seems reasonable. 13/9/5 seems high, escpecially the majors. In 2005 with the ripest of conditions we "only" had 5 majors from August 8th on, and that was with 19 more storms.

I'm not buying it yet.

8-9 more named storms with 5-6 hurricanes and 2-3 majors seems more realistic at this time.

[miamicanes177]

8-9 named storms with 5-6 hurricanes and 2-3 majors seems more realistic at this time.

According to the guys at NOAA your forecast has a 10% chance of being correct. Good luck with it!

[windstorm99]

So 10 - 13 more storms with 7-9 of them being Hurricanes and 3 - 5 of those being majors. Low side 10/7/3 seems reasonable. 13/9/5 seems high, escpecially the majors. In 2005 with the ripest of conditions we "only" had 5 majors from August 8th on, and that was with 19 more storms.

I'm not buying it yet.

8-9 named storms with 5-6 hurricanes and 2-3 majors seems more realistic at this time.

Not buying it....Why?Cause we have had very little activity in june and july when during any normal season those months produce little to no activity.Things should ramp up as we get later into the season as it would normally do in a normal season.The chances of seeing something out there increase everyday as move deeper into things.

2005 should NOT be used as an example for any season a it was an anomaly that will not be seen for a very long time.

[flwxwatcher]

Then again years like 1969, which had a weak El Nino have happened . An active year with several major hurricanes which didn't get really going until mid August and ran late . We should know in about 2 months

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[Weatherfreak14]

They look like they are setting themselves up for another 2006-like bust.

And what can you base that statment on? right maybe yes, we are having a slow start to a season but the models are showing a lot more favorible envirment ahead. Like i said before the SAL is out there as usual but not too strong, we may not see 16 named storms but 13 sounds reasonible right now. Its time to fasten our seat belts because conditions are turning more favorible as we speak right now.

[cpdaman]

wow you would think with the seriousness of the topic, the AP would not mislead the public but either they are dumb or optomistic to the point of losing credibility ( actually they don't have much left) by naming the story Fewer hurricanes in 2007 i mean COME ON!


what is intresting to me is that i think i will be taught a great deal by the finish of the season.
I have contended that nobody can really forecast hurricane season's accurately except in a obvious El nino. well hurrakan says this is the only time besides 2005 that the NHC has had such a high level of confidence in an above average season, and at this juncture none the less.

We shall see if they (THE NHC) are the cream of the crop in regards to seasonal hurricane forecasts or wether they are just trying to forecast the unforecastable

[Opal storm]

If there right activity should be fast and furious soon.

If we take 2001 as an example, by this time there were only two named storms, Allison and Barry, and the season ended with 15 storms.

The good news is that the best is yet to come!!

I'm sorry but I would NOT refer to any increase in hurricane activity and the chance for death and destruction as "The Good News Is The Best Is Yet To Come". I know some of you get excited about this and I did until 2004 & 2005. But now dread hurricane season after what I have seen. I'm crossing my fingers and toes this forecast is a flop in 2007.

Where in his post did he say death and destruction is good news? Sort of shoving words down his throat aren't ya? Nobody here wants another Katrina or Rita but after all this is TALKIN TROPICS... most of us look forward to some storms to discuss about and track.

Anyways, I'm not really surprised by NOAA's numbers. It's only early August and the bulk of the season is coming up, I think too many people have judged this season based solely on June/July activity.

[DanKellFla]

The first graphic shows a shaded area near the equator. Does that indicate that hurricanes are more likely to form there?

Also, we have all seen quiet times followed multiple storms forming in a short period of time. In three weeks, there could be two or three storms out there to track, or go buy gas for

[AnnularCane]

The AP has this played all wrong. They are playing this as if NOAA is indicating that this season will not be very active when that's not what they said at all. Reading their article if I were uneducated, I'd assume that 2007 was going to be quiet.

Fewer hurricanes in 2007

MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- Government forecasters minimally reduced their prediction for the Atlantic hurricane season Thursday, saying up to nine hurricanes and up to 16 tropical storms are expected to form.


This season has been tame, but August typically marks the start of the most frenetic months of Atlantic weather.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration maintained its estimate that three to five of the hurricanes would be strong. The original report forecast up to 17 tropical storms, with up to 10 becoming hurricanes.

Federal forecasters' move Thursday follows that of Colorado State University hurricane researcher William Gray, who slightly lowered his forecast last week.

Gray's initial projection called for 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, five of them intense. He revised it to 15 named storms and eight hurricanes, four of them intense.

After the battering by storms Katrina and Rita in 2005 there were widespread fears last summer of another powerful storm striking, but the unexpected development of El Nino -- the periodic warming of Pacific Ocean waters that affects wind patters and tends to result in fewer Atlantic storms -- helped dampen conditions.

No destructive storms hit the U.S. last year, but forecasters warned this year that El Nino is over, which could prompt conditions that encourage the development of additional storms.

They do that on the news too. Every time the forecast is downgraded slightly, the local media talks about what good news it is. They did that again this time.

[dwg71]

So 10 - 13 more storms with 7-9 of them being Hurricanes and 3 - 5 of those being majors. Low side 10/7/3 seems reasonable. 13/9/5 seems high, escpecially the majors. In 2005 with the ripest of conditions we "only" had 5 majors from August 8th on, and that was with 19 more storms.

I'm not buying it yet.

8-9 named storms with 5-6 hurricanes and 2-3 majors seems more realistic at this time.

Not buying it....Why?Cause we have had very little activity in june and july when during any normal season those months produce little to no activity.Things should ramp up as we get later into the season as it would normally do in a normal season.The chances of seeing something out there increase everyday as move deeper into things.

2005 should NOT be used as an example for any season a it was an anomaly that will not be seen for a very long time.

Why? It has nothing to do with June or July, it has to do with August - Novemeber. Just because some conditions are ripe for development, doesn't make it happen. Each storm is different and each region in the Atlantic can have different conditions at the same time. What will numbers do if we get to Sept 1st with zero or one TCs. And those that are jumping the AP, NOAA did lower high end of projections like they stated, can you dispute that?

The high end of my predictions are 12/6/3 which is an above normal to near normal season.

[windstorm99]

So 10 - 13 more storms with 7-9 of them being Hurricanes and 3 - 5 of those being majors. Low side 10/7/3 seems reasonable. 13/9/5 seems high, escpecially the majors. In 2005 with the ripest of conditions we "only" had 5 majors from August 8th on, and that was with 19 more storms.

I'm not buying it yet.

8-9 named storms with 5-6 hurricanes and 2-3 majors seems more realistic at this time.

Not buying it....Why?Cause we have had very little activity in june and july when during any normal season those months produce little to no activity.Things should ramp up as we get later into the season as it would normally do in a normal season.The chances of seeing something out there increase everyday as move deeper into things.

2005 should NOT be used as an example for any season a it was an anomaly that will not be seen for a very long time.

Why? It has nothing to do with June or July, it has to do with August - Novemeber. Just because some conditions are ripe for development, doesn't make it happen. Each storm is different and each region in the Atlantic can have different conditions at the same time. What will numbers do if we get to Sept 1st with zero or one TCs. And those that are jumping the AP, NOAA did lower high end of projections like they stated, can you dispute that?

The high end of my predictions are 12/6/3 which is an above normal to near normal season.

Well the important thing to keep in mind is that numbers predicted are not important and were they go is were the main focus should be placed.Even a season with 4 named storms can turn out bad if steering currents are not on your side.

[flwxwatcher]

And those that are jumping the AP, NOAA did lower high end of projections like they stated, can you dispute that?

Nope.. News headlines could say less hurricanes Forecast.. or above normal Hurricane season still predicted or above normal number of major hurricanes expected this year and still be correct. Its all on how you want to word it.. I am sure soon enough the T.V. will be filled with on site reporters trying to stand against 100 Mph winds while reporting. I keep waiting for the year when a Reporter tries to one up everyone and ride out in the surf in a Jet-ski to report